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Super Bowl Point Spread Holding Strong at Rams -4.5; Could We See Line Movement?

Robert Duff

by Robert Duff in NFL Football

Updated Feb 4, 2022 · 2:53 PM PST

Los Angeles Rams
Los Angeles Rams head coach Sean McVay, left, and Aaron Donald celebrate after the NFC Championship NFL football game against the San Francisco 49ers Sunday, Jan. 30, 2022, in Inglewood, Calif. The Rams won 20-17 to advance to the Super Bowl. (AP Photo/Marcio Jose Sanchez)
  • The Los Angeles Rams are 4.5-point home favorites over the Cincinnati Bengals in the 2022 Super Bowl game
  • Historically, Super Bowl favorites of exactly 4.5 points are 0-3 both straight up and against the spread
  • In the opening line, the Rams were set as the 3.5-point chalk to win the big game

If you’re a Super Bowl trends bettor and a Cincinnati Bengals backer, right about now your face is getting sore from smiling so much. On the other hand, trend bettors who are playing the Los Angeles Rams want the line to make like that 1990s Reel 2 Real hit and move it, move it.

Los Angeles has shifted to be 4.5-point favorites over the Bengals since the Rams opened as 3.5-point favorites. Super Bowl history shows that’s a bad place for a favorite to be situated.

Three times in previous Super Bowls, a team has been favored by exactly 4.5 points. Each time, not only did those favorites fail to cover, they all lost outright.

NFL Super Bowl Odds

Matchup Opening Spread Current Spread Opening Total Current Total
Rams vs Bengals LAR -3.5 LAR -4.5 50 48.5

Odds as of February 4th at Caesars

How has the line movement been going so far for Super Bowl 56? Let’s check that out. First, though, here’s where the Rams vs Bengals Super Bowl odds are at currently.

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Public Money Backing the Bengals

It’s important to understand why do betting lines move? Generally, when it comes to the Super Bowl, if you follow the NFL public betting trends, they are usually supporting the favorite. Lately, though, as the point spread is lengthening in favor of the Rams, the public is turning its betting eyes towards the Bengals.

Currently, there’s 56% of the handle and 66% of bets on the spread leaning toward Cincinnati at +4.5 points. Likewise, a moneyline that is showing the Bengals as the +170 underdog is getting the majority of the action. Cinci is the pick with 66% of the handle and 67% of bets.

In terms of the total wagering, the over is getting a slight edge in the public money. It’s drawing 54% of handle and 55% of bets.

The public is a combined 139-137-4 ATS in NFL betting this season.

History on Bengals’ Side

As mentioned, being a 4.5-point has traditionally proven to be the equivalent of Super Bowl kryptonite. In fact, the force of such odds even proved capable of bringing the GOAT to his knees.

Interestingly, the other three occasions in Super Bowl odds history when betting a Super Bowl favorite required laying exactly 4.5 points all came within the past nine Super Bowl games.

The 2018 Super Bowl saw Tom Brady and the New England Patriots set as 4.5-point picks over the Philadelphia Eagles. However, it was the Eagles, with backup quarterback Nick Foles at the helm, who engineered a stunning 41-33 upset victory.

Two years earlier, the Carolina Panthers were a 4.5-point pick over the Denver Broncos in Super Bowl 50. Denver won 24-10. Interestingly, the MVP of that game was Broncos linebacker Von Miller, who is now playing for the Rams.

In 2013, the San Francisco 49ers were a 4.5-point favorite over the Baltimore Ravens. But it was the Ravens who were 34-31 winners.

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Recent Super Bowls Influencing the Total?

There’s been significant movement in the total since the Super Bowl 56 betting line opened and it is trending downward. The over/under opened at 50 points. It has since shortened to 48.5 points.

If it holds at that number, it will be the smallest total for a Super Bowl game since the Broncos and Panthers kicked off with an over/under of 43 points in Super Bowl 50.

That game went under, as have each of the past three Super Bowls. However, over the longer haul, the total has proven to be a 50-50 proposition. The over/under is 5-5 in the last 10 Super Bowls, 6-6 in the last 12 and 7-7 over the past 14 games. It’s a dead heat at 27 over and 27 under since the total wager was first offered on the second Super Bowl game.

Rams a Solid Over Bet

This season, the Rams are among nine NFL teams that have hit double digits on the over. They are 10-9-1. No NFL team has gone under this season more often than the Bengals. They are 8-12 on the total during the 2021-22 campaign.

Four of Cincinnati’s last five games have gone under. As well, the under is five-for-five in the past five games between the Rams and Bengals. With a total of 48.5 points or lower assigned to games this season, the Rams’ over/under is 7-4. In the same scenario, the Bengals are 6-9 on the total.

This is the third Bengals postseason game with a total of exactly 48.5 points. Both previous games went under.

Cincinnati’s 26-19 home-field AFC Wild Card win over the Las Vegas Raiders and the Bengals’ 19-16 AFC Divisional Round victory over the Tennessee Titans were both assigned totals of 48.5 points.

Rams Spreading the Wealth

The line has steadily moved in favor of the Rams since it opened at LA -3.5. It almost immediately lengthened to Rams -4.5 when the line opened last Sunday. After shortening to LA -4, it climbed back up to Rams -4.5.

The Rams are 5-1-1 ATS in their last seven games against the Bengals. However, Cincinnati is proving to be a resilient bunch in the postseason. They are 3-0 both SU and ATS as an underdog during the playoffs.

The favorite has won and covered in two of the past three and three of the last five Super Bowl games.

NFC Not the Favorite One

This is the first time since Super Bowl 50 that the NFC team is favored in the Super Bowl odds. That also doesn’t bode well for the Rams.

When an NFC club is favored, betting against the spread is a wise Super Bowl wagering strategy. NFC teams have lost outright the last three times that they’ve been Super Bowl favorites.

You have to go back to Super Bowl 45, when the Green Bay Packers beat the Pittsburgh Steelers 31-25 as the 3-point chalk, to find an NFC team that’s covered as a favorite in the big game.

NFC teams as Super Bowl favorites are a bad play in general. They’re 4-4 SU and 1-5-2 ATS as the favored team since 1996.

Super Bowl 56 Betting Guides

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