- TY Hilton and Tyreek Hill are favorites to lead the Divisional Round in receiving yards
- On Wild Card Weekend, the top three receiving games came from players on a losing team
- What players should you back this week?
If the defensive struggle that was Wild Card weekend wasn’t your cup of tea, this weekend’s Divisional Round should be more your speed.
The Philadelphia Eagles will visit the New Orleans Saints on the speedy track of the Superdome, the Los Angeles Rams welcome the Dallas Cowboys to the Coliseum, and Philip Rivers and the Chargers get another crack at Tom Brady’s Patriots.
But oddsmakers seem to agree that a potential shootout between the Indianapolis Colts and the Kansas City Chiefs is where this week’s receiving leaders will come from.
Odds to Record Most Receiving Yards During Divisional Round
|Player||Team||Odds to Record Most Rec Yds in Divisional Round at Bovada|
*Odds taken 08/01/19
Hilton was near the top of the odds board last week and mustered a solid 85 yards on five catches against the Texans, while playing essentially on one foot.
However, because the Colts never trailed in that game, he barely touched the ball in the second half.
And that’s something to keep in mind for this week: the three best receiving games last week all came in losing efforts.
Should Hill and Hilton Be favored?
This game could be a back and forth shootout, but considering Hilton is still not at 100 percent, I don’t love him to be the week’s best; especially when Indy should be attacking the Chiefs league-worst run defense.
Hill is a dynamic receiver in his own right, but the Colts did a great job containing DeAndre Hopkins last week even before he got hurt.
DeAndre Hopkins numbers:
-Last 2 games against the #Colts: 4.5 catches for 36.5 yards per game
-The other 15 games he played this season: 7.4 catches for 102.4 yards per game
An incredible job by Matt Eberflus, Pierre Desir and the entire Colts defense.
— Kevin Bowen (@KBowen1070) January 6, 2019
Hill will make a few plays, but with so may options in the Chiefs offense, taking him at +250 isn’t good enough value. Three of his last five games he’s gone under 75 yards.
Who Will Be Throwing Often?
I hate to be another one who questions Nick Foles’ magic, but facing the biggest spread of the week and a Saints team that is undefeated at home in the playoffs in the Brees era, it’s not unfathomable to think the Eagles will be trailing in the second half and need some scores. Granted, that’s the situation he seems to love.
🔥How Clutch is Nick Foles?🔥
Down 5 in 4th to Bears ▶️ Win
Down 1 in 3rd to Falcons ▶️ Win
Down 1 in 4th to Patriots ▶️ Win 🏆
— Jeff Skversky 6abc (@JeffSkversky) January 7, 2019
In order to complete any rally, he’ll need to find playmakers and Alshon Jeffrey and Zack Ertz should be the beneficiaries. However, my favorite play of the week is the man who will be lining up against the Eagles.
Pick Against the Worst Secondary
Last week’s winner was a bit of a surprise. At +2000, the Bears’ Allen Robinson racked up 143 yards on 10 catches. And he did it mostly by torching Philly’s Avonte Maddox on double moves.
— The Checkdown (@thecheckdown) January 7, 2019
Hmm… I wonder who else is a really crisp route runner that can put even the best corners on skates?
History won't forget none of the goofy stuff you once said. 🧘🏾♂️
— Michael Thomas (@Cantguardmike) January 4, 2019
Let’s hope this isn’t one of them. Take Michael Thomas at +800 and maybe put a little down on Jeffrey and Ertz too.