Dolphins vs Patriots Props – Best Player Props to Bet for Week 17
By Chris Amberley in NFL Football
Updated: March 7, 2023 at 3:21 pm ESTPublished:
- Dolphins vs Patriots player props are live for their Week 17 AFC East tilt
- Will Mac Jones fail to eclipse 224.5 passing yards? Can New England hold Jaylen Waddle below 55.5 receiving yards?
- Check out the available odds for the Dolphins vs Patriots player props below
The stakes are high for Sunday’s Dolphins vs Patriots showdown. Miami is currently clinging to the final Wild Card berth in the AFC, with New England, the Jets and Steelers all right on their heels.
The Dolphins offense got dealt a blow this week with the news of another Tua Tagovailoa concussion, meaning Teddy Bridgewater will get the start.
We’ll dive into Bridgewater and one of his top targets later for our Dolphins vs Patriots player prop Week 17 picks, but our card starts with a fade of New England QB Mac Jones.
Dolphins vs Patriots Player Props
| Quarterbacks | Completions | Passing Yards | Passing TD |
|---|---|---|---|
| Teddy Bridgewater (MIA) | OFF | 223.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115) | 1.5 (Ov +135 | Un -185) |
| Mac Jones (NE) | OFF | 224.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115) | 1.5 (Ov +120 | Un -160) |
| Running Backs | Attempts | Rush Yards | Rush + Rec Yards |
| Raheem Mostert (MIA) | OFF | 44.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115) | 56.5 (Ov -120 | Un -110) |
| Wide Receivers + Tight Ends | Receptions | Receiving Yards | Longest Reception |
| Tyreek Hill (MIA) | OFF | 70.5 (Ov -130 | Un +100) | 25.5 (Ov -110 | Un -120) |
| Jaylen Waddle (MIA) | OFF | 55.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115) | 22.5 (Ov -110 | Un -120) |
| Jakobi Myers (NE) | OFF | 51.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115) | 20.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115) |
Odds as of December 31st at DraftKings Sportsbook. Get the DraftKings promo to bet on your MIA vs NE player props.
Jones’ passing yards over/under is listed at 224.5 which is 1 yard higher than Bridgewater’s. New England prefers to attack teams on the ground whenever possible, and there’s reasons to believe the Miami defense can keep Jones in check.
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MIA vs NE Prop #1: Mac Jones Under 224.5 Passing Yards
The main reason to be bearish on Jones is his play under pressure. Jones’ Pro Football Focus passing grade drops from 90.4 when kept clean, to 26.1 under duress. His average yards per attempt drops 3 yards while his completion percentage dips to a pitiful 43%.
I don't believe Matt Patricia, Joe Judge or even Mac Jones deserves the blame for the Patriots' pathetic offense.
Bill Belichick does.
Pam Beasley explains why: pic.twitter.com/iRK8AO7cKc
— Dan Fetes (@danfetes) December 20, 2022
The Dolphins are one of the blitz happiest teams in the league, bringing at least five men at the seventh-highest rate. They generate pressure on 21% of opposing QB drop backs, and limited Jones to 213 passing yards in their first meeting.
Jones has failed to reach 215 passing yards six times already this season, and is a strong bet to finish below 224.5 yards on Sunday in our Dolphins vs Patriots picks.
Pick: Mac Jones Under 224.5 Passing Yards (-115), 1 unit
MIA vs NE Prop #2: Jaylen Waddle Under 55.5 Receiving Yards
The key to winning this prop bet will be simple. Don’t cough up a 65+ yard play to Jaylen Waddle. In the last two weeks Waddle has ripped off 84 and 76-yard touchdown catches.
Jaylen Waddle’s speed and acceleration is just hilarious. pic.twitter.com/z0nU0mmHLZ
— Ari Meirov (@MySportsUpdate) December 25, 2022
Remove those from the equation, and his numbers would look pedestrian. Case and point the previous two games when he totalled just 40 receiving yards.
Bridgewater and Waddle do have some chemistry together, but it’s worth noting that two of Waddle’s four worst receiving games came when Tagovailoa didn’t play.
As for the matchup, the New England defense is not one you typically want to target wide receivers against. The Pats rank third in pass defense DVOA, and 12th in coverage grade.
Pick: Jaylen Waddle Under 55.5 Receiving Yards (-115), 1 unit
Dolphins vs Patriots TD Props
| Player | Odds to Score 1st TD | Odds to Score Anytime TD |
|---|---|---|
| Rhamondre Stevenson (NE) | +380 | -170 |
| Tyreek Hill (MIA) | +700 | +130 |
| Raheem Mostert (MIA) | +850 | +155 |
| DeVante Parker (NE) | +1000 | +200 |
| Damian Harris (NE) | +1000 | +200 |
| Jakobi Meyers (NE) | +1000 | +200 |
| Jaylen Waddle (MIA) | +1000 | +200 |
| Jeff Wilson Jr. (MIA) | +1100 | +210 |
| Nelson Agholor (NE) | +1400 | +290 |
| Tyquan Thornton (NE) | +1400 | +300 |
| Kendrick Bourne (NE) | +1400 | +300 |
| Hunter Henry (NE) | +1400 | +310 |
| New England Defense | +2000 | +500 |
| Mike Gesicki (MIA) | +2800 | +650 |
| Mac Jones (NE) | +3000 | +700 |
| Miami Defense | +3000 | +750 |
| Teddy Bridgewater (MIA) | +3200 | +850 |
As far as the anytime TD market goes, Rhamondre Stevenson leads the way with a -170 price tag. That makes sense given New England is a small favorite, however, that price is too steep to bet.
MIA vs NE Prop #3: Tyreek Hill Anytime TD
The same cannot be said for Tyreek Hill’s tag, who is a screaming value at +130 to score. Yes, as we detailed, the Pats are a bad matchup for wide receivers. But if there is a wideout in the NFL that is matchup proof, it’s Hill. He’s scored seven times already this year including in three of his last four contests.
Tyreek Hill Career Stats vs Patriots
| Games | REC | YDS | TD |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 32 | 495 | 5 |
Hill found the end zone against both the Bills and 49ers, the fourth and top-rated defense per DVOA, and has historically fared very well against New England. He’s scored five times versus Bill Belichick and the Pats in five career games, averaging 99 yards per contest.
Pick: Tyreek Hill Anytime TD (+130), 1 unit
Last Week’s Player Props Record: 5-2, +2.96 units
Sports Writer
As SBD's resident Swiss Army Knife, Chris covers virtually every sport including NFL, PGA, NBA, MLB, NCAAB, NCAAF and the Olympics. A true grinder, he'd rather pick off small edges in the player props market than swing for the fences with a 5-leg parlay.
