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Opening Odds to Be First Overall Pick in 2020 NFL Draft: Tua Tagovailoa Listed as Favorite

Ryan Bolta

by Ryan Bolta in NFL Football

Updated Apr 3, 2020 · 12:37 PM PDT

Tua Tagovailoa Alabama QB
Tua Tagovailoa will return to the Alabama Crimson Tide for the 2019 College Football season. Photo by @RyanCFowler (Twitter)
  • Tua Tagovailoa finished second in Heisman Trophy voting this year
  • Justin Herbert returned to Oregon for his senior season and has great size at 6’6″ and 233 pounds
  • Four of the last five players to be selected first overall played the QB position

Who will be chosen first in the 2020 NFL Draft? The odds are out, and Alabama Crimson Tide Quarterback Tua Tagovailoa is the early front runner.

2020 NFL Draft Odds

Who Will Be Selected 1st at the 2020 NFL Draft? Odds
Tua Tagovailoa (Alabama) +250
Justin Herbert (Oregon) +350
Jake Fromm (Georgia) +400
Chase Young (Ohio State) +700
Derrick Brown (Auburn) +700
Jerry Jeudy (Alabama) +700

*Odds taken 04/30/19

This isn’t a hot take, but I like a quarterback to be taken with the first overall pick in 2020. Four of the last five years a QB has been the first player off the board with Heisman Trophy winner Kyler Murray being the most recent when he was taken by the Arizona Cardinals. Next year shouldn’t be any different, but for my money the value doesn’t sit with the favorite on the board.

Ducks QB Herbert Every Scouts’ Dream

Marcus Mariota won the Heisman Trophy back in 2014 and the Oregon Ducks didn’t need to wait long for their next elite level quarterback. Justin Herbert joined the team in 2016 and returns for a fourth season as the team’s starting QB in 2019. He has thrown for 63 touchdowns and only 17 interceptions in three seasons while compiling completion percentages of 59.4%, 67.5%, and 63.5%.

Herbert is listed a 6’6″ and 233 pounds. He’s a scout’s dream with his size and should be rewarded for returning to Oregon for his senior season. Expect him to rack up wild offensive numbers and not only contend for the Heisman but the first overall pick. QB needy teams always exist in the NFL and it would be really tough to pass up a talent like Herbert who also has elite measurables. Expect him to be the first player off the board next year.

Alabama QB’s Have Poor NFL Track Record

Crimson Tide QB’s all tend to have one thing in common – they put up big numbers on a team that is much better than any opponent they face. Nick Saban has created a monster at Alabama which is great for winning championships but not all that helpful when judging QB success. Throwing touchdowns to first round picks while being protected by elite offensive lines doesn’t always show how good a player will be when they don’t have that big advantage.

Three Alabama quarterbacks have been drafted in the past 15 years and none have had exceptional careers. Brodie Croyle back in 2006, Greg McIlroy in 2011, and AJ McCarron in 2014. That’s not to say Tagovailoa can’t have success, but it will definitely give scouts reason to pause. The fact he’s 6’1″ and doesn’t have the prototypical size of Herbert either will likely leave him as the second QB taken on draft day.

Pick: Justin Herbert (+350)

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