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NFL Division Odds & Picks Ahead of NFL Season Opener

Zach Reger

by Zach Reger in NFL Football

Updated Sep 5, 2023 · 12:16 PM UTC

Dec 24, 2022; Kansas City, Missouri, USA; Kansas City Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes (15) interacts with the crowd prior to a game against the Seattle Seahawks at GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jay Biggerstaff-USA TODAY Sports
  • NFL division odds are available for each NFL team to win their division
  • The Kansas City Chiefs are -180 to win the AFC West for the eighth consecutive season
  • Read below for all NFL division odds, analysis, and picks for the 2023/24 season

The NFL season officially kicks off this week, so time is running out to bet on teams to win their division. Betting on teams to win their division is a great way to follow a team all season. In the offseason, it is easy to look heavily at the favorites, however, less than half of the division winners have gone on to repeat as division champions every year since 2019. There will always be a surprise division winner or two who upset the NFL division odds.

The NFL division odds have been on the move all offseason, so where is there still value? Let’s look at all the division odds and predict who will be representing their division in the NFL Playoffs this season.

Odds to Win AFC East 2023

  • Bills +120
  • Jets +250
  • Dolphins +290
  • Patriots +800

All odds from FanDuel Sportsbook on September 5. Be sure to grab your FanDuel promo code to get the best bonus to use for NFL Week 1 here.


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The AFC East figures to be one of the most exciting divisions to watch this season. The Bills have won three straight division titles, but there has not been this much competition in the last few years. Aaron Rodgers comes to this division, and the Dolphins are entering Year 2 with Mike McDaniel, Tyreek Hill, and co. The Patriots do not seem like much of a threat to take the AFC East with +800 odds.

Money has come in on the Dolphins lowering their odds from +430 to +290. That movement has made this a tight race. Despite all the newcomers, this division still runs through Buffalo. The Bills’ championship window is slowly closing, so they need to take the next step this season. Buffalo has won at least 11 games in the past three seasons, and that should continue in 2023. They have the weapons on offense and added Dalton Kincaid from Utah in the NFL Draft. They have a strong offensive line and a talented defense. Buffalo’s consistency and sense of urgency will help them win their fourth straight AFC East division title.

2023 AFC East Pick: Bills (+120) 

Odds to Win AFC North 2023

  • Bengals +150
  • Ravens +210
  • Browns +400
  • Steelers +470

The AFC North is always a tight, competitive division, and the Cincinnati Bengals have come out on top the past two seasons. The AFC North odds suggest that it will be close yet again as the Steelers have the fourth-best odds and are just +470 to win the division.

Despite that, this division still belongs to Joe Burrow and Cincinnati. The Bengals are tied with the highest NFL win totals listing of 11.5, and for good reason. They return all their weapons on offense, and their defensive line can get to opposing quarterbacks. The Ravens resigned Lamar Jackson and want to make some noise and win the division for the first time since 2019, but the Bengals have enough firepower to hold them off.

2023 AFC North Pick: Bengals (+150) 

Odds to Win AFC South 2023

  • Jaguars -155
  • Titans +310
  • Colts +550
  • Texans +1000

The Jaguars won the AFC South last season for the first time since 2017 and are heavy favorites to repeat in the NFL division odds. They edged out a Josh Dobbs-led Titans team in Week 18 to win the division and make the playoffs. The reason why the Jaguars are getting such great odds is because of what they were able to do in the playoffs. They overcame a 27-point deficit against the Chargers and played a close game with Kansas City in Arrowhead.

The Titans at +310 offer tremendous value to win the AFC South in 2023. However, there is a lot of stink with the Titans because of their seven-game losing streak to end the season and because everyone else in the AFC South has a young, flashy quarterback while Tennessee is sticking with Ryan Tannehill. Tennessee was 7-3 before that losing streak, however. Injuries played a large factor in that as the Titans had to start a combination of Malik Willis and Josh Dobbs behind one of the worst offensive lines in the league. Despite that, they still played games close and were minutes away from sneaking into the playoffs last season.

Tennessee added DeAndre Hopkins, so their offense could be much better than people are thinking. With Hopkins, Treylon Burks, and Chig Okonkwo, Derrick Henry should see fewer eight-man boxes. Combine that with the experience of Ryan Tannehill and a strong defense led by Jeffrey Simmons and Harold Landry, and the Titans will win the AFC South.

