Conference Championships NFL Player Props – Best Player Props to Bet for AFC & NFC Title Games
- NFL Conference Championship props are open to bet on for the AFC and NFC Title Games
- Get our top props for Jalen Hurts, Brock Purdy, Travis Kelce and more on Sunday, January 29, 2023
- See all the passing, rushing, and receiving lines, as well as touchdown odds, plus our best player prop picks below
It’s Conference Championship weekend and we’ve pulled together our top 12 NFL player props for the AFC and NFC title games.
Last week our Divisional props went 5-6 for -1.49 units. Our NFL season record on the year overall is 91-86.
Read on for this week’s top NFL player props for the Conference Championships here based on the prop totals released as of this writing.
Passing | Rushing | Receiving | Touchdown Props
NFL Passing Props
|Quarterback||Completions||Passing Yards||Passing TDs|
|Brock Purdy (SF)||19.5 (Ov -130 | Un +100)||222.5 (Ov -110 | Un -120)||1.5 (Ov +125 | Un -155)|
|Jalen Hurts (PHI)||21.5 (Ov -120 | Un -110)||250.5 (Ov -105 | Un -125)||1.5 (Ov +100 | Un -130)|
|Joe Burrow (CIN)||25.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115)||278.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115)||1.5 (Ov -180 | Un +145)|
|Patrick Mahomes (KC)||25.5 (Ov -110 | Un -130)||285.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115)||2.5 (Ov +160 | Un -195)|
All prop odds as of January 27. Be sure to check out this unique DraftKings Sportsbook promo code to bet on the NFL this weekend
Patrick Mahomes has the highest passing total of all four quarterbacks on Sunday at 285.5.
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Best Passing Props to Bet for Divisional Round Playoffs
1) Jalen Hurts under 250.5 passing yards (-125); risk 1 unit at DraftKings Sportsbook
Jalen Hurts’ passing yards prop for the Conference Championships is set at 247.5. Even in a demolition of the Giants last week winning 38-7, Hurts threw the ball for only 154 yards.
In fact, only five times in 16 games this season has Hurts thrown for a total amount of yards that wouls excede this total. Two of those five times came way back in September. It’s only happened twice in his past nine games. One of those games (315 yards) came against the Bears. Another (380 yards), came against the Titans; two of the weaker pass defenses in the league this season. Hurts has actually finished below 230 yards passing in six of his past eight games.
Now the 49ers may be stronger versus run (1st) than the pass (20th), but are still the league’s top defense in overall yards allowed per game.
2) Joe Burrow over 1.5 passing touchdowns (-175); risk 1 unit at DraftKings Sportsbook
Playoff Joe was solid last week in the snow in Buffalo throwing for 242 yards and two scores in a 27-10 win. He’s thrown 35 touchdown passes this season and multiple TD passes in 12 games. In Burrow’s last seven games he’s gone over 1.5 passing touchdowns five times. The only two times he didn’t were in both games against the Baltimore Ravens.
The Chiefs aren’t anything special defending the pass (18th in YPG allowed) and should leave some open spaces for Burrow to find his arsenal of receiving weapons.
Don't sleep on the @Eagles defense:
🦅 T-3rd most sacks in a single season in NFL history (70)
🦅 Most TFLs this season (97)
🦅 Fewest passing yards allowed this season (3,057) pic.twitter.com/YVhtST6lxX
— NFL on Prime (@NFLonPrime) January 23, 2023
3) Brock Purdy under 222.5 passing yards (-120); risk 1 unit at DraftKings Sportsbook
Brock Purdy’s passing prop total has ticked down just slightly from 220.5 to 219.5 and now 222.5. However, Purdy has fallen under these numbers in five of his eight games.
The Eagles’ defense is stout. Both teams’ defenses are. But Philly ranks second in yards per game allowed, first in passing yards per game allowed and first in sacks, among many impressive defensive stats. Opposing QBs against the Eagles have also only averaged 183 passing yards per game against them, falling under this total in 13 of the past 14 games.
