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Opening 2024 NFL Draft Odds Favor Caleb Williams at -550 as Number 1 Pick

George Nassios

by George Nassios in NFL Football

Updated Apr 28, 2023 · 12:38 PM PDT

Trojans quarterback Caleb Williams (13) in action during the game between the USC Trojans and the Tulane Green Wave
Jan 2, 2023; Arlington, Texas, USA; USC Trojans quarterback Caleb Williams (13) in action during the game between the USC Trojans and the Tulane Green Wave in the 2023 Cotton Bowl at AT&T Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jerome Miron-USA TODAY Sports
  • USC quarterback Caleb Williams is a huge -550 opening-line favorite to be taken 1st overall in the opening 2024 NFL Draft odds
  • Betting odds fall off dramatically after Williams, with UNC pivot Drake Maye next up at +600
  • For all the possible contenders to be selected first and 2024 NFL Draft odds, read more below

With the first round of the 2023 NFL Draft behind us, there’s no better time than now to look forward to next year’s draft class with one player labeled as a can’t miss No. 1 pick. That would be reigning Heisman Trophy winner, USC’s quarterback Caleb Williams as the top favorite in the 2024 NFL Draft odds.

Expect quarterbacks to dominate the first few picks against next season, after three of the top four players selected in this year’s draft were QBs topped by first overall pick, Alabama’s Bryce Young.

2024 NFL Odds To Be Drafted 1st Overall

Player-Position (School) Odds
Caleb Willams-QB (USC) -550
Drake Maye-QB (North Carolina) +600
Marvin Harrison Jr.-WR (Ohio State) +2000
Joe Alt-OT (Notre Dame) +2500
Olumuyiwa Fashanu-OT (Penn State) +2500
Kool-Aid McKinstry-CB (Alabama) +3000
Michael Hall Jr.-DT (Ohio State) +3000
Dallas Turner-DE (Alabama) +3500
Jared Verse-DE (Florida State) +3500
K.J. Jefferson-QB (Arkansas) +4000
Michael Penix Jr.-QB (Washington) +5000
Quinn Ewers-QB (Texas) +5000
Jayden Daniels-QB (LSU) +6000
Shedeur Sanders-QB (Colorado) +6000
Spencer Rattler-QB (South Carolina) +6000
Grayson McCall-QB (Coastal Carolina) +8000
J.J. McCarthy-QB (Michigan) +8000
Emeka Egbuka-WR (Ohio State) +8000
Bo Nix-QB (Oregon) +8000
Jeremiah Trotter Jr.-LB (Clemson) +10000
Jack Sawyer-DE (Ohio State) +10000
J.T. Tuimoloau-DE (Ohio State) +10000
Brock Bowers-TE (Georgia) +10000

Currently, the highly touted Williams is a a huge betting favorite in the 2024 NFL Draft odds at -550 with North Carolina signal caller, Drake Maye garnering the next shortest odds at +600. Odds as of April 28th at DraftKings Sportsbook.

The first round of the 2024 NFL Draft is scheduled for April 25, 2023 in Detroit. Event festivities will be held around Campus Martius Park and Hart Plaza and will once again be broadcast by ESPN.

Caleb Williams Hands Down Favorite In 2024 NFL Draft Odds

How good is USC QB Caleb Williams? So good, that the overwhelming sentiment from scouts is that he would’ve been drafted first overall this season had he been eligible. The 2022 Heisman Trophy threw for 42 touchdowns and just five interceptions in his first season in Los Angeles.

Williams will joins a long list of Heisman Trophy winners who had a chance to repeat. Only Ohio State’s Archie Griffin, in 1974 and 1975, won the award multiple times. The track record of past winners indicates Williams’ odds of going back-to-back aren’t high, but he’s still widely expected to be the No. 1 overall pick in the 2024 draft.

He is the definition of the prototypical modern day QB every team in the NFL is looking for. Standing 6’1 and weighing in at 215 with yet another season at the collegiate level to go, there isn’t much to critique.

Although Williams lost wideout Jordan Addison, who was selected 23rd overall by the Vikings, coach Lincoln Riley will make sure his quarterback has a ton of weapons once again. With an electrifying offense and improving defense behind the No. 8 recruiting class and one of the best transfer classes in the country, Williams and his squad will be a force to be reckoned with next year, which should only enhance his status.

Other Candidates To Go Number 1 In 2024 NFL Draft

It’s a huge falloff in the 2024 NFL Draft odds of who else may go first overall after Williams. The strongest challenger at the QB position is North Carolina’s Drake Maye.

Playing at a school known more for basketball, Maye is somewhat underrated, but caught the attention of scouts and general managers this past season. While he faded a bit down the stretch, his overall numbers were outstanding, completing 66.2% of his throws for 4,321 yards, 38 touchdowns, and seven interceptions.

The curiosity for the QB grew so much during last season, that UNC coach Mack Brown said bigger programs were trying to convince Maye to transfer. This is all an indication of how big the spotlight will be on Maye in his final collegiate season.

For the shortest odds at a position other than the men taking the snaps, we look at Marvin Harrison Jr. who owns the third shortest odds to go first overall, next to the two aforementioned play callers. An electric wide receiver, the Buckeyes star is more than just a familiar name who has the talent in his bloodlines.

He’s a 6’4, 205 pound weapon who makes separating look easy, and his ability to convert as a catcher is elite. Most feel he would’ve been a top five pick in this year’s draft which didn’t see a receiver go until his former teammate at Ohio State, Jaxon Smith-Njigba got chosen at number 24.

The true sophomore finished with the fourth-most receptions and yards in a single season by an Ohio State wide receiver. He also tied David Boston for the second-most receiving touchdowns (14) in a season throughout Ohio State’s illustrious history.

Best Bet To Go No. 1 In 2024 NFL Draft

Despite all of Harrison’s accomplishments and accolades, only two wide receivers, Irving Fryar and Keyshawn Johnson, have been selected first overall in the modern era. It’s a quarterback league and with the caliber of players available at the pivot, it’s a longshot for the Buckeyes receiver to go number one next year.

Although the odds of Williams going first overall at -550 aren’t really enticing, this is really a can’t miss bet. When asked for comparisons, the name most mentioned is Patrick Mahomes, so take that as food for thought.

The only way we see him not going first overall is if he suffers a devastating injury and there’s no way you should bet on that. Pick Williams to go number one in the 2024 NFL Draft before the odds get any shorter.

Pick: Caleb Williams, USC (-550)


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