- There isn’t much time left to get your 2022 Super Bowl Picks locked in
- SBD’s score predicting formula won more than 30 units this season on its upset picks and top ATS picks
- See its NFL computer pick for Super Bowl 56 as well as SBD’s expert’s picks
If you haven’t been following me on Twitter throughout the 2021-22 NFL season, you have missed out on some big profits. No, it hasn’t exactly been my personal picks bringing in the money, rather the picks from the SBD formula I created. (So … they’re still kind of mine, right?)
Using a variety of team and player stats, trends, and some injury info, my SBD formula predicts a score for every NFL game. Using the margin of victory and ATS margin of victory for each game, I was able to turn the formula’s scores into NFL computer picks with some confidence levels.
We only have one game left in the NFL season: Super Bowl 56 between the LA Rams and Cincinnati Bengals. My SBD formula has made its computer pick for the game. All the experts at SportsBettingDime have also shared their picks below.
NFL Computer Picks for Super Bowl 56
SportsBettingDime’s score predicting formula went 51-36-3 on its top five ATS picks from each week of the 2021-22 NFL regular season. Treating the ties as null, since you get your money back, that’s good for a winning percentage of 58.6%.
If you had bet $100 on each game, you would have came out with an extra $1,735.90. Based on the $8,700 investment ($100 x 87 games), your ROI would have been 11.91%. If you want that in units, you would have been +10.41 units at the end of the regular season.
It has now gone 7-5 against the spread in the playoffs, adding another $136.30 if you’re betting $100 per game, or 1.36 units in more objective terms.
Updated betting records entering #SuperBowl
▪️My @SBD formula = 7-5 ATS & 8-4 on Totals
▪️Public = 6-6 ATS & 3-9 on Totals
— Matt McEwan (@SBD_Matt) January 31, 2022
But this isn’t even where the SBD formula thrived. It absolutely crushed upset picks this season, going 39-37 straight up when it predicted an underdog to win. This may not look like much at first based off the 51.3% win rate, but the wins really counted since you were getting better than +100 odds on all teams.
On strictly upset picks, it won 23.38 units. If you had bet $100 on each of these underdogs to win, you would have made $2,338. This is an ROI of 30%!! The SBD formula has stumbled a touch on upset picks in the playoffs, losing 0.95 units. (Still +22.43 units on upset picks for the season.)
My @SBD formula did miss on the upset pick, though
— Matt McEwan (@SBD_Matt) January 31, 2022
The formula has also had a really nice run on betting over/unders in the playoffs, going 8-4 so far.
All this is to say, the formula is working! So let’s take a look at its picks for Super Bowl 56. Let’s start with its predicted score for the 2022 Super Bowl:
- Los Angeles Rams: 25.1
- Cincinnati Bengals: 23.7
You can throw out all the talk about upset picks above, since the formula is siding with the favorite to win this one. It has the game ending with a smaller margin of victory for the Rams than the spread would suggest, however.
The Rams’ predicted margin of victory based off the score above is just 1.4 points. Even though it’s saying the Rams will win, there isn’t going to be any value in betting them to win. The value based on the predicted score lies in the Bengals moneyline at +170 at DraftKings Sportsbook.
Those +170 odds imply a 37% probability for the Bengals to win. If we look at the predicted margin of loss for Cincinnati (1.4 points) and round it up to a 1.5-point spread, we get moneyline odds of +105 (or so), which turns into a 48.8% implied probability to win the game. This gives you a pretty good edge, but you are still more likely than not to lose the bet. So play the moneyline as you feel comfortable.
The formula isn’t overly confident in betting either side to cover the spread either. Based on its predicted score, it has the Bengals covering with an ATS margin of victory of only 3.1 points. So it’s saying take the points with Cincinnati, but don’t hammer it based solely on its advice. (You can check out some of the major wagers on the big game so far on our page tracking the Super Bowl’s biggest bets.)
Unfortunately, the formula is also predicting a final score where the total points are very close to the betting line being offered at sportsbooks (48.5). Its predicted score has a total of 48.8 points being scored, which is only over the total by 0.3 points. Proceed with caution on this one.
SBD Formula’s Super Bowl Picks:
- Moneyline Pick: LA Rams (-175 at Caesars Sportsbook)
- ATS Pick: Bengals +4.5 (best line at BetMGM)
- Total Pick: Over 48.5 (best line at Barstool Sportsbook)
Expert Picks for 2022 Super Bowl
SportsBettingDime’s experts have been submitting winning NFL picks all season. They have each shared their predicted score for the Super Bowl, best bet, and favorite Super Bowl prop. You can jump to one of them below or continue scrolling to see them all.
