NFL Picks Against the Spread for Week 9: Expert is on a 7-2 ATS Run

Week 9 of the 2026 NFL regular season is officially underway. With Thursday Night Football already in the books, my attention now turns to the rest of the weekend’s slate to find the best NFL odds on the board.

Navigating the middle of the season requires a sharp eye for recent team form, situational mismatches, and NFL ATS records. I am currently on a 7-2 against the spread run over the last three weeks with my best bets, and now I have identified my top betting angles for Sunday.

Whether you are looking to back dominant home favorites or fade road teams laying heavy chalk, here are my comprehensive predictions for every remaining Week 9 game, plus my best bets.

NFL Week 9 Picks Against the Spread for Every Game

Odds are provided by BetMGM, current as of publication and subject to movement.

Best NFL ATS Picks for Week 9

Here is why I am trusting these specific situational edges to cover the spread in NFL Week 9.

NFL ATS Pick #1: Falcons +3 vs Bengals

The Cincinnati Bengals carry massive momentum into Atlanta, boasting a strong offensive output this season. Meanwhile, the Falcons have struggled, managing a mere 20.6 points per game this season. However, I believe the oddsmakers are laying a trap by asking the Bengals to cover a full field goal in Spain.

The matchup script heavily dictates why Atlanta is the right side. Joe Burrow is shredding defenses with a brilliant 73.0% completion rate and 302.1 passing yards per game. The most effective way to neutralize an elite quarterback is to keep him watching from the sidelines. Atlanta features a dominant rushing attack behind Bijan Robinson, who is rushing for 97.5 yards per game on a highly efficient 5.20 yards per attempt.

By utilizing heavy personnel and establishing Robinson early, the 3-5 Falcons can sustain long drives and limit possessions. Quarterback Michael Penix Jr. is averaging 213.7 passing yards per game, which is more than enough to manage the chains off play-action concepts once the run is established. The Bengals secondary just gave up 304 passing yards to Cam Ward, so Penix can bounce back in this matchup.

Cincinnati also has a big matchup against the Steelers next week, so it could be a lookahead spot. I trust Atlanta to keep this game close and cover the number.

NFL Week 9 Pick: Falcons +3

NFL ATS Pick #2: Colts +5.5 vs Cowboys

This is a gross one. I faded the Cowboys last week, and they lost outright to the Cardinals. Dallas is getting another spread that is over a field goal, and I cannot trust this defense on the road. The Indianapolis Colts are catching 5.5 points in their own building against the Dallas Cowboys, and I believe the Colts will make this a game.

This is more of a bet against Dallas than it is on Indianapolis, but the Cowboys have given up 4.76 rushing yards per attempt, which is the fourth most in the NFL. Jonathan Taylor should be in for a big game.

I trust the Colts to establish the line of scrimmage, implement a ball-control rushing script, and shorten the game. By reducing the overall number of possessions, Indianapolis maximizes the value of those 5.5 points. This is a great situational spot to back the home underdog.

NFL Week 9 Pick: Colts +5.5

NFL ATS Pick #3: Patriots -3 vs Packers

The New England Patriots are laying three points against the Green Bay Packers, and that is a great situational spot. When a spread sits right on the key number of three, backing the home team requires confidence in their ability to dictate the physical terms of the matchup. New England is perfectly positioned to do just that.

Green Bay has zero rushing attack, even with Josh Jacobs back. The Patriots know the Packers are going to throw the ball, and they will be prepared to limit Jordan Love and Co. Drake Maye is 17-0 straight up and 12-5 against the spread in his career as a favorite of three points or more.

The Patriots are at home, and I trust New England to clear the field goal requirement and cash this ticket.

NFL Week 9 Pick: Patriots -3