- Buffalo’s point spread has thinned to under double-digits vs the Lions on Thanksgiving
- Over 61% of the betting public is grabbing up all those points and taking Detroit to cover
- Get a comprehensive breakdown of the Bills vs Lions public betting splits below
It’s the opening game of the NFL’s Thanksgiving Day triple-header, and it could be a good one as the Buffalo Bills (7-3) are in Motown to take on the Detroit Lions (4-6).
Despite the Lions ripping off three straight wins, they’ve been as high as a 12-point home underdog at some sportsbooks.
This might have something to do with the fact the Bills are the betting favorite in the 2023 Super Bowl odds, and finally regaining their form last week after suffering back-to-back losses.
On the eve before the game, it’s mostly settled with Buffalo as a 9.5-point favorite.
Bills vs Lions ATS Betting Splits
Looking at the latest NFL public betting trends for this matchup, and the public is taking advantage of all those points, with 61% of the bets against the spread.
Part of this has to stem from Buffalo’s play over the last five games, where they’ve lost twice outright as betting favorites. Of their three wins, only one came by double digits.
Detroit has also hung tough as an underdog, running a 5-3 ATS mark in eight games so far this season. They’re also eighth in the NFL in scoring at 25 points per game, and have dropped back-to-back 31-point games in their last two wins.
Proceed with caution, though: in the Bills vs Lions preview, you’ll know the Lions are 0-14 straight up and 3-11 ATS in their last 14 games as a home underdog on Thanksgiving Day.
Buffalo vs Detroit Total Betting Splits
Since games were completed Sunday, this line has consistently moved upwards, starting at 52.5 and settling in at 54.5. points.
The public is far closer to a split on this one, as 54% took the over.
Buffalo’s offense had stalled in consecutive losses to the Jets and Vikings, but that may have been more indicative of the sloppy play by Josh Allen. One of the favorites in the 2023 NFL MVP odds, Allen had thrown two interceptions in three straight games, several of them in the redzone and of the backbreaking variety. He also fumbled on his own goal line, which led to a score.
Last week, Allen played mistake-free, throwing for 195 yards and a score, while Devin Singletary and James Cook each rushed for 86 yards. Buffalo didn’t do anything spectacular, and they still won 31-23 over Cleveland. They’re second in the league in scoring and total offense, and third in passing yards.
The most TD receptions in the NFL
— Maryland Football (@TerpsFootball) November 20, 2022
Detroit also has the worst scoring defense in the NFL, surrendering 28.2 points per game. The over has hit in seven of their 10 games this year. Surprisingly, the Bills have only hit the over three times, but that’s more a tribute to their defense that had been gangbusters to start the year.
If you haven’t yet, perhaps it’s a good time to hit up the prop bets for this one, as there’s some real potential for fireworks.
Bills vs Lions Moneyline Betting Splits
Winning three straight might not seem like a big deal, but for the Lions, it’s a run. They haven’t felt this sort of jubilation since a 5-game fun run in 2016, which, subsequently ended with a loss on Thanksgiving Day.
It seems the public thinks history will somewhat repeat itself, with the Bills taking in 73% of the bets to win outright. The odds started around -400, and settled at around -440, though depending on the online sportsbook, you could grab Buffalo at that starting figure.
Jamaal Williams scores his 10th touchdown of the year! @jswaggdaddy
— NFL (@NFL) November 20, 2022
One of the struggles Buffalo has faced in recent weeks is their decimated defense. A look at the Bills-Lions injury report, and the Bills could still be down DE Greg Rousseau (ankle) and MLB Tremaine Edmunds (groin), two key cogs in their front seven. They’ve already lost safety Micah Hyde (neck) for the year, and are trying to work corner Tre’Davious White back into full form.
Detroit will be missing cornerback Jeff Okudah (concussion), while Jonah Jackson (concussion) and Evan Brown (ankle), Detroit’s starting offensive guards, will both be out.
The Lions are 3-5 on the moneyline as an underdog, and 1-2 as a home ‘dog.
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