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Browns Odds Now 40-1 for Super Bowl, Win Total 8.5 After Deshaun Watson Suspended for 11 Games

Eric Thompson

by Eric Thompson in NFL Football

Updated Aug 31, 2022 · 5:08 PM PDT

Deshaun Watson hands on waist at training camp
Cleveland Browns quarterback Deshaun Watson, right, and offensive coordinator Alex Van Pelt watch from the sideline during the NFL football team's football training camp in Berea on Monday. Camp Watson 5
  • Deshaun Watson’s suspension has been extended to 11 games following a settlement between the league and the NFLPA
  • Watson will also be fined $5 million and have to undergo professional evaluation and treatment
  • See how the latest suspension could impact the Browns’ title odds below

The NFL didn’t get everything they wanted in their appeal of Deshaun Watson’s six-game suspension, but the quarterback was handed a more palatable ban as he faces 24 separate lawsuits for sexual misconduct accusations.

Watson’s suspension was increased to 11 games by former New Jersey attorney general Peter C. Harvey, who the league tabbed to handle the appeal of the initial ruling by disciplinary officer Sue L. Robinson.

In an interesting schedule quirk, this means the first game Watson will be eligible to return for is Week 13 against his former team the Houston Texans.

As for what the extended suspension means for the Browns’ odds? Obviously, it hasn’t helped their NFL Playoff Odds.

Cleveland Browns Futures Odds

To Win Super Bowl Odds
Buffalo Bills +600
Tampa Bay Buccaneers +750
Kansas City Chiefs +1000
Green Bay Packers +1100
Los Angeles Rams +1100
Los Angeles Chargers +1500
San Francisco 49ers +1600
Baltimore Ravens +1800
Denver Broncos +1800
Cincinnati Bengals +2000
Dallas Cowboys +2000
Indianapolis Colts +2500
Philadelphia Eagles +3000
Arizona Cardinals +4000
Cleveland Browns +4000
Las Vegas Raiders +4000
To Win AFC North Division Odds
Baltimore Ravens +140
Cincinnati Bengals +170
Cleveland Browns +450
Pittsburgh Steelers +800
Browns 2022-23 Win Total Odds
8.5 Wins Ov +110 / Un -140

*SB and Division Odds from Aug 18 at Barstool Sportsbook, win total from Aug 18 at DraftKings.



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Cleveland’s Super Bowl odds have dropped from around +2500 when Watson was only figured to be missing for a third of the year. Now facing the prospect of having Jacoby Brissett start until December, the Browns have dropped big both in terms of Super Bowl chances and division odds.

Cleveland is still third in the AFC North odds, but have slid back to +450, while all their rivals enjoyed marginal gains. The Browns NFL win total odds are still listed at 8.5; perhaps a long Watson suspension was already baked into the total?  Regardless, the under is getting hammered after today’s news.

The Mistake By The Lake?

The Watson signing was clearly a terrible move for Cleveland in terms of PR. But a championship for the title-starved Browns was always going to offset the damage done to their reputation. Now Watson is set to miss over two-thirds of next season, and that could absence could be even longer if he can’t demonstrate change.

Even the rosiest outlook for the 2022 Browns would have Watson returning to the team in the midst of a tight wildcard race in the AFC. That would be a heck of a time for the QB to get his first real game action since 2020.

Browns Backup Options

Brissett is a perfectly fine quarterback, who will allow the rest of this talented Browns roster to at least have a chance on Sundays. That’s about the best they could hope for, even if the team is able to trade for another QB, it won’t be somebody who can elevate Cleveland above average.

Whether Jimmy Garoppolo is really off the board doesn’t matter greatly. He’s not a QB that can carry a team, famously throwing just 27 passes on his way to the Super Bowl with the Niners in 2019: a game they lost because he couldn’t make a big-time throw.

The Browns are spectacular in some positions, solid in others, but face questions at pass catcher and now under center.

When you look at the teams in their title odds neighborhood: the Cardinals, Raiders, Vikings and Dolphins, they all boast passing games I’d trust more than the Browns at this stage of the game.

If you’re backing teams with these long of odds, you need to be able to envision how they’ll win in January. And I have a far easier time seeing Kyler Murray go nuclear or Kirk Cousins finally string together some great games in a weak NFC, than I do the Browns ground and pounding their way through an AFC with Patrick Mahomes, Josh Allen, Joe Burrow, Justin Herbert… need I go on?

There’s no reason to back the Browns on any futures at this point. There may be some value on their win total in a few days when all the dust settles though.


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