- Colts’ odds were as long as +3500 before win over Chiefs
- RB Marlon Mack ranks fourth overall in league rushing
- NE, KC are still the teams to beat in the AFC this season
The Indianapolis Colts accomplished something no other team has been able to this season — hold the Kansas City Chiefs’ offense to just 13 points and hand the AFC West leaders their first loss of the year.
The victory moved the Colts into a first-place tie with the Houston Texans at 3-2, but Bovada still lists Indianapolis at +1800 to win the AFC outright this season.
Is there value in betting on the Colts at this price? Here’s a look at the NFL conference odds and stats.
2020 AFC Championship Odds
|Team||Odds at Bovada|
|New England Patriots||+125|
|Kansas City Chiefs||+260|
|Los Angeles Chargers||+2200|
*Odds taken 10/07/19
Odds on The Move
When the odds opened at the beginning of October, the Colts were listed as +3500 underdogs to win the AFC championship. But the Colts shocked the football world on Sunday, not only defeating the powerhouse Chiefs, but also holding the league’s best offense to just 13 points.
The Colts were once at +670 but the odds dropped to +2300 following the announcement that Andrew Luck was retiring.
— SNF on NBC (@SNFonNBC) October 7, 2019
Despite defeating the Chiefs, the Colts have been average on offense through five weeks of action. Quarterback Jacoby Brissett has helped Indy post 113 total points heading into Week 6. The Colts are also averaging 22.6 PPG, which ranks 15th overall.
On defense, the Colts have allowed the 17th fewest yards this season, which isn’t great but was definitely good enough to hold off the Chiefs’ offense.
The Colts have seemed to struggle more against the pass, allowing 242 yards per game this season.
Uncle Shay Sharpe said it best this morning on Undisputed.
— Indy SportsOne (@IndySportsOne) October 7, 2019
Is Jacoby Brissett Good Enough?
Brissett has showed flashes of brilliance in the regular season, completing 108 of 167 passes for 1,062 yards and 10 TDs through five games.
But is the backup turned starting QB good enough to lead the Colts into the playoff spot and challenge for the AFC title come December and January?
The Colts are definitely built for success down the stretch, with running back Marlon Mack off to a tremendous start this season. Mack leads the team and ranks fourth in the NFL in rushing with 470 yards to go along with two touchdowns.
Indianapolis has a tough schedule ahead with four divisional games, two each against the Houston Texans and Jacksonville Jaguars, which are crucial in both regards to their division and conference hopes.
— Pat McAfee (@PatMcAfeeShow) October 7, 2019
Patriots, Chiefs Still the Teams to Beat
The New England Patriots are now the top favorites as the defending Super Bowl champions moved to +125 after keeping their undefeated record intact.
The Chiefs were averaging +230 odds across all sportsbooks, but Bovada’s latest lines show Kansas City at +260, which still has a ton of betting value heading into Week 6.
The Patriots have steadily improved their odds, going from +190 at the start of the season to +125 favorites after improving to 5-0 overall.
At this rate, the Pats could very well become odds-on favorites, especially after the Chiefs dropped their first game of the year.
After the Pats and Chiefs, it’s really open season as to which other team can compete for the AFC championship.
Are the Colts in that mix? Most definitely after defeating the Chiefs. However, Baltimore at +1200 and Houston at +1400 also present a lot of betting value, should the Patriots and Chiefs falter for any reason.
This may be as short as we see the Colts’ odds get for now and even with their recent win over the Chiefs, taking Indy to win the AFC is still considered a risky wager.
Pick: Kansas City Chiefs (+260)
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