NFL Rushing Props
|Player||Rush Attempts||Rush Yards||Rushing + Receiving Yards|
|Christian McCaffrey (SF)||–||57.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115)||90.5 (Ov -114 | Un -114)|
|Deebo Samuel (SF)||–||21.5 (Ov -114 | Un -114)||75.5 (Ov -114 | Un -114)|
|Elijah Mitchell (SF)||–||–||–|
|Jalen Hurts (PHI)||9.5 (Ov -135 | Un +105)||47.5 (Ov -105 | Un -125)||–|
|Kenneth Gainwell (PHI)||–||11.5 (Ov -125 | Un -105)||23.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115)|
|Miles Sanders (PHI)||13.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115)||51.5 (Ov -105 | Un -125)||60.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115)|
|Joe Mixon (CIN)||14.5 (Ov -105 | Un -125)||58.5 (Ov -120 | Un -110)||84.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115)|
|Samaje Perine (CIN)||–||17.5 (Ov -125 | Un -105)||38.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115)|
|Isian Pacheco (KC)||11.5 (Ov -120 | Un -110)||47.5 (Ov -135 | Un +105)||57.5 (Ov -120 | Un -110)|
|Jerick McKinnon (KC)||–||27.5 (Ov -120 | Un -110)||61.5 (Ov -120 | Un -110)|
The Bengals’ Joe Mixon is expected to have a big day on the ground as oddsmakers have given him a rushing total of 58.5 yards.
Best Rushing Props to Bet for Divisional Round Playoffs
1) Isiah Pacheco over 11.5 rushing attempts (-120); risk 1 unit DraftKings Sportsbook
Isiah Pacheco had 12 rushing attempts last week and that is exactly where his total is set this week at 11.5. While he only had 8 and 9 attempts in Weeks 18 and 17, prior to that he ran the ball 14, 15, 13, 14, 15, 13, 14, 22, 15 and 16 times. Those total attempts would have seen him go over this prop in 8/10 recent games. Throw in the fact that Mahomes could be limited in his scrambling this weekend, and Pacheco may be leaned on more heavily.
2) Kenneth Gainwell over 23.5 rushing and receiving yards (-115); risk 1 unit DraftKings Sportsbook
Miles Sanders may be the lead back in Philly, but Kennett Gainwell has been heating up in recent weeks to form a two-headed monster in the Eagles’ backfield. Last week Sanders rushed for 90 yards on 17 carries and Gainwell rushed for 112 on 12 carries.
Those were by far the most carries and yards Gainwell has seen all season rushing. His previous highs were eight carries for 39 yards back on November 27. His rushing totals in the past four games have been 122, 35, 0 (no carries) and 17.
Out of the backfield, Gainwell has added receiving yardage of 9, 7, 17 and 42 yards in the past month. That means he would’ve cashed this rushing and receiving total prop of 23.5 in 3/4 games, falling short by just five yards in the other. San Fran also gives up an average of 32.4 YPG receiving to opposing running backs.