Matt McEwan – SBD’s Editor-in-Chief & Brains Behind the Formula
- Super Bowl Predicted Score: Rams 24 – 21
- Best Bet: Bengals +4.5 (-110) at BetMGM
- Favorite Super Bowl Prop Bet: First Offensive Play of the Game to Be a Pass (+115) at DraftKings
I’ll keep the commentary on my pick pretty quick, since you’ve probably realized it looks very similar to the pick above. Boring? Sure. But how can the man who created this wildly successful formula turn his back on it now? I live and die by my SBD formula. (I am also very tempted to go with the Bengals moneyline as well, especially since historic ATS Super Bowl trends say the team who wins the game almost always covers the spread.)
Moving to my favorite prop for the big game, I really like the odds DraftKings is offering on the first play of the game being a pass.
Three of the last five Super Bowls have opened with a pass—the Patriots ran the ball on the first play of Super Bowl 53 against the Rams. The Rams’ first offensive play has been a pass in two of their three playoff games so far, and the same is true for the Bengals as well. These are not conservative offenses.
These two defenses rank fifth and sixth, respectively, against the run as well. At +115 odds, I think this is a great bet. Other sportsbooks are listing pass around +100 odds.
Sascha Paruk – NFL Editor
- Super Bowl Predicted Score: Bengals 30 – 27
- Best Bet: Bengals +4 (-108) at FanDuel Sportsbook
- Favorite Super Bowl Prop Bet: Ja’Marr Chase Under 39.5 Receiving Yards (+595) at Barstool Sportsbook
One plausible game script sees Rams DC Raheem Morris paying extra-close attention to Ja’Marr Chase. Not counting the final game of the regular season – when Chase only played a few snaps – he was held under 39.5 yards four times in the other 16 games.
We only need a 15% implied probability for these +595 odds to be worth a wager.
Ryan Metivier – NFL Editor
- Super Bowl Predicted Score: Rams 27 – 23
- Best Bet: Bengals +4.5 at BetMGM
- Favorite Super Bowl Prop Bet: Both Teams to Score 1+ FG + Over 2.5 Total FGs (-150)
The Rams have been here before, just three years ago. And have been building towards this second chance since with high-priced veterans and the trade for Matthew Stafford. I think Sean McVay will have learned from his first Super Bowl experience. The Rams defense versus the Bengals offensive line is a huge mismatch. Joe Burrow was sacked the most of any QB in 2021, 51 times. That’s four more than anyone else. The Rams had the third-most sacks on the season with 50. Aaron Donald, Leonard Floyd and Von Miller should be causing chaos for Burrow all night. The Bengals story is great. But I think you need to walk before you run, fail before you succeed, as the saying goes.
Keep in mind the Bengals were getting boat raced in the first half in the AFC Championship. If the Chiefs kick a field goal to close out the half and Mahomes does anything at all in the second half, KC is in this game. The Rams have taken their knocks and will prevail this time around, albeit in a close win.
Looking to my FG parlay prop, the Bengals’ Evan McPherson has been so money there is actual talk of him as a potential, yet unlikely, Super Bowl MVP. He’s kicked 4/4 field goals in all three playoff games this year. The Rams’ Matt Gay has gone 2/2, 3/4 and 2/3 in the playoffs himself. Both QBs should be able to move the ball and put each of these reliable kickers into range for a few field goals in this game.
Mitch Robson – SBD Editor
- Super Bowl Predicted Score: Bengals 26 – 24
- Best Bet: Bengals +4 (-108) at FanDuel
- Favorite Super Bowl Prop Bet: Leonard Floyd to Record a Sack (+130) at DraftKings
To avoid regurgitating the talking points we’ve heard for two weeks of build-up, I actually think the Cincinnati defensive front against the Rams O-line is what wins Cincy this game. The Bengals have been able to generate consistent pressure just sending three or four linemen – and I expect Sam Hubbard and Trey Hendrickson to make their presence felt early and often on Matthew Stafford, who’s relying on a 40-year old Andrew Whitworth at LT.
Leonard Floyd has a great chance to record a sack, and you’re getting him at plus-odds to do so. Seven of his 9.5 sacks came at SoFi Stadium this season, and with Cincy likely double teaming Aaron Donald and Von Miller as much as possible, Floyd should have some 1-on-1 matchups to exploit on the edge.
Ryan Sura – SBD Editor / Bengals Fan
- Super Bowl Predicted Score: Bengals 34 – 31
- Best Bet: Bengals +4 (-108) at FanDuel
- Favorite Super Bowl Prop Bet: Cooper Kupp Longest Reception Over 28.5 (-135) at DraftKings
The Bengals have upset everyone to this point, so why start betting against them now? I understand the Rams have an elite pass rush with Aaron Donald running ship, but is it THAT much better than the Chiefs or Titans? Joe Burrow is the number one ranked QB under pressure this season, so at this point his bad offensive line isn’t as much of factor anymore. The Titans sacked him eight times and they still won that game. Joe Burrow is simply ready for the big moment.
I do really love Kupp over 28.5 longest reception. He’s hit this prop in 15 out of 20 games this season and is averaging 36 yards as his average longest reception this year.
You can see more of our Super Bowl content below: