Monday Night Football Full Betting Preview: Ravens vs Texans

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Week 12’s Monday Night Football matchup (November 27th) features the Houston Texans heading to Baltimore to take on the Ravens. Kickoff is scheduled for 8:30 PM ET at M&T Bank Stadium in Baltimore, Maryland. The weather is expected to be clear and 48° Fahrenheit (9° Celsius) at kickoff, dropping to 44° Fahrenheit (7° Celsius) as the night goes on, with minimal wind. Here is your full betting preview, with advice for the moneyline, the spread, the game total, and a few intriguing props.

Injury Reports

HOUSTON TEXANS

BALTIMORE RAVENS

Team Stats

TEXANS vs RAVENS

*Weighted Team DVOA prioritizes the team’s most recent performances.

TEXANS OFFENSE vs RAVENS DEFENSE

*In regards to any defensive DVOA measurement, a negative number is better.

RAVENS OFFENSE vs TEXANS DEFENSE

Game Preview

Ahead of Week 12’s Monday Night Football matchup between the 4-6 Texans and 5-5 Ravens, it’s vital to keep in mind that the term “sexy” is subjective. While many find themselves wishing the NFL had the ability to flex their Monday night matchup, there are others out there who are stimulated by the idea of a 7-3 final score. Though a total of ten points may be a little hyperbolic, I hope my message is clear: this is going to be a defensive battle.

But let me stop you before you start hailing both of these defenses as dominant units. The Ravens defense is worthy of the tag, ranking third in points allowed and having recorded shutouts in two of their last three games. However, the Texans rank 31st in points allowed, largely thanks to the absence of many key players on the defensive side of the ball — JJ Watt, Whitney Mercilus, Brian Cushing etc. So how is this going to be a defensive battle? Don’t be fooled by Baltimore’s ranking in points scored (17th). Their defense and special teams have accounted for more than 25-percent of their total touchdowns scored this season (six non-offensive touchdowns, versus 16 offensive).

Quarterback Joe Flacco has been dreadful, tossing just nine touchdowns to 11 interceptions. But it wouldn’t be fair for the Ravens’ pivot to garner all the blame, as his offensive line has been mediocre at best, and offensive coordinator Marty Mornhinweg seems far too content with three yards and a pile of dust. Flacco and the Ravens offense will have a prime opportunity to breakout this week, assuming they are willing to push the ball down the field a little.

Baltimore’s defense would have been in for a much tougher test had rookie sensation Deshaun Watson not torn his ACL in practice back in early November. After taking over the offense in the second half of Houston’s Week 1 matchup with the Jaguars, Watson threw for 1,699 yards and 19 touchdowns in 6.5 games, good for a 103 passer rating. The 12th-overall pick was absolutely electric in his time under center, posting a 3-3 record, with two of those losses coming by just three points in Seattle and New England. Unfortunately, the Texans were forced to turn the offense back over to Tom Savage, who lost his job by committing two fumbles against Jacksonville in Week 1, allowing the Jags to jump out to an early 19-0 lead before halftime.

Though he will never have the same effect as Watson on this offense, Savage is coming off the best game of his career. The former fourth-round pick posted single-game career-highs in completion-percentage (68.75-percent), passing touchdowns (two), and passer rating (97.1) in a 31-21 win over the Arizona Cardinals. The bad news is the Cardinal defense ranks 22nd against the pass, whereas the Ravens are second.

In order for Houston to hang around in this game, it’s crucial they force Flacco to beat them. If Savage turns the ball over and gives points away, it’ll be awfully difficult for Houston to fight its way back against such a stingy Baltimore D.

Betting the Moneyline

BEST TEXANS MONEYLINE: +290

BEST RAVENS MONEYLINE: -350

TEXANS STRAIGHT UP TRENDS

• HOU is 1-3 SU on the road this season
• HOU is 1-3 SU as a road underdog this season
• Since 2014, HOU is 11-17 SU on the road
• Since 2014, HOU is 7-16 SU as a road underdog
• HOU is 0-3 SU after a win this season

*2014 is when Bill O’Brien took over as head coach.

