The Thanksgiving NFL Archive: 5 Statistical Anomalies That Defy Decades of Football Logic

Of all the great Thanksgiving traditions in the US, one that all families share is football.

Thanksgiving Day NFL games are as essential as turkey and pumpkin pie.

Sometimes, those Thanksgiving games are not more than background noise while you and your family argue about politics. But in other years, between massive upsets, extraordinary output, and perfect passes, you could very well witness history.

Are they common enough to wager on at these NFL betting apps or trade on at prediction markets like Kalshi? Probably not. But imagine how exciting it would have been if you had sprinkled something on any of these five statistical anomalies from Thanksgiving Day NFL games.

1. The Efficiency Paradox

Randy Moss was often un-guardable through his career but on Thanksgiving in 1998, he took it to another level.

Moss had three receptions for 163 yards and three touchdowns in Minnesota’s 46-36 win against the Cowboys. He was not tackled and averaged 54.3 yards per catch in one of the most ridiculously efficient and explosive performances of all time.

While nobody has matched that on turkey day, several other receivers have had some very efficient days, where they scored more than they were brought down.

Mal Kutner was a perfect 2-for-2 for the Chicago Cardinals against the Detroit Lions in 1948, catching two passes for 70 yards and two TDs.

Cloyce Box did get tackled in 1950, but just once, as he had four catches for 123 yards and three TDs for the Lions against the New York Yankees. Yes, these Yankees did play football, despite what those stats might tell you.

The following receivers turned three catches into two TDs on Thanksgiving:

• 2010: Deion Branch, Patriots vs. Lions, three catches, 113 yards, two TDs
• 1962: Gail Cogdill, Lions vs. Packers, three catches, 79 yards, two TDs
• 1962: Art Powell, New York Titans vs. Broncos, three catches, 57 yards, two TDs
• 1989: Cris Carter, Eagles vs. Cowboys, three catches, 53 yards, two TDs
• 2024: Jayden Reed, Packers vs. Dolphins, three catches, 24 yards, two TDs

2. Untouchable Single-Game Pillars

Perhaps the most unbreakable record in the NFL was set on Thanksgiving, as Ernie Never recorded a 40-point game for the Chicago Cardinals against the Chicago Bears in 1929.

Nevers rushed for six touchdowns and kicked four extra points, the latter setting him apart from Alvin Kamara, who had six rushing scores in a Christmas Day explosion in 2020.

Position players kicking extra points just doesn’t happen anymore, so a seventh score is going to be needed to top Evers. Seeing as only Kamara and Dub Jones (1951) have done it in the nearly 100 years since, that doesn’t seem very likely.

In 1976, OJ Simpson set the NFL record for rushing yards in a single game, gaining 273 for the Bills against the Lions. That number was eclipsed the following year by Walter Payton, and four others have since topped Payton, so we can move on from OJ now.

Bobby Dillon had four interceptions for the Packers against the Lions in 1953, which is tied with several others for the most in a single game.

Another record was set in a Lions vs Packers Thanksgiving game, although in the other direction, as Detroit’s Jack Christiansen had a pair of punt returns for touchdowns, which is also tied for most in league history.

Those are tough to replicate for a lot of reasons, mainly because you can simply avoid a defensive back and punt returner.

3. Perfect Passer Rating Club

A perfect passer rating (158.3) is achieved by a quarterback once every 420 starts. Sixty-seven quarterbacks have accomplished it in league history, a total of 82 times.

It happened just once in 2025 and three times in 2024. It happens, but isn’t incredibly common.

It’s happened twice on Thanksgiving, both times in Lions games.

Dave Krieg threw a perfect game for Detroit against the Bills in 1994, going 20 of 25 for 351 yards and three touchdowns.

Tom Brady was perfect in 2010 against the Lions, going 21 of 27 for 341 yards and four TDs. It’s one of three career-perfect rating games for Brady, with two of those coming against the Lions.

4. The Traditional Host Burden

Speaking of Detroit, it has been part of this Thanksgiving tradition since 1934, and hasn’t exactly done a great job of sending the home fans away happy.

The Lions are 38-46-2 all time on Thanksgiving, and in recent years, have had NFL fans wondering if they should have the game taken away from them.

Between 2004 and 2023, the Lions have had the two longest Thanksgiving Day losing streaks of all time. They dropped nine in a row from 2004-12 and seven in a row from 2017-23.

This season, the Lions play host to the Bears on Thanksgiving, who they defeated in 2024 to end that second streak.

The Dallas Cowboys are the other annual Thanksgiving host, starting in 1966, and have had better luck. The Cowboys are 35-22-1 on Thanksgiving, and are nearly +4 points per game on average.

Dallas is currently on a four-game win streak on Thanksgiving, its third of at least that many. It will look to extend that to five this year against the Eagles. The Cowboys longest win streak on Thanksgiving came when they won six in a row from 1980-85.

The longest Thanksgiving losing streak for Dallas was four, coming from 1986-89 ahead of their early 90s golden era.

5. The “Curse of the Visiting Underdog”

While the Cowboys have been stronger on Thanksgiving, they were also victims of two of the biggest turkey day upsets.

In 2019, the Bills defeated the Cowboys 26-15 despite being a seven-point underdog. Two years later, the Raiders found themselves listed as a touchdown underdog as well, but pulled off a 36-33 victory in Dallas.

The Lions have only lost once on Thanksgiving as a favorite of a touchdown or more, but that might just be because the Lions spent several years never being favored by a touchdown or more.

That one loss did feel like there was a Thanksgiving curse, however, as in 2023 they were amid a franchise resurgence and favored by 8.5 points against the Packers. They lost that game 29-22, extending that second losing streak to seven games.

Two other teams have lost as big home favorites on Thanksgiving, as the NFL has expanded the day.

The Baltimore Ravens lost 32-14 against the Bengals in 2025, as 8-point favorites, while the Packers lost 17-13 against the Bears in 2015 as 7.5-point favorites.

When NFL odds are available for this year’s games, it’s doubtful the Bears (at Lions), Eagles (at Cowboys), and Chiefs (at Bills) will find themselves as massive road underdogs. If they do, though, defying NFL public betting trends and taking the underdog could prove lucrative.