NFL Receiving Props
|Player||Receptions||Receiving Yards||Longest Reception|
|Brandon Aiyuk (SF)||3.5 (Ov -110 | Un -120)||46.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115)||20.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115)|
|Christian McCaffrey (SF)||–||32.5 (Ov -110 | Un -120)||–|
|Deebo Samuel (SF)||4.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115)||51.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115)||21.5 (Ov -110 | Un -120)|
|George Kittle (SF)||3.5 (Ov -155 | Un +125)||46.5 (Ov -110 | Un -120)||20.5 (Ov -110 | Un -120)|
|Jauan Jennings (SF)||2.5 (Ov +140 | Un -175)||22.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115)||14.5 (Ov +100 | Un -130)|
|A.J. Brown (PHI)||4.5 (Ov -165 | Un +135)||70.5 (Ov -130 | Un +100)||26.5 (Ov -110 | Un -120)|
|Dallas Goedert (PHI)||4.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115)||45.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115)||18.5 (Ov -120 | Un -110)|
|DeVonta Smith (PHI)||5.5 (Ov +115 | Un -145)||66.5 (Ov -120 | Un -110)||24.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115)|
|Quez Watkins (PHI)||1.5 (Ov +105 | Un -135)||15.5 (Ov +100 | Un -130)||11.5 (Ov -110 | Un -120)|
|Hayden Hurst (CIN)||3.5 (Ov -160 | Un +130)||34.5 (Ov -110 | Un -120)||15.5 (Ov -105 | Un -125)|
|Ja’Marr Chase (CIN)||6.5 (Ov -140 | Un +110)||83.5 (Ov -125 | Un -105)||25.5 (Ov -110 | Un -120)|
|Joe Mixon (CIN)||3.5 (Ov +115 | Un -150)||22.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115)||11.5 (Ov -120 | Un -110)|
|Tee Higgins (CIN)||4.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115)||57.5 (Ov -130 | Un +100)||22.5 (Ov -110 | Un -120)|
|Tyler Boyd (CIN)||3.5 (Ov +125 | Un -155)||33.5 (Ov -130 | Un +100)||16.5 (Ov -120 | Un -110)|
|Jerick McKinnon (KC)||3.5 (Ov -150 | Un +120)||30.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115)||14.5 (Ov -105 | Un -125)|
|JuJu Smith-Schuster (KC)||4.5 (Ov +120 | Un -150)||48.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115)||19.5 (Ov -120 | Un -110)|
|Kadarius Toney (KC)||3.5 (Ov +100 | Un -130)||35.5 (Ov +105 | Un -135)||17.5 (Ov -110 | Un -120)|
|Marquez Valdes-Scantling (KC)||1.5 (Ov -195 | Un +160)||27.5 (Ov +105 | Un -135)||17.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115)|
|Travis Kelce (KC)||7.5 (Ov +120 | Un -150)||78.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115)||22.5 (Ov -120 | Un -110)|
Some of the highest receiving totals for props this weekend are Travis Kelce at 78.5 and Ja’Marr Chase at 83.5 yards.
Best Receiving Props to Bet for Divisional Round Playoffs
1) Travis Kelce over 6.5 receptions (-148); risk 1 unit at FanDuel Sportsbook
Maybe the most obvious inclusion into your Conference Championship props has to be Travis Kelce. The Chiefs’ tight end caught 14 of 17 passes last week for 98 yards and two scores. In his previous four games prior to the playoffs, he had games of 6, 7, 6 and 10 catches. This total of 6.5 receptions falls right in line with his performances in the final weeks of the regular season.
Now last week, the Chiefs faced a Jaguars team that was terrible at defending the middle of the field against tight ends. That won’t be the case against the Bengals, however, they did give up the eighth-most catches to tight ends (89, tied with the Giants) during the regular season.
But what makes the Kelce receptions prop the most appealing is that with Patrick Mahomes dealing with a high ankle injury, Kelce will likely become a safe check-down option. If Mahomes is limited and not able to scramble or needs to release the ball quicker, or worse if he can’t play and backup Chad Henne is forced to play, either of those scenarios will surely see both quarterbacks looking for quick passes over the middle to Kelce.
Operation Find Travis Kelce for Kansas City 🚨 pic.twitter.com/rEj5ZAmJu0
— NFL on ESPN (@ESPNNFL) January 21, 2023
2) Devonta Smith over 24.5 longest reception (-110); risk 1 unit at DraftKings Sportsbook
This isn’t the type of passing prop I usually like to target. But looking at recent games for Devonta Smith shows he’s had a reception for 25 yards or longer in five of his past seven games. Last week he caught six passes for 61 yards with most of those yards coming from a 40-yard catch. His longest catch in recent weeks has been 40, 16, 28, 23, 45, 41 and 34. The Eagles may find more success passing versus throwing on the 49ers’ defense, which could give Smith some chances to break off a big catch and run.
