Bills vs Steelers Picks, Odds & Starters (Aug 27)

• The Bills are 3.5-point favorites over the Steelers in NFL Preseason action tonight
• Josh Allen and Aaron Rodgers will both sit, but some Buffalo starters will play
• Check out the Bills vs Steelers picks, odds and starters for Aug 27, below

Preseason football wraps up for both Pittsburgh and Buffalo tonight, as the Steelers and Bills meet in their exhibition finales. Buffalo has been a preseason juggernaut so far, outscoring opponents 60-21, and online sportsbooks expect them to take care of business in this matchup. They’ve pegged the Bills as 3.5-point favorites in the latest NFL odds, a number that I believe is way too high.

Kickoff is scheduled for 7pm ET at Buffalo’s new Highmark Stadium, with NFL Network providing the broadcast coverage. Keep reading for my Bills vs Steelers picks, odds and starters for Aug 27, below.

Bills vs Steelers Odds

Odds from various sportsbooks on August 27. Get the bet365 bonus code now and get in on the NFL Preseason action.

As of Thursday afternoon, Buffalo is listed as -154 moneyline favorites, with Pittsburgh coming back as +132 underdogs. The total is painted at 34.5 across the industry, but the spread varies depending on where you look. The number ranges between Bills -2.5 and -3.5, making it imperative you use the best sports betting apps to lock in the most favorable lines.

The NFL public betting splits show us that 73% of the spread tickets are on Buffalo, but those wagers only account for 47% of the money. That means those who bet biggest, typically sharps, are taking the points.

Bills vs Steelers Starters

When it comes to each team’s lineups for tonight, here’s what we know so far. Buffalo will sit NFL MVP odds favorite Josh Allen. He was 6-for-8 in his only preseason action, racking up 111 yards and a score. Allen looked like he was already in mid-season form, so there’s no use for the Bills to risk an injury. That means Kyle Allen and Shane Buechele will handle the bulk of the snaps, and both appear prime candidates for regression.

Kyle Allen is 24-of-28 so far in the exhibition slate, for 236 yards, 1 TD and no picks. Given his career 62% completion rate, and 3% INT rate, I have to believe he’s going to come crashing back to earth. Ditto for Buechele who is 11-of-19 for 161 yards, a TD and no interceptions. The Bills will play some starters, but none of their elite skill position players tonight, or highest graded offensive linemen, so expecting their backup QB’s to continue to light up the opposition seems foolish.

On the Pittsburgh side, Aaron Rodgers won’t play, meaning Penn State alum Drew Allar and Kyle Howard will split QB reps. Both have been Jekyll and Hyde this preseason, looking good in the opener before faltering last week. You have to think their baseline is somewhere in the middle, and they’ll once again be throwing to second, third and fourth stringers. New head coach Mike McCarthy isn’t risking any of his stars tonight, but both Allar and Howard should have ample time to showcase their skills.

Bills vs Steelers Picks

• Steelers +3.5 (-112 at bet365)

Buffalo has looked very much like a true Super Bowl odds contender this preseason, but let’s not forget they beat up on Carolina and Cleveland over the past two weeks. Both of those teams are prime candidates to finish under their NFL win totals, and neither possess the kind of depth that the Steelers do. There’s a reason Pittsburgh wins 9-11 games every season, and it’s not just great coaching. Their roster is deep on both sides of the ball, making them undervalued in this spot.

Tonight’s spread opened at Bills -1.5, but now has ballooned to -3.5. That’s a huge overreaction and a major reason why sharp action is on the Steelers. We need to realize that Buffalo’s backups are simply not as good as the last two weeks suggest, making them a great sell candidate. Pittsburgh meanwhile, presents an excellent buy opportunity. A proven winning organization, fresh off an ugly loss. While the public gobbles up the Bills, the smart money will continue backing the Steelers.