RAVENS STRAIGHT UP TRENDS

• BAL is 2-2 SU at home this season
• BAL is 2-1 SU as a home favorite this season
• Since 2008, BAL is 58-20 SU at home (3rd-best in NFL)
• Since 2016, BAL is 7-3 SU as a home favorite
• BAL is 1-3 SU after a win this season

*2008 is when Joe Flacco took over as the starting QB in Baltimore

HEAD-TO-HEAD STRAIGHT UP TRENDS

• BAL is 7-2 SU all-time against HOU
• BAL is 4-0 SU at home against HOU
• HOU is 2-1 SU against BAL in their last three meetings

EXPERT MONEYLINE ADVICE: RAVENS (-350)

Baltimore is simply too dominant in front of its home crowd at M&T Bank Stadium, and Tom Savage cannot be relied upon to protect the football, especially against this defense, which leads the NFL in takeaways (23). In six career starts, Savage has only made it through one game without committing a turnover. He won’t make it two this week. I think it’s more likely that Baltimore’s defense add to its four touchdowns on the season.

The Ravens don’t present much value on the moneyline, but a win is a win.

Betting Against the Spread

BEST TEXANS SPREAD: +7.5 (-110)

BEST RAVENS SPREAD: -7.5 (-107)

TEXANS AGAINST THE SPREAD TRENDS

• HOU is 6-4 ATS this season
• HOU is 3-1 ATS on the road this season
• HOU is 4-2 ATS as an underdog this season
• Since 2014, HOU is 14-20-1 ATS as an underdog (third-worst in NFL)
• Since 2014, HOU is 10-12-1 as a road underdog

RAVENS AGAINST THE SPREAD TRENDS

• BAL is 5-4-1 ATS this season
• BAL is 2-0-1 ATS in their last three games
• BAL is 2-2 ATS at home this season
• BAL is 3-2 ATS as a favorite this season
• Since 2016, BAL is 6-4 as a home favorite

HEAD-TO-HEAD AGAINST THE SPREAD TRENDS

• BAL is 5-4 ATS all-time against HOU
• Underdogs are 5-4 ATS in their nine meetings
• BAL is 2-2 ATS against HOU at home
• BAL is 1-2 ATS as a home favorite against HOU

EXPERT AGAINST THE SPREAD ADVICE: RAVENS (-7.5)

The only time Baltimore has been favored by more than one score this season, Joe Flacco and company came through against the Browns. Though I have a hard time trusting the Ravens offense to fully take advantage of the opportunity at hand, their defense will give them a boost against a Houston offense that has committed 19 turnovers this season (30th).

Totals Betting

BEST OVER ODDS: 38 (-110)

BEST UNDER ODDS: 38.5 (-110)

TEXANS TOTALS TRENDS

• HOU has gone OVER in six of ten games this season
• The OVER is 2-2 when HOU plays on the road this season
• HOU has gone UNDER in two of their last three
• Since 2014, the OVER is 11-11-1 when HOU is a road underdog

RAVENS TOTALS TRENDS

• BAL has gone OVER in six of ten games this season
• The OVER is 2-2 when BAL plays at home this season
• BAL has gone OVER in five of their last six
• Since 2014, the OVER is 10-13 when BAL is a home favorite

HEAD-TO-HEAD TOTALS TRENDS

• The OVER is 4-5 in their nine meetings
• In their last five meetings, the OVER is just 1-4
• The OVER is 0-4 in games played in BAL

EXPERT TOTALS ADVICE: UNDER (-110)

In three of Tom Savage’s four starts this season, the total has stayed under, and only one of those games came against a defense as fierce as what he’ll face Monday night. Savage will be lucky to put double digits on the scoreboard in this one, and Baltimore does not have the offense to run the score up. The Ravens will remain extremely conservative all game, relying on their defense to win it for them.

Prop Betting

EXPERT PICK: UNDER (-105)

Joe Flacco has faced some pretty poor pass defenses this season — Tennessee, Oakland, Green Bay, etc. Yet, he has only surpassed 235 yards through the air once, and has failed to reach 190 in six of his ten starts this season. Though a matchup with this Texan secondary would have most signal-callers salivating, the Ravens are not going to let Flacco cut it loose.

EXPERT PICK: DANNY WOODHEAD (+1000)

In Danny Woodhead’s first game back from the hamstring injury that sidelined him for ten weeks, the versatile back only received six touches. But that came in a 23-0 blowout of Green Bay. Woodhead will become Flacco’s most-trusted option in the passing game, especially down in the red zone. The 32-year-old is a bit of a longshot, but that’s exactly what you need when betting this kind of prop.

EXPERT PICK: OVER (-135)

DeAndre Hopkins is averaging 6.2 receptions per game this season. With Will Fuller V out of the lineup again, and Houston likely to be playing from behind, Bill O’Brien will make a concerted effort to get the ball in the hands of his best play-maker.