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NFL Conference Championship Props – Best Player Props to Bet for Sunday, January 30

Matt McEwan

by Matt McEwan in NFL Football

Jan 28, 2022 · 7:26 PM PST

Joe Mixon of the Bengals with the football in his hands
Cincinnati Bengals running back Joe Mixon (28) celebrates after his touchdown during the second half of an NFL football game against the Pittsburgh Steelers, Sunday, Nov. 28, 2021, in Cincinnati. (AP Photo/Emilee Chinn)
  • Player props for the NFL Conference Championships are widely available at online sportsbooks
  • We’ve gathered the player over/unders and touchdown odds, and highlighted the best player prop picks for Sunday
  • See the NFL player props Matt McEwan is betting for the AFC and NFC Championships below

With the NFL Conference Championships coming up on Sunday, January 30, we have just one more NFL Sunday this season that contains multiple games. Please join me in honoring this Sunday by betting a good handful of NFL player props.

I have gathered all the passing, rushing, and receiving over/unders, as well as the anytime touchdown odds and odds to score the first touchdown for both the AFC and NFC Championships. Even with fewer NFL props to choose from, I had no difficulty in highlighting eight that I’ll be betting this weekend.

I went 4-5 (+0.58 units) last week, and am now +1.32 units in the playoffs. Looking back further, I am +7.94 units in my last 14 weeks. You’ll find my picks in each section below the odds tables.

Passing | Rushing | Receiving | Touchdown Props

NFL Passing Props

Quarterback Completions Passing Yards Passing TDs
Joe Burrow (CIN) 24.5 (Ov -130 | Un +100) 288.5 (Ov -135 | Un -105) 1.5 (Ov -215 | Un +160)
Patrick Mahomes (KC) 26.5 (Ov -105 | Un -125) 293.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115) 2.5 (Ov -105 | Un -125)
Jimmy Garoppolo (SF) 20.5 (Ov -105 | Un -125) 232.5 (Ov -105 | Un -115) 1.5 (Ov -105 | Un -130)
Matthew Stafford (LAR) 23.5 (Ov -130 | Un -105) 279.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115) 1.5 (Ov -230 | Un +165)

All props as of January 28.

It’s not a surprise to see Patrick Mahomes with the highest over/under for passing yards in the NFL Conference Championships. Mahomes has been on a tear through two games in the playoffs so far. His betting line for Sunday sits at 293.5, with Joe Burrow a close second at 288.5.


Jimmy Garoppolo, on the other hand, has the lowest passing yards over/under at 232.5. Matthew Stafford’s betting line is set at 279.5.

Are you a little new to betting player props? Check out our how-to guide on prop betting.

Best Passing Props to Bet for NFL Conference Championships

1) Patrick Mahomes OVER 290.5 Passing Yards (-114) at FanDuel Sportsbook; risk 1 unit

Patrick Mahomes hates losing. He doesn’t lose often, but when he does, he generally gets revenge.

Looking to this season, Mahomes threw for 260 yards, three touchdowns, and two interceptions in his first game against the Chargers this season—far from a performance he would be satisfied with. The Chiefs lost the game 30-24. He responded in their second meeting this season with 410 yards, three touchdowns, and one interception.

He also lost to Buffalo earlier this year, where he threw for 272 yards, two touchdowns, and two interceptions—again, not a very Mahomes-like game. His answer was 378 yards and three touchdowns in the Divisional Round against the same Bills.

We even saw it back in the 2019 season, when Mahomes went 19-of-35 for 273 yards, three touchdowns, and one interception in a loss to the Texans. He came back with 321 yards and five touchdowns in a 51-31 playoff win over the Texans that same season.

In Week 17, Mahomes lost to the Bengals, posting 259 yards and two touchdowns—not exactly a bad outing, but not one he’s writing home about either. He’s going to rip this Cincinnati defense apart on Sunday. (Hence why the Chiefs are as big as 7.5-point favorites against the Bengals on Sunday.)

2) Matthew Stafford UNDER 282.5 Passing Yards (-110) at BetMGM; risk 1 unit

Matthew Stafford was absolutely fantastic last weekend against the Buccaneers. He threw for 366 yards and two touchdowns, posting a 121.2 passer rating. But I feel that’s making sportsbooks / the public forget about his two games against the 49ers this season.

In Week 10, Stafford completed 26 of 41 passes for just 243 yards, one touchdown, and two interceptions against the Niners. This was a game the Rams lost 31-10 in San Francisco. In Week 18, which was a very important game for the Rams with the NFC West title on the line, he completed 21 of 32 passes for 238 yards, three touchdowns, and two interceptions.

Simply put, he has not been very good against San Francisco this season. He’s only averaging 240.5 passing yards per game. But not many quarterbacks have been very good against this 49ers defense that ranks sixth against the pass.

They just held Aaron Rodgers to 225 yards and Dak Prescott to 254 in the playoffs. San Francisco has not allowed a player to throw for 280 yards since Week 14 when Joe Burrow did it. They’re allowing an average of just 220.8 passing yards per game in their last six contests. Outside of Burrow, Jared Goff (in Week 1) is the only other player this season to throw for at least 280 yards against this defense.