2) Dallas Goedert over 46.5 receiving yards (-115); risk 1 unit at DraftKings Sportsbook
Dallas Goedert was 5/5 catching for 58 yards and a score last week for the Eagles. That was right on his season average of 58.5 YPG, with 760 receiving yards in 13 games. His last four games have seen him finish with 58, 46, 45 and 67 yards.
The 49ers are a team Goedert could find success against considering they allowed the tenth-most receiving yards (932) to opposing tight ends. Last week, Bills’ TE Dawson Knox led all Buffalo receivers with 65 yards.
4) Joe Mixon over 24.5 receiving yards (-120); risk 1 unit at DraftKings Sportsbook
Joe Mixon certainly isn’t one of the top passing options for QB Joe Burrow in the Bengals’ offense, but he did finish with the fourth-most receiving yards on the team in the regular season. Mixon had 441 yards in 14 games, good for an average of 31.5.
His receiving yardage prop in the AFC Title Game is set at 24.5, a total he’s surpassed in 3/5 and 7/10 recent games. He’ll have every chance to do so on Sunday against a Chiefs’ defense that allowed the most receptions (112) and fourth-most yards (806) to running backs this season.
|Team||Odds to Score 1st TD||Odds to Score Any TD|
|Christian McCaffrey (SF)||+700||-125|
|Deebo Samuel (SF)||+1100||+160|
|George Kittle (SF)||+1200||+160|
|Brandon Aiyuk (SF)||+1600||+230|
|Elijah Mitchell (SF)||+1800||+290|
|Brock Purdy (SF)||+3000||+475|
|Defense/Special Teams (SF)||+3000||+425|
|Jalen Hurts (PHI)||+750||+110|
|A.J. Brown (PHI)||+800||+120|
|Miles Sanders (PHI)||+850||+125|
|DeVonta Smith (PHI)||+1100||+170|
|Kenneth Gainwell (PHI)||+2500||+450|
|Defense/Special Teams (PHI)||+2800||+425|
|Ja’Marr Chase (CIN)||+750||-105|
|Joe Mixon (CIN)||+750||-105|
|Tee Higgins (CIN)||+1300||+185|
|Hayden Hurst (CIN)||+1600||+270|
|Joe Burrow (CIN)||+2000||+310|
|Samaje Perine (CIN)||+2000||+310|
|Tyler Boyd (CIN)||+2000||+320|
|Travis Kelce (KC)||+700||-115|
|Jerick McKinnon (KC)||+1000||+140|
|Isiah Pacheco (KC)||+1000||+145|
|Kadarius Toney (KC)||+1600||+260|
|JuJu Smith-Schuster (KC)||+1900||+295|
|Marquez Valdes-Scantling (KC)||+2000||+310|
|Defense/Special Teams (KC)||+2800||+425|
At -125 odds, Christian McCaffrey is one of the biggest favorites to score an anytime touchdown this weekend.
Here’s who I like to find the endzone and why for my Conference Championship player props.
- Jalen Hurts anytime touchdown (+110); risk 1 unit at DraftKings Sportsbook: Outside of a Week 18 win over the Giants when Hurts was clearly taking less chances coming off an injury, he’s rushed in a score in four of his past five games and in and six of eight. One of those games he ran in three scores. Overall, on the season, Hurts has 13 rushing touchdowns.
- Ja’Marr Chase anytime touchdown (-105); risk 1 unit at DraftKings Sportsbook: Ja’Marr Chase found the endzone last week early on for the first score of the game. He’s pulled down a receiving touchdown in each playoff game so far and now has 11 on the year. Chase now has a TD in five of his past six games and also in seven of nine. He’s also seen double-digit targets in 8/10 recent games from Burrow so it’s likely he’ll see plenty of opportunities to score once again.
- Travis Kelce anytime touchdown (-115); risk 1 unit at DraftKings Sportsbook: Kelce broke a streak of six games without a receiving touchdown last week when he scored twice on 14 catches. As mentioned earlier, it seems likely Mahomes relies on Kelce once again this week, making him a good TD prop pick at -115 odds.
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