Next NFL Coach Fired? Latest Odds from Prediction Markets

• With NFL Week 9 concluding, many teams have accepted their fate, with a lost season meaning a coaching change might be in the offing
• Teams that could make a coaching change include the New York Jets, Indianapolis Colts, Los Angeles Chargers, Washington Commanders, and Philadelphia Eagles
• Prediction markets offer investors the chance to weigh in on which coach will be the first to go and potentially profit

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With the 2026 NFL regular season more than half over, many teams are already looking toward the 2027 NFL Draft, and many are wondering who will be the next NFL coach fired?

For some teams, like the Jets, a disappointing season was somewhat expected. For others, like the Chargers, it was not. Now—to get a head start on an inevitable search for a new head coach—some will make a preemptive firing, let an interim head coach finish the year, and at the same time begin compiling candidates for 2027.

Among the head coaches in obvious jeopardy are the Jets’ Aaron Glenn, the Colts’ Shane Steichen, the Chargers’ Jim Harbaugh, the Commanders’ Dan Quinn, and the Eagles’ Nick Sirianni. Glenn and Steichen will probably finish the season before getting axed, though one never knows with Jets owner Woody Johnson and Colts’ increasingly visible owner, Carlie Irsay-Gordon, with her headset and notebook.

Prediction markets give the opportunity to pick one of the HC’s facing the firing squad and garner profit for an accurate projection.

Next NFL Coach Fired Odds: Prediction Markets for NFL Hot Seats

Trading volume for this market is beyond $180k and will rise as the season proceeds.

Philadelphia’s Nick Sirianni is at just under 30% market probability to be the next NFL coach fired. Washington’s Dan Quinn is at 20%. Los Angeles’ Jim Harbaugh, Indianapolis’ Shane Steichen, and New York’s Aaron Glenn are other noteworthy markets.

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Nick Sirianni

Although it might seem counterintuitive for Sirianni to be in jeopardy two years after winning the Super Bowl, it should be remembered that it was these same Philadelphia Eagles with the same GM Howie Roseman and the same owner Jeffrey Lurie who fired head coach Doug Pederson after a 4-11-1 season three years after he and backup QB Nick Foles used the “Philly Special” gadget play to beat Bill Belichick, Tom Brady, and the New England Patriots to win Super Bowl LII.

In short, the Eagles act preemptively.

Sirianni is polarizing and emotional. The nucleus of his team that went to two Super Bowls and won one is aging, departing, and declining. His hiring of offensive coordinator Sean Mannion alienated QB Jalen Hurts before Hurts was lost for the season with blood clots. The team is in transition, sits at 2-7, and is on its way to a dreadful finish.

Lurie also fired a guy named Andy Reid. Like Baltimore Ravens owner Steve Bisciotti with John Harbaugh after 2025, some owners believe they’re doing their loyal employee a favor by letting him move on even if they push him out the door. After the Week 9 loss to the New York Giants (coached by John Harbaugh), Sirianni did not rule out staff changes.

If the Eagles also made “staff changes” including Sirianni, he would be out of work for about two minutes and would receive more money and more say-so over personnel with a new team.

For any other franchise, it would be unthinkable to fire a good young coach like Sirianni, but since it’s the Eagles, it’s very possible. However, they’re unlikely to do it in season, though his market probability leads the pack.

Dan Quinn

Quinn is expediting the same thing that happened to him with the Atlanta Falcons in getting off to a fast start and incrementally watching the thing come apart. After a first season with exhilarating rookie QB Jayden Daniels, the long-suffering Washington fans were treated to a 12-5 season, a playoff upset over the Super Bowl favorite Detroit Lions, and a trip to the NFC title game where they lost to the eventual Super Bowl champion Eagles.

Since then, injuries to Daniels and a few ill-fated trades, including acquiring Deebo Samuel, have sabotaged their innocent climb. They went 5-12 in 2025 and are sitting at 2-5-1 this season.

Losing is one thing, but making egregious gaffes is still another. Quinn’s clock management error in Week 5 against the Giants resulted in a 27-27 tie when the Commanders were well within field goal range at the end of overtime. They ran a play where Daniels was tackled, and the clock ran out when they should have simply spiked the ball.

Fortunately for him, owner Josh Harris is not as irrationally reactive as former owner Daniel Snyder, but at a certain point, the decision needs to be made to focus on giving the QB an offense-minded head coach who does not have a history of in-game errors that Quinn does.

A change during the season could be seen as putting Quinn out of his misery and acknowledging the inevitable. He’s more likely to go than Sirianni despite trailing the Eagles coach by about 10 percentage points.

Jim Harbaugh

It’s harder to out-Jet the Jets, but the LA Chargers are managing it under Jim Harbaugh.

The younger Harbaugh brother has left a trail of people angry at him and resenting his arrogance going back to his playing days with the Bears, Colts, and others. That extended to his coaching career with the San Francisco 49ers and later when he returned to college, culminating with a National Championship at Michigan in 2023, after which he left while a sign-stealing investigation was being completed. It found no wrongdoing on his part, but held him responsible as the head coach.

He escaped the college ranks to take over the Chargers, a team that already had a “franchise” QB in place, Justin Herbert, and was viewed as having underachieved under data wonk ex-HC Brandon Staley. The admittedly affable Staley ran his team robotically, like he’d been subjected to A Clockwork Orange-style indoctrination to stats above all, and it cost the team games.

Harbaugh is old school, preferring a punishing defense and a run-centric offense. In the first two seasons at the helm, LA went 22-12, losing in the Wild Card round in both seasons. For 2026, they tried to bolster a weak point in the offensive line to better protect Herbert with Tyler Biadasz and Cole Strange. Biadasz was hurt in training camp. Strange was a questionable first-round pick in the 2022 NFL Draft by Belichick and bounced to the Dolphins in 2025 before landing in LA for 2026.

In what will be viewed as the flashpoint in the Chargers’ ongoing nightmare of 0-8 and counting, Harbaugh brought former Dolphins HC Mike McDaniel as his offensive coordinator.

Whether it’s because McDaniel and Herbert are ill-suited to each other, there’s a disconnect with the offensive scheme, or Herbert is under siege due to that porous offensive line, the reality is that it’s not working.

The problem here is money.

Would the Chargers swallow the remaining two years on the 5-year, $80 million contract Harbaugh signed in 2024?

There are two schools of thought:

1. He’s got a body of work that warrants a mulligan with a new O-line and a new OC in 2027
2. It’s hard to justify keeping a HC after a 3-14 season, no matter who he is

This is not a decision that will be made in season. So Jim Harbaugh is safe from being the next NFL coach axed.