NFL Rushing Props

Player Rush Attempts Rush Yards Rushing + Receiving Yards
Joe Mixon (CIN) 15.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115) 55.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115) 90.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115)
Clyde Edwards-Helaire (KC) 37.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115)
Patrick Mahomes (KC) 29.5 (Ov -110 | Un -120)
Deebo Samuel (SF) 39.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115) 97.5 (Ov -114 | Un -114)
Elijah Mitchell (SF) 17.5 (Ov -110 | Un -120) 69.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115) 84.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115)
Cam Akers (LAR) 17.5 (Ov -110 | Un -120) 63.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115) 85.5 (Ov -110 | Un -125)

Elijah Mitchell has the highest over/under for rushing yards this weekend, with his betting line set at 69.5. Cam Akers follows closely behind at 63.5, and Joe Mixon’s is set at 55.5. No one else has an over/under of at least 40 for Sunday’s games.

Best Rushing Props to Bet for NFL Conference Championships

1) Deebo Samuel OVER 39.5 Rushing Yards (-114) at Barstool Sportsbook; risk 0.5 units

The Rams only allowed 3.9 yards per carry this regular season, which was fifth-best in the NFL. In 19 games this season, which includes their two playoff games, they have only allowed more than 92 rushing yards seven times. Two of those games came against the 49ers.

San Francisco rushed for 156 and 135 yards against LA in their two meetings this season. Deebo Samuel accounted for 36 and 45 of those rushing yards, respectively. What’s to note here is that he racked up the 36 yards in the first game on only five carries (7.2 yards per carry), and the 45 on eight carries (5.63 yards per carry).

In the Niners’ two playoff games thus far, Deebo has seen ten carries in each. He had never seen more than eight carries in a regular season game. Kyle Shanahan wants to ensure Deebo has every opportunity to put his stamp on the game, and he has been the 49ers’ catalyst on offense in both.

Shanahan’s zone running scheme obviously gives the Rams some trouble, and I suspect San Francisco to continue taking the ball out of Jimmy Garoppolo’s hands. I like Deebo to see another 10+ carries in this one, especially with the 49ers only being 3.5-point underdogs. With that type of volume, this rushing over/under is too low.

NFL Receiving Props

Player Receptions Receiving Yards Longest Reception
C.J. Uzomah (CIN) 3.5 (Ov -155 | Un +115) 34.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115) 15.5 (Ov -125 | Un -105)
Ja’Marr Chase (CIN) 5.5 (Ov -155 | Un +115) 85.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115) 27.5 (Ov -120 | Un -110)
Joe Mixon (CIN) 3.5 (Ov -165 | Un +125) 30.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115) 14.5 (Ov -105 | Un -125)
Tee Higgins (CIN) 5.5 (Ov -105 | Un -125) 73.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115) 25.5 (Ov -110 | Un -120)
Tyler Boyd (CIN) 3.5 (Ov -165 | Un +125) 39.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115) 17.5 (Ov -120 | Un -110)
Byron Pringle (KC) 3.5 (Ov -145 | Un +110) 39.5 (Ov +110 | Un -150) 17.5 (Ov -120 | Un -110)
Mecole Hardman (KC) 25.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115) 14.5 (Ov -105 | Un -125)
Travis Kelce (KC) 6.5 (Ov +115 | Un -155) 76.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115) 23.5 (Ov -125 | Un -105)
Tyreek Hill (KC) 6.5 (Ov -120 | Un -110) 78.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115) 24.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115)
Brandon Aiyuk (SF) 3.5 (Ov -155 | Un +115) 48.5 (Ov -105 | Un -130) 21.5 (Ov -110 | Un -120)
Deebo Samuel (SF) 4.5 (Ov +100 | Un -130) 53.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115) 21.5 (Ov -120 | Un -110)
Elijah Mitchell (SF) 1.5 (Ov -165 | Un +120) 10.5 (Ov -120 | Un -110) 8.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115)
George Kittle (SF) 4.5 (Ov -145 | Un +110) 52.5 (Ov -120 | Un -110) 20.5 (Ov -110 | Un -120)
Jauan Jennings (SF) 25.5 (Ov -110 | Un -120)
Kyle Juszczyk (SF) 1.5 (Ov +110 | Un -145) 8.5 (Ov -120 | Un -110)
Cam Akers (LAR) 2.5 (Ov -160 | Un +120) 18.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115) 10.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115)
Cooper Kupp (LAR) 7.5 (Ov -145 | Un +110) 101.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115) 28.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115)
Odell Beckham Jr (LAR) 4.5 (Ov +120 | Un -160) 52.5 (Ov -130 | Un -110) 21.5 (Ov -110 | Un -120)
Tyler Higbee (LAR) 3.5 (Ov -170 | Un +130) 40.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115) 17.5 (Ov -120 | Un -110)
Van Jefferson (LAR) 2.5 (Ov +100 | Un -130) 30.5 (Ov -130 | Un -105) 17.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115)

Cooper Kupp has the weekend’s highest receiving yards over/under with a line of 101.5 as he takes on the 49ers for a third time this season. Ja’Marr Chase, who has been red-hot lately, has the next highest line at 85.5.

