- The Buffalo Bills will visit the New England Patriots for Monday Night Football in Week 16
- MNF Picks Record: 1-6 ATS; 3-5 O/U; -8.1 Units
- The Patriots have lost three of four and Cam Newton has a total of 481 passing yards in those contests
The final Monday Night Football game of the year will see the Buffalo Bills visiting the New England Patriots at Gillette Stadium. In years past, it would be the Patriots who are locked into a playoff spot and would be trying to secure a better seed at this point.
This season, it’s the Bills who are in that position while the Pats have already been eliminated from playoff contention.
The Bills are currently the No. 2 seed in the conference but can slip lower if they aren’t careful. They’re in a bit of a must-win situation while the Patriots are home underdogs without much to play for.
Bills vs Patriots Odds
|Buffalo Bills||-320||-7.0 (-108)||Ov 46.5 (-106)|
|New England Patriots||+260||+7.0 (-112)||Un 46.5 (-114)|
All odds as of December 26 at FanDuel
Bills Have Their Swagger Back
The Bills were one of the surprise teams in September, winning four straight to start the year but they hit a bit of a midseason rough patch. After their initial four-game winning streak, they went 3-3 in their next six contests. They’ve regained their momentum since then, and will enter Monday’s contest on a new four-game winning streak.
The play of quarterback Josh Allen has been the key to this team’s success. He has totaled 32 touchdowns and just four interceptions in the team’s 11 wins this season while completing 70.8% of his passes. In the three losses, though, Allen has just six touchdowns, five interceptions and has completed only 61.8% of his passes.
He’s been on fire of late, averaging 331.5 passing yards per game over his last four while totaling 15 touchdowns and just one interception. He only had 154 passing yards in the first meeting with the Patriots, though, so there’s a chance that they stymie him once again.
Newton, Patriots Are Fading Fast
The Patriots enter Monday’s game having lost two straight and three of four. They’re simply not getting much out of their offense these days and a lot of that has to do with the quarterback play. Cam Newton has a total of 481 passing yards over his last four games. On the year, he has just five touchdown passes and 10 interceptions.
While the Patriots defense is competent, the offense ranks 27th in points-per-game with just 20.6. It’s hard to win in the NFL when the offense isn’t providing much support.
What’s The Best Bet?
The general sentiment here is that Buffalo is going to roll but keep in mind that the Patriots defense has rarely played poorly at home this season. The Pats did give up 33 to the San Francisco 49ers earlier this year but they’ve allowed an average of 16.6 points per game in their other five home contests.
Look for the Patriots to keep this closer than expected in a tight, low-scoring game. They’ve only lost at home by a touchdown or more once this season. The under is 5-1 when they face a team with a winning record, 5-1 in home games and 7-2 when the total is between 42.5 and 49. We should see another under in this spot.
Prediction: Under 46.5 (-114), 1 Unit