- Despite losing two weeks in a row, Nick Mangold is sticking with betting against the spread in Week 4
- The former Jets center is 1-2 on his weekly picks (-1.67 units) and 4-2 with his MNF props (+1.51 units); he’s 5-4 (-0.16 units) in total
- Check out Mangold’s ATS pick for Week 4 below
Betting the spread has not been kind to your old pal Nick.
After Kyle Allen went off for 261 passing yards and four touchdowns, leading the Panthers to a 38-20 victory over the Cardinals on the road, I’m now 0-2 when betting against the spread, and down 1.67 units on my weekly pick.
Heading into Week 4, my sports betting tutor, Matt McEwan, has (a) offered to let me make a lateral move in my sports betting journey and bet totals this week, and (b) asked me to remind you all that these are my picks, not his …
Matt claimed that we don’t want to fall victim to the overconfidence bias in sports betting. He taught me that one example of this is consistently placing bets in the same way, whether that be the same team or the same type of bet – like having to correctly pick a game ATS before being able to make a different type of bet.
But he also said if the bet I liked most in Week 4 was against the spread, then we’ll roll with it, stating we also don’t want to fall victim to the outcome bias in sports betting. The idea here is that we don’t want to stop betting the spread just because we lost a game.
Laying two points on a Cardinals team that was looking better and better by the quarter, who were also playing at home against an undrafted second-year quarterback making his second career start, was a good bet. If value like that comes up again, we shouldn’t shy away just because of the result we got last week.
The bright side of this little losing streak I’m on, is I’ve gotten the opportunity to learn a ton of betting psychology from SportsBettingDime.
And don’t come at me with any of this, “I had a feeling Kyle Allen would light up the Cards.” No you didn’t. And if you do actually believe it was foreseeable, you are falling victim to the hindsight bias. Read up on it and correct it, please.
The bright side of this little losing streak I’m on, is I’ve gotten the opportunity to learn a ton of betting psychology from SportsBettingDime. It’s some really cool stuff. I recommend checking it out if you want to become a more intelligent sports bettor.
Mangold’s Week 4 Pick
So after considering Matt’s offer to bet totals this weekend, I took to the NFL odds to see what I liked. And – as you likely already knew from the title of this article – the wager that really stands out to me is another bet against the spread.
Browns vs Ravens Week 4 Spread
|Cleveland Browns||+7 (-114)|
|Baltimore Ravens||-7 (-104)|
*Odds taken September 28
I won my first bet of the season with SBD by picking the Ravens, and I’m going back to them in Week 4 – not because I won the last time I bet the Ravens, which would be a case of the outcome bias creeping in, but they’re just a far superior team to the Browns.
Despite losing a close one to Kansas City last week, Baltimore really showed a lot of promise in that game. Their offense posted 28 points and 452 total yards, 203 of which came on the ground.
— SportsCenter (@SportsCenter) September 22, 2019
The Ravens lead the league in scoring and total offense through three weeks. When you can get 5.9 yards per carry, good things will happen for you on offense.
Baltimore’s defense wasn’t very successful in slowing down Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs offense last week, giving up 363 yards through the air. But Mahomes and Baker Mayfield are different quarterbacks. The former also gets more time to throw the ball.
Expect John Harbaugh to have Baker schemed up after a poor showing last week, while Lamar Jackson and the offense continue to roll. Give me Baltimore -7.
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