2023 AFC South Pick: Titans (+310) 

Odds to Win AFC West 2023

  • Chiefs -180
  • Chargers +300
  • Broncos +600
  • Raiders +1700

Death, taxes, and the Kansas City Chiefs winning the AFC West. Kansas City has won their division seven straight seasons, and by no surprise, they are -180 to win it again this year. The AFC West has a lot of talent with the Chargers and even the Broncos since they now have Sean Payton as their head coach, but no matter how talented this division is, the Chiefs always find a way to come out on top. I am not betting against the reigning Super Bowl champion to win their division.

2023 AFC West Pick: Chiefs (-180)

Odds to Win NFC East 2023

  • Eagles -115
  • Cowboys +175
  • Giants +700
  • Commanders +1300

On paper, the Eagles should win the NFC East yet again. They are one of the best teams in the NFL, but there is one trend keeping me from picking Philadelphia to win the division. There has not been a repeat champion in the NFC East since 2004.

There is tremendous value in looking elsewhere in 2023 in the NFL division odds. The Cowboys’ NFC East odds have not moved much since the end of last season, but the Eagles have moved from +115 to -115, so there is less value on the Eagles there. Also, there were three NFC East teams in the playoffs last season after all. Based on the NFL Playoff odds, multiple teams from the NFC East should make the playoffs yet again. The Giants are not getting talked about enough this offseason. They made some big moves adding Darren Waller and Isaiah Simmons. Brian Daboll surprised in his first season as head coach, and he has the roster to take the next step in 2023 and win the division.

2023 NFC East Pick: Giants (+700)

Odds to Win NFC North 2023

  • Lions +145
  • Vikings +260
  • Packers +350
  • Bears +430

The NFC North figures to be another close division based on the NFC North odds. The Lions are the favorite to win the NFC North despite not winning the division since 1993. The Bears have the worst odds, yet are still just +430. Detroit has received a lot of hype this offseason. Despite missing the playoffs last year, the Lions won their last game of the season in Green Bay and have the offense to score on any team. They added Jahmyr Gibbs to their repertoire in the draft, so now it just comes down to whether their defense can improve.

That has yet to be seen, so the division winner from last season offers bettors great value at +260. The Vikings’ record was better than their team last season, but they are still a good football team. The Vikings’ offense should be better this year with the addition of Jordan Addison, and their defense brought in Brian Flores. I expect their defense to make a big jump, and Minnesota has a lot of experience playing in close games. The Vikings will run it back in 2023.

2023 NFC North Pick: Vikings (+260)

Odds to Win NFC South 2023

  • Saints +130
  • Falcons +210
  • Panthers +360
  • Buccaneers +750

For the past 20 years, at least one NFL team that finished last in their division has gone on to win the division the next year. The NFC South presents the best opportunity for that to happen again. There was a three-way tie for last place between the Saints, Falcons, and Panthers, and the division champion from last season has the worst odds to win.

The Saints, Falcons, and Panthers all represent tremendous value. The Saints have a new signal caller in Derek Carr, and the Falcons have received a lot of love this offseason following their draft pick of Bijan Robinson. The Panthers had the second-best odds to win the NFC South at +255 at the beginning of the offseason, but that flipped after the draft. The Falcons’ NFL division odds moved from +390 to now +210 and have passed Carolina.

The Panthers now have a lot of value as a flyer to win their division at +360 odds. Bryce Young has one of the best head coaches a young quarterback could have in Frank Reich, and their defense should be much improved. They also added Miles Sanders, Adam Thielen, and DJ Chark to their offense. The NFC South will once again be one of the worst divisions in football, and it is anyone’s to take. Therefore, I like the value of the Panthers in my NFL division picks.

2023 NFC South Pick: Panthers (+360)

Odds to Win NFC West 2023

  • 49ers -165
  • Seahawks +200
  • Rams +1000
  • Cardinals +2700

The 49ers have made the NFC Championship game the last two seasons, and are -165 favorites to repeat as NFC West champions. The Seahawks pose as the biggest threat to the 49ers, but then there is a large drop off in odds with the Rams being +1000 and the Cardinals being +2700. Back in March, the Rams were +250 to win the division, but have since moved to +1000.

This two-horse race comes down to quarterback play. If Brock Purdy takes a step back, Geno Smith and the Seahawks will win the division. If Brock Purdy does what he did last year, the 49ers will repeat. I tend to believe in the latter. The 49ers have one of, if not, the most talented rosters in the NFL outside of the quarterback position, so I trust Kyle Shanahan to lead to 49ers to their second consecutive division title.

2023 NFC West Pick: 49ers (-165)

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