- Even after suffering his first loss of the season, Buffalo Bills QB Josh Allen has moved to become the +300 favorite in the NFL MVP odds
- Baltimore’s Lamar Jackson and Philadelphia’s Jalen Hurts both saw their MVP betting lines shorten to less than +1000
- Former MVPs Aaron Rodgers (Green Bay) and Tom Brady (Tampa Bay) saw their odds lengthen significantly
Buffalo Bills quarterback Josh Allen is the betting favorite in the NFL MVP odds. The lead horse changed, despite the fact he took a stumble in Week 3. And his betting line even shortened following Buffalo’s first setback of the NFL season.
Allen is now sitting as the +300 chalk. The Bills fell to 2-1 via a 21-19 loss at the Miami Dolphins. A week ago, Allen sat as the +450 second betting choice in this market behind Patrick Mahomes of the Kansas City Chiefs. Chiefs QB Mahomes also took his first loss of the season on Sunday.
While that pair remains 1-2, behind them, there was significant shuffling in the order of Allen’s pursuers.
Lamar Jackson is the third betting choice at +700. The Baltimore Ravens QB was the 2018 NFL MVP. Philadelphia Eagles QB Jalen Hurts is also at +700.
2022 NFL MVP Odds
|Josh Allen (Bills)||+300|
|Patrick Mahomes (Chiefs)||+550|
|Lamar Jackson (Ravens)||+700|
|Jalen Hurts (Eagles)||+700|
|Tua Tagovailoa (Dolphins)||+1400|
|Justin Herbert (Chargers)||+1600|
|Aaron Rodgers (Packers)||+1800|
|Joe Burrow (Bengals)||+2500|
|Matthew Stafford (Rams)||+3000|
|Tom Brady (Buccaneers)||+3000|
|Trevor Lawrence (Jaguars)||+5000|
|Kirk Cousins (Vikings)||+5000|
|Kyler Murray (Cardinals)||+5000|
|Derek Carr (Raiders)||+5000|
|Russell Wilson (Broncos)||+6000|
|Justin Jefferson (Vikings)||+6000|
|Jonathan Taylor (Colts)||+8000|
|Cooper Kupp (Rams)||+8000|
|Jameis Winston (Saints)||+10000|
|Derrick Henry (Titans)||+10000|
|Matt Ryan (Colts)||+10000|
|Stefon Diggs (Bills)||+10000|
Odds as of September 26 at Caesars Sportsbook. See the available Caesars Sportsbook promo code before wagering
It’s Allen, Mahomes and Jackson in the top three of the NFL MVP odds in the table above after Week 3.
When the NFL MVP future book was first released in February at NFL betting sites, Mahomes and two-time reigning NFL MVP Aaron Rodgers of the Green Bay Packers were the co-favorites.
Allen Airs It Out Against Dolphins
In defeat, Allen attempted a career-high 63 passes. That’s almost as many passes as he threw combined through the first two games of the season (69).
Allen’s 42 completions were also a personal best for his NFL career. But all those completions only led to two touchdown passes. He compiled 400 yards through the air. Only a 415-yard effort in Week 2 of the 2020 season, also at Miami in a 31-28 win, topped that total.
— NFL (@NFL) September 25, 2022
Allen’s 1,014 passing yards for the season leads all NFL QBs. His nine TD passes are second overall. Allen’s 109.8 passer rating is fourth among NFL starters. Yes, he and the Bills had an off day on Sunday. But Allen is still enjoying a stellar season.
Mahomes Also Falters
Chiefs QB Mahomes, the 2019 NFL MVP, is known in football circles as Mr September. He’s 13-3 all-time in the first month of the NFL regular season, with 48 TD passes.
Patrick Mahomes vs Eric Bienemy. Wow.pic.twitter.com/QmTz8swPk7
— Dov Kleiman (@NFL_DovKleiman) September 25, 2022
Sunday wasn’t vintage Mahomes, however. In a 20-17 loss to the Indianapolis Colts, Mahomes threw for just 262 yards and one TD. He tossed a game-ending interception. His completion percentage was 57% and his passer rating just 78.5. Those are his lowest totals over Mahomes’ last 10 games.
Mahomes was caught on camera arguing with KC offensive coordinator Eric Bienemy at the end of the first half.
Trending Upward In NFL MVP Race
Look out, here comes Lamar Jackson. In a 37-26 win at New England, the Ravens QB threw for four TDs and ran for another. Jackson is leading the NFL with 10 TD passes. He’s at the helm of the NFL’s #1 scoring offense (99 points). Jackson’s MVP betting line shortened from +1000 to +700.
— NFL Research (@NFLResearch) September 25, 2022
A newcomer to the upper echelon of the MVP race is Philadelphia’s Jalen Hurts. In a 24-8 win over the Washington Commanders, Hurts threw for 350 yards and three TDs. In the MVP betting line, Hurts is now +700. Last week, he was +1400.
Also trending upward were Miami QB Tua Tagovailoa (+1800 to +1400) and Jacksonville Jaguars QB Trevor Lawrence (+10000 to +5000).
Going Into a Downturn
Los Angeles Chargers Justin Herbert (rib cartilage fracture) was a game-time decision Sunday. He opted to play and was completely outplayed by Trevor Lawrence as the Chargers fell to 1-2. Herbert also fell, from +800 to +1600 in the NFL MVP odds.
Trevor Lawrence through 3 games
He’s him folks pic.twitter.com/4yFvxMqTs2
— ♰ (@JagsRuinedMe) September 25, 2022
Two-time defending MVP Rodgers (+1400 to +1800) and three-time MVP Tom Brady (+1800 to +3000) were unimpressive as Rodgers and the Packers edged Brady and the Buccaneers 14-12.
Minnesota’s Kirk Cousins (+2200 to +5000) and Denver’s Russell Wilson (+2900 to +5000) are also slip sliding away.
Who’s the NFL MVP Choice?
Like horse racing, it’s always good to check past performances. Allen is looking for his first MVP and is assembling a good case that this will be his year.
However, Jackson is putting together a start toward what could be a special campaign similar to the one that led to his 2018 NFL MVP win. Getting a little action on Jackson at +700 might turn out to be a wise investment.
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