- Caesars Sportsbook dropped the Rams from four-point to 3.5-point favorites over the Bengals in the Super Bowl
- The Super Bowl will be played Sunday night on the Rams’ homefield at SoFi Stadium in Inglewood, California
- An analysis of the line move can be found below
The Super Bowl point spread made a move Thursday when Caesars Sportsbook became the first book to drop the Los Angeles Rams to 3.5-point favorites rather than four-point picks over the Cincinnati Bengals.
Super Bowl 56 Odds
|Los Angeles Rams||-175||-3.5 (-110)||Over 48.5 (-110)|
|Cincinnati Bengals||+150||+3.5 (-110)||Under 48.5 (-110)|
Odds as of February 10th at CaesarsSportsbook
On Thursday, no other books immediately adjusted the line in the Bengals’ favor. FanDuel, DraftKings, Barstool Sports, TwinSpires and FoxBet all kept the Rams at minus-4. BetMGM had Los Angeles as a 4.5-point favorite.
Mattress Mack Strikes
The reason Caesars Sportsbook moved the line most lies with the betting activity of the legendary Mattress Mack. The Houston bedding king placed a $4,534,000 wager on the Bengals to win outright on the moneyline in one of the biggest bets on the Super Bowl.
.@MattressMack is ice cold gambling but he’s keeping a positive mindset
“A setback is just a setup for a comeback” pic.twitter.com/sbMJv9x1Ow
— Barstool Sportsbook (@BSSportsbook) February 2, 2022
Mack bet the Bengals at odds of +170, which means he will cash a ticket for $12,241,800 if Cincinnati knocks off the Rams. Mack will clear $7,707,800 with a Bengals’ win.
However, Caesars has also taken two sizeable spread bets on the Rams at minus-4, one for $522,500 and another for $105,000. Yet it was Mattress Mack’s moneyline play that has moved the needle.
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Public Likes Bengals
The public money is also leaning towards the Bengals in NFL public betting trends.
Cincinnati is getting 59% of the spread handle and 63% total bets and 58% of the moneyline handle and 65% of the total bets. There appears to be a growing belief in Joe Burrow and the Bengals just two years removed from having the worst record in the NFL at 2-14.
— Cincinnati Bengals (@Bengals) February 10, 2022
Those numbers indicate there hasn’t been a huge amount of sharp money influencing the lines, though the pros seed to be leaning to the Rams’ side on the moneyline.
The Over is getting hit more frequently in the total betting where the line is set at 48.5 points. In all, 58% of the bets are on the Over as well as 57% of the handle.
Rams Have Better Record
The Rams (15-5) have two more wins than the Bengals (13-7) this season, though that hasn’t seemed to deter the majority of bettors – and the redoubtable Mattress Mack – from backing Cincinnati.
Both teams enter on obvious hot streaks as can be seen in the Rams vs Bengals matchup breakdown, having won three straight playoff games. Going back to the regular season, the Rams have won eight of their last nine games and the Bengals have been victorious in six of their last seven.
— Los Angeles Rams (@RamsNFL) February 7, 2022
Analytics feel the Rams should be somewhat bigger favorites than their current listing. Factoring the Rams having home-field advantage, Team Rankings has Los Angeles as 5.4 points better than the Bengals and Jeff Sagarin’s ratings at USA Today gives the Rams a 5.02-point edge.
Will Line Move Again?
It will be interesting to see if more books follow Caesars Sportsbooks’ lead and lower the line in the 2022 Super Bowl odds. If they do, the gut feeling here is money – both from sharps and squares – will start flowing towards the Rams.
Los Angeles has the better team with a star-studded roster and a veteran quarterback in Matthew Stafford, who can match Burrow throw for throw. Add in the fact the Rams will be playing in familiar surroundings in California and there are a lot of reasons they are an attractive choice at minus-3.5.
Time to put some respect on Matthew Stafford pic.twitter.com/NfyfZWZuZy
— PFF (@PFF) February 10, 2022
That, in turn, could cause the line to inch back up in advance of kickoff.
Super Bowl 56 Prop & Betting Guides