Philadelphia Eagles are +210 to Make the NFL Playoffs

• The Philadelphia Eagles are +210 to make the playoffs, needing a win and some help in Week 17.
• If the Minnesota Vikings choke at home, the door opens for the Eagles to get in the dance.
• Is there any value in taking Philadelphia to grab the final Wild Card?

Nick Foles (or St. Nick as he has more festively been referred to lately) has the Philadelphia Eagles heading into the final week of the regular season with a puncher’s chance.

Having rattled off two wins over playoff teams, the Eagles are playing their best ball of the season right now. Can this magical run for Foles continue into another January?

Well unfortunately for Philadelphia, the call isn’t up to them. It’s up to the Chicago Bears to keep their season alive.

Odds to Make the Playoffs in the NFC

All odds taken 12/26.

The Vikings will have to lose to Chicago at home in a game that they are currently -210 favorites in.

Even a Minnesota tie doesn’t help the Eagles advance, although no team has ever tied a Week 17 game since the merger. (When the entire season is on the line, coaches tend to be more aggressive.)

Your Week 17 NFC playoff clinching scenarios. pic.twitter.com/hZUQycStTN

— Rich Eisen (@richeisen) December 25, 2018

So if Philly’s playoff path is as simple as a Bears win and an Eagles win, why is this prop offering worse value than those two results parlayed together?

Right now, oddsmakers have Chicago as +175 dogs in Minneapolis and Philly is -300 favorites in Washington; a parlay payout of +266.

There is no value in playing this prop on either side of the coin, as a Vikings win is -210 and there is no way the game will end in a tie.

With the Bears already playoff bound, Matt Nagy won’t want his team playing extra minutes in a fruitless tie. He’ll pull a Frank Reich if it means the game ends sooner.

Here’s what Colts HC Frank Reich said about going for it on 4th down late in OT. “We’re not playing to tie. We’re going for it 10 times out of 10.” #Texans @KPRC2 pic.twitter.com/OMYDszmKKX

— Adam Wexler (@AdamJWexler) October 1, 2018

What’s the play?

While we’ve already established this prop offers no actual value, who should you bet to grab the last spot in the NFC playoffs?

Well we’ve already seen Kirk Cousins in a win-and-in situation once before in Washington. In 2016, playing a Giants team with no actual motivation besides ending a rival’s season,  New York picked off Cousins twice, holding him to a 74.6 passer rating in a 19-10 win.

Ranking number-one in defensive DVOA, the Bears can certainly make choking Cousins reappear again.

While Kevin Stefanski’s offense has run the ball far more effectively these last two weeks; no one really has success on the ground vs. Chicago. (Minnesota only had 22 yards total in their Week 11 meeting.) So betting Cousins to poop his pants in this spot seems like a decent wager.

#Vikings fans watching Kirk Cousins fail to deliver in the clutch pic.twitter.com/gKMyegutoP

— The Ringer (@ringer) December 11, 2018

Then, all you need is the Eagles to pull out a road win over the Walking Deadskins and Foles and company are well on their way to Lombardi Trophy number two.

I will be backing Philly to make the playoffs, but I’ll do it via moneyline parlay to maximize value.