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Expert NFL Picks Against the Spread for Week 7

Ryan Metivier

by Ryan Metivier in NFL Football

Updated Oct 23, 2022 · 8:42 AM PDT

Matt Ryan
Oct 16, 2022; Indianapolis, Indiana, USA; Indianapolis Colts quarterback Matt Ryan (2) celebrates the win over Jacksonville Jaguars at Lucas Oil Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Trevor Ruszkowski-USA TODAY Sports
  • Our NFL experts predict their top picks against the spread for NFL Week 7
  • Both the Colts and the Seahawks are popular picks with our NFL experts this week
  • Read on for our expert NFL picks against the spread for Week 7 below

Week 7 rolls along and serves up another 13 games to choose from for our weekly expert NFL picks against the spread. Read on for our top ATS picks for the weekend here.

It was a big week for our expert NFL picks last week as we went a combined 7-2, bringing the season record to 33-25-3. We’ll look to stay hot in Week 7 with our top ATS picks.

Each week we’ll make our top picks against the spread and keep track of our records throughout the season. Read on for this week’s top NFL ATS picks.

Expert NFL Picks Against the Spread Week 7

Matt McEwan Ryan Metivier Zach Reger Bob Duff
Falcons +6.5 Seahawks +5.5 Commanders +4.5 Patriots -7.5
Packers -4.5 Raiders -7 Texans +7 Giants +3
Seahawks +5.5 Colts +2.5 Titans 1H -1.5 Chiefs -2
4-5 Season Record 8-9-1 Season Record 12-5-1 Season Record 11-4-1 Season Record

Odds as of October 21. Check out this Barstool Sportsbook promo code to bet on the NFL this weekend

In Week 7, we see a variety of picks against the spread in the table above with ten different teams receiving picks from the NFL experts.

Matt McEwan

  • Falcons +6.5 at DraftKings Sportsbook

The Falcons remain a perfect 6-0 against the spread this season and have done so as a dog each week. This hasn’t simply been the Falcons playing a light schedule either—49ers, Buccaneers, Browns, and Seahawks the last four weeks. I don’t see their opponent this week—the Bengals—as anything special, though.

I know they are the defending AFC champs, but they have not looked like the same team who got really hot to end last season. Cincinnati can’t protect Joe Burrow, giving up 22 sacks this season, only one behind the Bears and Commanders for the league-worst mark. They also can’t run the ball, only averaging 3.5 yards per carry (29th).

I like Atlanta to hang around this one thanks to their strong rushing attack that ranks ninth in YPC.

  • Packers -4.5 at FanDuel Sportsbook

Yes, the Jets just went into Lambeau and beat the Packers last week. Yes, the Packers lost to the Giants the week prior as well. But this is the Washington Commanders.

Crazy things tend to happen in London and I suspect the Packers were still suffering from a little London hangover last week. I think most would also agree that both the Giants and Jets are better than expected, though. I don’t think many are saying that about Washington.

Taylor Heinicke was fun in that playoff game against the Bucs two years ago. We saw him start 15 games last year and I do not believe he is ready to beat a pissed off Aaron Rodgers.

  • Seahawks +5.5 at BetMGM

Speaking of teams who have surprised this season, the Seahawks are 3-3 and not appearing to be missing Russell Wilson much. Their weakness this year has been stopping the run. Seattle is giving up 5.1 yards per carry (28th). When they have held a team to less than 146 rushing yards, they are 3-0.

The Chargers average just 3.7 YPC (26th) and have only rushed for more than 81 yards in a game once this season. LA is also allowing the second-most yards per carry (5.6) in the league. This is troubling since Seattle averages 5.3 YPC, which is third-best in the NFL.

I like Geno’s Seahawks to run all over the Chargers and keep this one close.

Ryan Metivier

The Chargers are 4-2 on the season but their wins have come by five, ten, two and three points. The ten-point win was against Houston who struggle to score, ranking 26th in PPG at 17.2. The Seahawks, last week’s 19-9 win notwithstanding, don’t struggle to score. They put up 32, 48, and 23 points in the three games prior. Overall they rank just ahead of the Chargers in PPG with 24.3 compared to 23.5.

Both of these teams rank mid-pack in passing defense, with Los Angeles 18th and Seattle 21st in yards allowed per game. Seattle may not win this game, but with Geno Smith, DJ Metcalf, Tyler Lockett (questionable), Will Dissly and Kenneth Walker III, they have the weapons to keep this one close.

  • Raiders (-7) at FanDuel Sportsbook

The Texans don’t win often and they also don’t win much on the road. They’re 1-2 on the road this season. They were 2-6 on the road last season. Two of those three road wins came against Jacksonville. This just in, they aren’t playing Jacksonville this week, Houston has already lost to Denver and Chicago on the road, two teams that have putrid offenses.

Las Vegas may be 1-4 but it’s not for a lack of offense. They actually rank sixth in PPG at 25.0. This looks like a spot where they can get right at home to the Texans.

Indy just lost to these same Titans 24-17 at home in Week 4. They’ll need to do a better job of containing Derrick Henry who ran all over them for 114 yards in that matchup.

They’ll also need better showings from some of their own star players. Jonathan Taylor ran for only 42 yards and Michael Pittman Jr finished with just 31 receiving yards. Indy will also hope to not find themselves in an early 14-0 hole in the first quarter again. They’ll also need to not commit three turnovers.

Surely some of the above won’t repeat and Taylor and Pittman will have improved days. The Colts did hold the possession advantage with 33:57 minutes and led in first downs 21-19.

Matt Ryan ranks second in passing yards this season and the Titans are allowing the most yards per game in the league through the air. With fewer turnovers and some improved play from key players, I’m calling for the Colts to pull the upset or at least cover the 2.5-points.

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Zach Reger

  • Commanders (+4.5) at FanDuel Sportsbook

It sounds gross, but sometimes those are the best bets. Home dogs have been barking, so the Commanders stuck out when looking at the Week 7 slate. The Packers’ offense has looked atrocious, and Washington has the defensive line to cause havoc and make things difficult for Aaron Rodgers and company to move the ball. This line opened at Packers -5.5, and it is now down to 4.5.

Rookie running back Brian Robinson got the start last Thursday and looked sharp. They also have Antonio Gibson on the roster, who is a talented back. Heading into this season, the Packers’ defense was supposed to be one of the best units in the NFL, but they are currently ranked 27th in the league in rushing yards per game. Taylor Heinicke is looking like the starter, and he cannot be worse than Carson Wentz has been. Heinicke has covered in 50% of the games he has started. With the Commanders rushing attack and defensive front, they should be able to keep this game close against a struggling Green Bay team.

  • Texans (+7) at FanDuel Sportsbook

Going from the Commanders to the Texans is not great, but Lovie Smith has actually been a profitable head coach coming off of a bye. He is 8-5 in his career against the spread. Both of these teams have played predominantly one-score games this season. All of the Raiders games this season except one have been within a score and all of the Texans games have been one-score contests except for a 10-point loss to the Chargers. This number seems too high for the Raiders to lay on Sunday.

The Titans are 4-1 against the spread in the first half, and the Colts are 0-6 against the first half number. The Titans have dominated the Colts of late, and that should continue Sunday. Titans -2.5 is a good play, as well, but the first-half spread is the more proven number. Even coming off the bye, Titans fans can be hopeful that their second-half woes have been fixed, but that is not a given. The Titans have scored just 14 points in the second half this season. Tennessee will rely on Derrick Henry early and often against their rivals. Henry ran for 114 yards and a touchdown, averaging 5.2 yards per carry in the teams’ earlier meeting. The Titans should start off fast again in this one.

 

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