Expert Picks, Props and Odds for Patriots vs Bears on TNF
By Chris Amberley in NFL News
Published:
- The Bears host the Patriots to kick off Week 7 in the NFL on Thursday Night Football
- Chicago significantly outpaces New England in scoring and total offense
- Keep reading for my expert picks, props and odds for Patriots vs Bears on TNF, below
The Chicago Bears (4-2 SU, 4-2 ATS, 2-4 O/U) host the New England Patriots (4-2 SU, 3-2 ATS, 3-3 O/U) at Soldier Field on Thursday Night Football in Week 7. Kickoff takes place at 8:15 PM ET with Amazon Prime Video providing coverage.
Both squads enter this prime-time matchup riding significant momentum, but critical injuries alter the betting landscape.
Patriots quarterback Drake Maye practiced fully despite a lingering shoulder issue, though his top weapon, AJ Brown, saw limited reps due to an ankle injury. The Bears defend the middle of the field with a battered linebacker corps, missing TJ Edwards and Jack Sanborn from practice this week.
Below, I’ll break down this game from every angle. Keep reading for my expert picks, props and odds for Patriots vs Bears on TNF.
Expert Picks for Patriots vs Bears
Moneyline Pick: Bears (-150 / 60¢ at Kalshi)
The Bears possess a notable edge in offensive consistency, producing 25 points and 388.3 total yards per game. This outpaces the Patriots, who average 22.3 points and 374.2 yards. A critical factor in this outcome will be sustaining drives. The Bears boast a strong third-down conversion rate of 45.5% on 88 attempts, allowing them to control the clock and keep the chains moving. Caleb Williams is fresh off one of the best games of his career where he looked like an NFL MVP odds candidate, and I expect the Chicago offense to keep humming.
Conversely, the Patriots convert on just 40.5% of their third downs. Additionally, the visiting squad suffers from poor ball security, committing 13 turnovers for a -6 turnover differential. By protecting the football with only 11 giveaways and relying on superior third-down execution, the Bears are positioned to secure the outright victory. New users can tail this bet with the Kalshi promo code.
Total Points Pick: Under 50.5 (+104 / 49% at Novig)
Oddsmakers have set the total at a lofty 50.5 points. However, the offensive output of these two squads suggests a lower-scoring battle. If both teams hit their exact scoring averages, the combined total lands at 47.3 points. That is more than a field goal shy of the current line.
The Patriots turning the ball over frequently also risks short-circuiting potential scoring drives before reaching the red zone. Taking the Under 50.5 at -108 presents logical value based purely on these established scoring baselines and the defensive resistance both units offer. Use the Novig promo code to lock in this line.
Props for New England vs Chicago
Player-Prop & Touchdown Picks
Moving over to the NFL player props market, where I’m backing Rhamondre Stevenson in a pair of categories. The injury report reveals deep vulnerability in the middle of the defense for the Bears. Key linebackers T.J. Edwards (hamstring) and Jack Sanborn (concussion) both failed to participate in practice this week. Missing these run-stoppers creates favorable field position and coverage matchups for the Patriots backfield.
Stevenson faces a rushing yard total set at a highly approachable 42.5 yards. Exploiting the interior defensive gaps makes backing Stevenson to clear this low hurdle an excellent data-backed angle. Bettors can find strong value by taking Stevenson to score an Anytime Touchdown at 48¢.
Odds for NE vs CHI
Odds as of October 20, 2026 at 4:28 PM ET at BetMGM.
The Bears enter this matchup as 3-point favorites in the NFL odds. Oddsmakers established the total at a relatively high 50.5, leaning slightly toward the over at -111. On the moneyline, the Bears command a -154 price tag to secure a straight-up victory on their home turf. The visiting Patriots sit as +130 underdogs.
When evaluating how the market is reacting to this matchup, a look at the sportsbook handle reveals where the money is flowing. Here is a concise breakdown of the betting money splits for this contest:
- Spread Money: 79.87% on the Patriots (+3) / 20.13% on the Bears (-3)
- Moneyline Money: 50.94% on the Bears / 49.06% on the Patriots
- Total Money: 51.3% on the Under 50.5 / 48.7% on the Over 50.5
My recommendation to back the Bears on the moneyline matches a slight majority of the market, as 50.94% of the financial handle backs the home team. Similarly, the NFL public betting splits support taking the Under 50.5 points.
Sports Writer
As SBD's resident Swiss Army Knife, Chris covers virtually every sport including NFL, PGA, NBA, MLB, NCAAB, NCAAF and the Olympics. A true grinder, he'd rather pick off small edges in the player props market than swing for the fences with a 5-leg parlay.
