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Jameis Winston, Not Eli Manning, Favored to Be Next QB Benched

Matt McEwan

by Matt McEwan in NFL Football

Updated Mar 30, 2020 · 1:09 PM PDT

Jameis Winston Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Jameis Winston of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers is set to make his first start of 2018 in Week 6. Photo by Keith Allison (Flickr) [CC License]
  • Jameis Winston will start his first game of the 2018 NFL season in Week 6
  • Eli Manning, among others, has looked terrible this season
  • See the odds on which QB is most likely to be benched next

The FitzMagic show was a really fun ride. But we’ve witnessed the final act, haven’t we?

Apparently not.

Even though Jameis Winston has been prepping for nearly two weeks to make his first start of the 2018 NFL season, one online sports betting site isn’t so sure he’s locked in as the starter.

Odds to Be the Next QB Benched

Player Team 2018 Passer Rtg Odds to Be Next QB Benched (After Week 6)
Jameis Winston TB 74 +150
Josh Allen BUF 60.4 +500
Josh Rosen ARI 74.5 +500
Derek Carr OAK 90.4 +1000
Eli Manning NYG 90.9 +1000
FIELD N/A 92.9* +150

*Based on the median passer rating of all QBs who have started a game in 2018

Winston is a pretty heavy favorite (+150) to be the next quarterback benched (after Week 6) in the NFL.

Is Winston a Lock to Remain the Bucs’ Starter in 2018?

The NFL can be a very cutthroat business. If you’re not performing at an extremely high level at the most important position in the sport, there’s no guarantee your job is safe.

And even if you are performing at a very high level, there’s still no guarantee your job is safe – see Peyton Manning and the Colts.

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In Winston’s case, his career stats have been pretty average. But looking to individual performances, he’s been very up-and-down.

The 24-year-old has an 87 career passer rating, with his best season coming last year, when he posted a 92.2 rating. Winston is capable of doing some pretty incredible things on the field, but his decision-making has always been a cause for concern. (See both in the video below.)

But the Florida State product is going to be given ample opportunity in Tampa Bay this season. The Bucs used the first-overall pick in the 2015 NFL Draft to select Winston, and they picked up his fifth-year option which will pay him roughly $20.9 million in 2019.

It should be noted the 2019 salary doesn’t become guaranteed until March of 2019, unless Winston is unable to pass a physical before then – if he were to suffer an injury this season, for example.

Winston performed well enough in 2017 in Dirk Koetter’s first year as head coach to at the very least warrant the opportunity to play these final 12 games. There will be no going back to Ryan Fitzpatrick – barring injury – in 2018.

But Eli Manning has Been Awful

Strictly looking at Eli Manning’s numbers this season paint a very different picture than what the eye test tells you.

He lacks arm strength, his accuracy is fading rapidly, he cannot move at all in the pocket, and his decision-making has been questionable at best.

Even though the Giants are 1-5, and it’s largely a result of Eli’s play, he’s not the best bet here, either. He’s not a terrible bet at +1000, but not the best.

Why? Because Alex Tanney and Kyle Lauletta are the other QBs on the Giants roster. So for as poor as Manning has played, there really isn’t a better option currently on the roster.

And due to his legacy in New York, don’t expect the G-Men to bring anyone else in for this season.

Who is the Best Bet to Be Benched Next?

Though the FIELD provides you with some great options – like Ryan Tannehill, Case Keenum, CJ Beathard, and Blake Bortles – the +150 odds don’t provide much value.

I’d buy into the FIELD, but would also sprinkle a little on Derek Carr at +1000.

The Raiders pivot has thrown an NFL-high eight interceptions in 2018 under new head coach Jon Gruden. He’s not making great decisions, especially in the red zone, and Oakland is losing a lot of games.

Carr did just sign a five-year, $125 million contract extension with the Raiders back in the summer of 2017. But most of what was guaranteed in that contract will be in Carr’s hands after this season. Oakland would only eat $7.5 million in dead cap by parting ways with him at the end of 2018, saving $15 million in cap space.

And if you don’t believe Gruden is willing to make such a drastic move, keep in mind this is the man who had Khalil Mack – who has five sacks, four forced fumbles, one interception, and a TD in four games with the Bears – traded and has openly commented on not being on the same page as management.

That contract means nothing to Gruden. And he has a QB he chose behind Carr in AJ McCarron.

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