Nick Mangold vs the Spread Take IV: Getting Back to the Fundamentals in Week 5

• Nick Mangold is stuck in a nasty slump with his picks, losing three in a row heading into Week 5
• The former Jets center is 1-3 with his weekly picks (-2.67 units) and 5-3 on his MNF props (+1.61 units)
• See his pick for Week 5 of the 2019 NFL season here

Heading into Week 4, I was riding a two-week losing streak. SBD’s Editor-in-Chief, Matt McEwan, took me through a lot of sports betting psychology in hopes of helping me work my way out of it, but more importantly not overreacting to it.

Unfortunately, that streak has been extended to three weeks now, after the Baltimore Ravens were upset by the Cleveland Browns at home.

When Matt and I chatted earlier this week, he wanted to know what I would have done as a player to snap out of a funk. I told him the best thing was always to get back to the fundamentals.

So instead of diving deeper into the psychology of sports betting this week, I’m focusing on the great sports betting tools SBD makes available to their readers.

Mangold’s Week 5 Pick

In looking to SBD’s score predictor, which has proven extremely accurate since being rolled out in 2018, it highlights the New England vs Washington game as having the biggest margin of victory. (You can access all of SBD’s odds and stats pages through their NFL odds.)

It’s calling for a 39.7-3.7 victory for the Pats, a 36-point MOV.

Patriots vs Redskins Odds

With the Patriots only laying 15 in Washington, that leaves me plenty of wiggle room with what our score predictor is spitting out – I’d cover the spread by 21 points if it nails it.

According to our sports betting data tool, SBD Sharp, the Patriots are just 2-2 against the spread this season. The two losses have come in back-to-back weeks, with New England coming a point shy of covering against Buffalo last week.

Washington QB Colt McCoy will start Sunday vs. New England.

— Adam Schefter (@AdamSchefter) October 4, 2019

But this Washington team is rapidly spiraling out of control. Since playing Philadelphia tight in Week 1, the one game they covered the spread in this season, things have just been getting worse by the week.

Although I do believe Colt McCoy is probably the best option for Washington under center right now, he’s not enough to make up for 21 points against a very good New England defense.