Best Receiving Props to Bet for NFL Conference Championships

1) Tyreek Hill OVER 76.5 Receiving Yards (-114) at FanDuel Sportsbook; risk 1 unit

Remember those two Chiefs revenge games from this season that I discussed in the Mahomes pick? (It was the second games against both the Chargers and Bills after having lost to them earlier in the season.) Tyreek Hill had 13 targets in each of those revenge games, turning them into 12 receptions for 148 yards and a touchdown against the Chargers, and 11 receptions for 150 yards and a touchdown against the Bills last week.

When Mahomes is out for blood, he looks for Hill. With Hill also having a pretty quiet game against the Bengals in Week 17—just six receptions for 40 yards on ten targets—I foresee Hill being force-fed some targets to get him going early.

While I don’t mind the over on Hill’s receptions line (6.5), I prefer the receiving yards line due to his explosiveness. He only needs a few receptions to rack up 77+ yards.

2) Joe Mixon OVER 29.5 Receiving Yards (-113) at Barstool Sportsbook; risk 0.5 units

After Ja’Marr Chase absolutely roasted the Chiefs in Week 17 for 266 yards and three touchdowns, and has followed it up with back-to-back 100+ yard performances in the playoffs, I simply cannot see Steve Spagnuolo going into this game without a plan to slow the rookie.

I appreciate the respect he is giving the rest of the Bengals offensive weapons in saying the Chiefs will not be able to just “commit two people to it and you’re home free.” I also agree with him to an extent. It’s not like Chase is the entire offense. Tee Higgins, Tyler Boyd, and C.J. Uzomah are also capable of making plays—not Ja’Marr Chase-like plays, though.

So I do feel there will be extra attention given to Chase, but I don’t feel any of the three receivers named above will be the beneficiaries. I think it will be Joe Mixon.

The whole world saw how much trouble Cincinnati has protecting their quarterback last week, when Joe Burrow was sacked nine times by the Titans. This week he’ll have Chris Jones, Frank Clark, and Melvin Ingram coming after him.

I foresee the result being more quick dump offs to Mixon in the flat. In his last four games, Mixon is averaging 6.5 targets and 47.3 receiving yards. He has gone over 29.5 receiving yards in three of the four. I expect to see a very similar output for Mixon in this one too, especially with the likelihood of Cincinnati needing points.

Touchdown Props

Team Odds to Score 1st TD Odds to Score Any TD
Joe Mixon (CIN) +650 -125
Ja’Marr Chase (CIN) +850 +100
Tee Higgins (CIN) +1400 +190
C.J. Uzomah (CIN) +1600 +230
Tyler Boyd (CIN) +1800 +260
Travis Kelce (KC) +650 -130
Tyreek Hill (KC) +700 -125
Jerick McKinnon (KC) +1000 +140
Clyde Edwards-Helaire (KC) +1200 +150
Byron Pringle (KC) +1400 +190
Deebo Samuel (SF) +650 -110
Elijah Mitchell (SF) +850 +120
George Kittle (SF) +1100 +175
Brandon Aiyuk (SF) +1600 +260
Jauan Jennings (SF) +2200 +360
Cooper Kupp (LAR) +500 -150
Cam Akers (LAR) +750 +115
Odell Beckham Jr (LAR) +900 +140
Tyler Higbee (LAR) +1300 +210
Van Jefferson (LAR) +1700 +280

Cooper Kupp has the best odds to score a touchdown in the NFL Conference Championships. He’s given -150 odds to find the endzone, which converts to an implied probability of 60%. His +500 odds to score his respective game’s first touchdown are also the best odds for Sunday.

Anytime Touchdown Picks for Conference Championships

Here’s who I like to find the endzone and why:

  1. Jerick McKinnon anytime touchdown (+175): McKinnon has taken advantage of the opportunity that presented itself with both Clyde Edwards-Helaire and Darrel Williams getting hurt. He has now started in both of Kansas City’s playoff games and is seeing a lot of looks. McKinnon has seen 22 carries and 13 targets in the last two weeks, and has also scored a touchdown in two of the last three. There are some sportsbooks giving McKinnon shorter than even odds to score, but you can find him at this price at Caesars Sportsbook. (0.33 units)
  2. CJ Uzomah anytime touchdown (+240): With plenty of attention likely being devoted to Ja’Marr Chase, I am looking for secondary players from the Bengals offense to get red zone looks. Uzomah has seen at least six targets in four straight games now and caught a touchdown against the Raiders in the Wild Card round. (0.25 units)
  3. Elijah Mitchell anytime touchdown (+125): Mitchell didn’t pull through for us last weekend, but if sportsbooks are going to leave this bad line out there, I have to bet it again. The rookie back has a touchdown in seven of 13 games this season, and is still the lead back of a run-first offense. (0.25 units)

Enjoy the last NFL Sunday of the season that features more than one game! Check out our NFL odds page before you make any moneyline, against the spread, or game total bet to ensure you get the best line possible.

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