Early NFL Player Props to Target for Week 5: CeeDee Lamb, Derrick Henry & More

• Early NFL player props for Week 5 start with Tampa Bay at Dallas on Thursday night
• My board covers a receiving yards prop, a rushing yards prop and a receptions prop
• Keep reading for my three early NFL player props to target in Week 5, plus the game logs behind them

CeeDee Lamb caught 17 passes on Sunday. Four weeks in, we finally have enough usage to separate a real role from a hot box score.

My early props lean on how often a guy touches the ball and how the matchup has handled that part of the field. Efficiency bounces around more than opportunity does.

Week 5 opens with the Buccaneers at the Cowboys on Thursday, October 8, and my board also runs through Baltimore at Atlanta on Sunday night. Here are the NFL player props I’m targeting.

NFL Week 5 Player Props to Target

Lamb and Ferguson lines are BetMGM prices as of October 6. Henry’s number is an estimated target rather than a verified sportsbook quote, so compare NFL betting apps before you bet it.

New customers can also grab the BetMGM promo code before Thursday night kicks off Week 5.

NFL Player Prop Pick: CeeDee Lamb Receiving Yards

• Early Bet: CeeDee Lamb over 81.5 receiving yards (-115 at BetMGM)

My CeeDee Lamb receiving yards pick starts with Sunday. He posted a career-high 17 catches for 189 yards and a touchdown in Dallas’ 34-30 win over Houston, and the score was the game winner.

That wasn’t a one-week thing. Lamb has 37 catches for 498 yards and four touchdowns through four games, which works out to 124.5 receiving yards per game.

CeeDee Lamb 2026 Game Log

Three straight games above 110 yards puts 81.5 well below where Lamb has been living. He showed up on Monday’s walkthrough estimate with a thigh issue, but he was listed as a full participant.

Tampa Bay is also down a starting safety. Antoine Winfield Jr. has a rib fracture and is expected to miss two to four weeks, with Ifeatu Melifonwu expected to step in.

When I shop receiving yards, I want the guy his offense runs through. One quiet Week 1 aside, that’s been Lamb every time out, and I’ll take the over on Thursday.

NFL Player Prop Pick: Derrick Henry Rushing Yards

• Early Bet: Derrick Henry under 94.5 rushing yards (estimated target)

My Derrick Henry rushing yards target comes down to what he’s done since Week 1. He opened with 24 carries for 144 yards and three touchdowns at Indianapolis, then hasn’t come close to that again.

Over the last three games, Henry has 230 yards on 65 carries, a 3.54 average. He sits at 89 carries for 374 yards and seven touchdowns on the season, so the scores are still coming even as the yardage dries up.

Atlanta has allowed 193 rushing yards on 71 attempts through four games, 2.7 per carry. That’s a team figure covering every opponent rusher rather than a running back split, but it’s not a defense that has been giving ground.

Lamar Jackson’s ankle is the wild card. Jesse Minter said Monday he didn’t know whether Jackson would play, and Tyler Huntley is the backup if he sits. That could mean more Henry carries, though it also lets Atlanta key on the run.

Henry went for 1,595 yards at 5.2 per carry in 2025, so a blow-up game is never off the table. Still, he’s finished under 94.5 in three of four games this year, and that’s the side I want when comparing rushing yards odds for Sunday night.

NFL Player Prop Pick: Jake Ferguson Receptions

• Early Bet: Jake Ferguson under 3.5 receptions (-135 at BetMGM)

My Jake Ferguson receptions pick is about how little he’s catching. He has 12 catches for 83 yards and three touchdowns in four games, and those scores make his season look busier than the catch totals do.

Jake Ferguson 2026 Game Log

He’s landed under 3.5 catches in three of four games, and the one exception was exactly four. That’s the honest risk here, because four catches is all it takes to lose this one.

The other counterpoint is last season. Ferguson caught 82 passes for 600 yards and eight touchdowns in 17 games, so he’s handled a much bigger workload before.

Right now the ball is going elsewhere. Lamb piled up 17 catches in Week 4 while Ferguson finished with three for 11 yards, and I’m betting on that split holding for one more Thursday night.