Can Chiefs’ Mahomes Break Single-Season Passing TD Record?
- Through three games, Chiefs QB Patrick Mahomes has tossed an NFL-high 13 TD passes
- That’s the most by a QB in the first three games of the season in NFL history
- He’s on pace for 69 TD passes, which would shatter the NFL single-season record of 55
Kansas City Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes looks more like a video game avatar than an NFL QB.
Three games into his career as the Chiefs’ starter, Mahomes has fired off 13 TD passes, something no quarterback in the history of the NFL had ever done.
Peyton Manning held the previous mark of 12, set in 2013. The Denver Broncos quarterback set the NFL single-season standard that season with 55 TD passes.
At his current pace, Mahomes would finish the 2018 campaign with 69 TD passes.
Can Mahomes make NFL history as a first-year starter? Sportsbooks don’t believe so. They’ve established a prop bet on this scenario, with odds weighted heavily on the no side.
Odds Patrick Mahomes Breaks Single-Season NFL Passing TD Record
| Mahomes to set single-season NFL TD Pass record | Odds |
|---|---|
| No | -1500 |
| Yes | +700 |
Mahomes would need to average 3.3 TD passes a game the rest of the way to set a new NFL standard. Already, he tossed six TD passes in a game against the Pittsburgh Steelers, one shy of the NFL single-game mark.
Mahomes has the Weapons to do it
Through three games, Mahomes has connected with nine different players for majors.
The NFL record is 13, set by Matt Ryan of the Atlanta Falcons in 2016. Ryan won the NFL MVP award that season, and there’s plenty of early MVP action on Mahomes.
Patrick Mahomes is a real-life video game ?#SFvsKC pic.twitter.com/4J2IZiCTgH
— FOX Sports (@FOXSports) September 23, 2018
Tyreek Hill, rapidly emerging as the NFL’s most dangerous deep threat, has caught three TD passes. All-Pro tight end Travis Kelce and receiver Chris Conley have snared two each.
Four players – Kareem Hunt, Demetrius Harris Demarcus Robinson and De’Anthony Thomas – scored TDs on their only reception of the season.
Hunt led the NFL in rushing as a rookie last season, and his presence in the KC backfield only serves to make the passing game of Mahomes that much more dynamic.
Can Mahomes Do It?
Kansas City hasn’t seen this level of excitement surrounding the Chiefs since the days in the 1960s when they were going to Super Bowls and Len Dawson was targeting the likes of Otis Taylor, Mike Garrett, and Warren McVea.
But even in those wide-open AFL days, Dawson never completed more than 30 TD passes.
NFL Single-Season TD Pass Leaders
| Season | Quarterback | Team | TD Passes |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2013 | Peyton Manning | Broncos | 55 |
| 2007 | Tom Brady | Patriots | 50 |
| 2004 | Peyton Manning | Colts | 49 |
| 1984 | Dan Marino | Dolphins | 48 |
As Mahomes seeks to put his name alongside some legendary NFL QBs, the Chiefs’ remaining 13 games are against teams ranked 19th or worse in pass defense. Mahomes will also face three of the league’s top six pass defenses. In terms of TD passes allowed, he’ll see only two of the bottom 10.
Sportsbooks are correct – the odds are against Mahomes. But it’s going to be fun to watch him try.
An industry veteran, Bob literally taught the course on the history of sports at Elder College. He has worked as a Sports Columnist for Postmedia, appeared as a guest on several radio stations, was the Vice President of the Society For International Hockey Research in Ontario, and written 25 books.
