- Plenty of money has been bet on the Bills vs Chiefs Divisional Round matchup thus far
- But which team is the public betting their money on?
- The betting trends for this AFC Divisional Round showdown can be found below
The NFL Divisional Round weekend wraps up with a monster clash between AFC powers, as the Buffalo Bills go on the road to battle the Kansas City Chiefs. The winner will host the Cincinnati Bengals in the AFC Championship, after they stunned the top-seeded Tennessee Titans Saturday.
Looking at the Bills vs Chiefs betting odds, the home team is favored to advance to a 4th-straight conference final, while the Buffalo vs Kansas City player props suggest the scoreboard is in for a workout.
A rematch of last season’s AFC Championship, the NFL public betting trends are leaning slightly towards the visitors, despite both teams looking awfully impressive during Wild Card Weekend. See the breakdown of public money on the spread, game total, and moneyline below.
Bills vs Chiefs Betting Trends
|Team||Spread||ATS Handle%||ATS Bet%||Total||O/U Handle%||O/U Bet%||Moneyline||ML Handle%||ML Bet%|
|Kansas City Chiefs||-1||45%||48%||54.0||20%||33%||-120||43%||34%|
Betting trends as of January 23rd at DraftKings Sportsbook
The sportsbooks are getting exactly what they want to see in this one: the money bet against the spread split almost evenly. At the moment, the Bills as 1-point underdogs are seeing 55% of the money bet against the spread and 52% of the total bets against the spread.
Buffalo is seeing the majority of the moneyline bets and money as well. The bet in this game the public seems to be most confident in is the over (54), which is seeing 80% of the over/under money and 67% of the bets placed on the game total.
Public Betting the Bills to Cover as Slight Underdogs
The Bills and Chiefs opening line started at 2.5 points in favor of the home team, but a full point has been shaved throughout the week. By Sunday morning, it’s wilted all the way to 1-point. Fifty-five percent of the handle has been on the Bills, a 3% jump from yesterday, with 52% of the bet percentage, a slight increase from 51% Saturday.
There are few injuries to report for either team, with KC running back Darrel Williams the lone significant questionable play as he battles a toe injury.
The last time the Bills played the Chiefs, Josh Allen did this:
315 passing yards
59 rushing yards
4 total TDs
— NFL (@NFL) January 19, 2022
In a Week 5 meeting back in October, the visiting Bills blasted the Chiefs 38-20. A lot has happened since then, but Buffalo’s offense was literally perfect the last time out in a 47-17 demolition against the New England Patriots.
Despite a slow start, KC eventually wore out the not-so-good Pittsburgh Steelers 42-21 in their Wild Card performance.
Pitting arguably the two best teams in the playoffs and easily the top two teams left standing in the conference, oddsmakers have moved this line almost as if this was being played on a neutral field.
Bettors Love the Total to Go Over in Expected Shootout
The total between these two teams started off at 53.5, but it’s since settled in at 54, though you can find it at a full-point higher depending where you’re looking. By Saturday, 86% of the handle and 70% of the bets were on the over, but that’s since dropped to 80% of the handle and 67% of the bets.
It’s easily the highest line of the Divisional Round, and rightly so, pitting NFL MVP-worthy pivots Josh Allen and Patrick Mahomes—neither are likely to win the award based on the NFL MVP odds, for the record. It’s clear both sportsbooks and bettors do not see anything in the Bills vs Chiefs weather report that concerns them.
Both pivots are seemingly peaking offensively at just the right time.
Against the Steelers, Mahomes threw for 404 yards five TDs, a performance we hadn’t seen from him since lighting up the Raiders in Week 10. Forced into check-down mode for long stretches of the season, he discovered the big-play strikes the Chiefs have been known for, connecting with Tyreek Hill and Travis Kelce for biggies.
Allen just finished a performance where he had more TD tosses (5) than he did incompletions (4). He led a Buffalo offense that scored majors on all seven possessions with no turnovers, punts or field goals. That’s the first time that’s happened in NFL history.
Josh Allen owning the patriots for a minute and 35 seconds pic.twitter.com/Drm2yu5CI8
— LeSpriteCranberry Fan🥤 (Divisional Round) (@BigMickeyDicky) January 22, 2022
These two have met three times, and the last two games have flown by the over.
Prior to Buffalo’s Week 5 win, these two last met in last year’s AFC Championship game. With a total set at 54.5, the two teams didn’t disappoint, with the Chiefs outlasting the Bills 38-24 to punch their trip to a second straight Super Bowl.
More Money Is on the Bills to Upset the Chiefs
This one started fairly ordinary, with the Bills opening at +124 on the moneyline, with Kansas City favored at -146 odds. By Saturday night, these numbers moved to pick’em range: Buffalo had shortened all the way to -105, while the Chiefs moved to -115.
Sunday morning, the Bills’ moneyline odds lengthened back to +120, while KC slightly moved to -120. The home team is attracting only 43% of the handle (up from 41% Saturday) and just 34% of the bets (down from 36%).