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Cowboys vs Buccaneers Public Betting Trends for Wild Card Playoffs Monday Night Football

Chris Amberley

by Chris Amberley in NFL Football

Jan 16, 2023 · 10:13 AM PST

Tom Brady walking off after a win over the Cowboys
Sep 11, 2022; Arlington, Texas, USA; Tampa Bay Buccaneers quarterback Tom Brady (12) leaves the field after the game against the Dallas Cowboys at AT&T Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Kevin Jairaj-USA TODAY Sports

  • Dallas is garnering 61% of the ATS bets in the Cowboys vs Buccaneers public betting splits ahead of their NFC Wild Card Game on MNF
  • Over 45.5 is getting 61% of the bets and 64% of all money wagered on the total
  • Don’t miss our comprehensive breakdown of the Cowboys vs Buccaneers public betting trends and key trends below

Through the first five games of Super Wild Card Weekend, underdogs are 4-1 against the spread, while the over is a perfect 5-0. So, does that mean we should be targeting the Bucs and the over in their NFC Wild Card showdown with the Cowboys on Monday Night Football? As we’ll explore, the Cowboys vs Buccaneers public betting trends suggest otherwise.

Bettors meanwhile are split on the notion. The over is in fact the more popular play per the NFL public betting trends, but more and more money is starting come in on Dallas as 2.5-point favorites.

Cowboys vs Buccaneers ATS Betting Splits

The Cowboys actually opened as 3-point favorites, but that number was bet down early in the week. For the majority of the weekend, the betting action had been split almost exactly down the middle, but Dallas bettors have started showing up in waves on Monday.

The Cowboys are currently drawing 61% of the spread handle and 51% of the ATS bets. Dallas is 0-1 against the spread in the postseason in the Mike McCarthy era, while Dak Prescott has never covered in a playoff game.


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Prescott and Co. ended the season by failing to cover in three of their final five games and looked abysmal in a Week 18 meaningless game despite playing all their starters. Dak threw his 11th interception in his past seven starts, and over 0.5 picks for Prescott is likely going to be one of the most heavily bet Cowboys vs Buccaneers player props.

Tampa Bay meanwhile, boasted the worst cover rate in the league this season. The Bucs were 4-12-1 ATS, although they did cover handily in their Week 1 meeting with Dallas. Per the Cowboys vs Buccaneers picks, betting against Tom Brady as a playoff underdog has not been a profitable strategy.

Brady has covered in four straight instances as a postseason ‘dog, while the GOAT is 7-3 lifetime against the spread in an underdog role in the playoffs. Tonight will mark the first time he’s a ‘dog in his own stadium, but he’s been a cash cow for backers as a home underdog during the regular season.

Throughout his career, Brady led teams are 11-2 against the spread when catching points at home, winning nine of those contests outright.

Dallas vs Tampa Bay Total Betting Splits

Total-wise, the line is currently sitting at 45.5, which is up a point from where it opened. At that number 61% of the over/under bets are backing the over, as is 64% of all money wagered on the total.

Tampa Bay saw 11 of its 17 games fall under the total, which was the fifth-highest mark in the league. The Bucs Week 1 meeting with Dallas came in well below the number, and their underwhelming offense and strong defense has been a recipe for low-scoring contests.

Tampa Bay averaged just 18.4 points per game, the lowest of any of the 14 playoff teams. Defensively, they yielded only 21 points and ranked 13th in defensive DVOA.

If you want to make the case for the over it’s this. Starting center Ryan Jensen will make his season debut per the Cowboys vs Buccaneers injury report, after missing all 17 regular season games. Tampa Bay’s offensive line has been unable to protect Brady all campaign, but it will be at near full strength tonight.

That should afford Brady more time to throw, and the Dallas defense enters play struggling. After grading out near the top of the DVOA rankings all season, the Cowboys are 19th in expected points added per play on defense over the past three weeks.

Dallas has been especially vulnerable on defense outside recently, averaging 27 points allowed in their past four games on grass.

Offensively, the Cowboys were among the league leaders in scoring this season, but last week’s abysmal performance in Washington should give bettors cause for concern.

Cowboys vs Buccaneers Moneyline Splits

As far as the moneyline market goes, the ticket count surprisingly favors the underdog. The thought process among most bettors is likely two-fold. For one, betting against TB-12 in the playoffs can be a miserable experience. Secondly, most bettors likely assume Tampa Bay is just as likely to win as they are to lose by less than a field goal.

The Buccaneers are currently drawing 66% of the moneyline bets and 63% of the handle as +125 ‘dogs. We mentioned at the top that Brady has covered in each of the past four instances as a playoff underdog, but what we didn’t reveal is that he’s won outright in all four games as well.

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