Will Derrick Henry Post Another 100-Yard Rushing Game in 2018?

• Derrick Henry racked up 238 rushing yards against the Jaguars last week
• It was the first time this season he topped the century mark on the ground and sportsbooks don’t see him breaking 100 yards again this year
• Is there value in betting Henry to ball out again?

In the NFL’s annual Thursday Night travesty between the Tennessee Titans and the Jacksonville Jaguars, Derrick Henry actually gave casual fans a reason to watch.

In rushing for 238 yards, including a record-tying 99 yard scamper, Henry gave us more highlights than the previous 10 games between these rivals combined.

DERRICK HENRY ? 99-YD HOUSE CALL

?: NFL Network #JAXvsTENpic.twitter.com/glXJZ8c7DR

— SportsCenter (@SportsCenter) December 7, 2018

Henry also led the Titans to their best offensive output of the season. With Tennessee still in the thick of the playoff race, you’d think they’d lean on their thumping back a little more down the stretch. Well, oddsmakers don’t see it that way.

Odds Henry Will Post Another 100-yard Rushing Game

Before last game, Henry’s rushing high on the season was 58 yards. He also averaged 10.7 carries per game and 3.7 yards per carry prior to Thursday night.

In a 16-game season, understandable that one great game doesn’t move the betting needle much. Otherwise, we’d still be taking the UNDER on Jonas Gray props.

Projected Rushing Yards for Henry in Week 15

However, Henry isn’t a one-hit wonder.

He’s a capable NFL running back that has rarely gotten to be the lone wolf, always splitting carries with a backfield mate. It’s possible he has another big game this year if he gets enough snaps. But is it worth betting?

Tennessee Titans Remaining Opponents

There’s no ’85 Bears on their schedule, that’s for sure.

The Titans should be able to have success running the ball against all of these teams, but whether the game script dictates they can will be another thing. After all, Tennessee fell behind the friggin Jets 16-0!

There’s no team they can’t make look good.

Josh Allen is an athletic quarterback. #Titans know this going into the game. They have to contain better. Kamalei Correa overpursues the run inside and allows Allen to break contain. Then Kendrick Lewis gets juked out of his shoes. Bills take an early 7-0 lead #TENvsBUF pic.twitter.com/MIc041wrXJ

— Titans Film Room (@titansfilmroom) October 7, 2018

Even if the Titans aren’t falling in a hole early, will Henry be able to run wild?

Last week, when he was averaging a grotesque 14 yards per touch, he played 40% of offensive snaps to Dion Lewis’ 63%. Though both backs have an identical 145 carries on the year, Lewis plays 65% of the time to Henry’s 35%.

Considering this coaching staff seems to forget Henry even exists for stretches, like when they handed the ball to their tight end on a crucial fourth and one, there’s no reason to think an increased workload is coming.

.@Titans OC Matt LaFleur on 4th and 1 play vs #Texans (Luke Stocker run): Unfortunately it’s a bad play call. pic.twitter.com/arzoADom9h

— Jim Wyatt (@jwyattsports) November 29, 2018

Best Bet

Henry has only topped 100 yards four times in his entire career, and in each game, his average gain per carry was 6.7 yards or higher.

If you bet on Henry to go over a hundred again in 2018, you’re banking on a level of efficiency that should pay out much higher than +175.

Even taking him to top 57 yards next week is a bad bet. Those three previous games he topped the century mark? The following outings he went for 13, 20, and 28 yards on the ground.

Henry, it was fun for a night. But this isn’t going to turn into a thing.