Public Says Patriots’ NFL-High 2018 Projected Win Total Isn’t High Enough
- The Patriots opened with the highest win total projection for the 2018 NFL season
- Bettors have made it clear 11 wins wasn’t high enough for the Pats
- New England has won 11+ games each year since 2009
Love’em or hate’em, the New England Patriots know how to win.
New England is coming off a 13-win season in 2017, where they made their second-straight Super Bowl appearance, and third in four years. Tom Brady and company have made seven AFC Championship games in a row, and won no fewer than 12 games since 2009.
But when it came to setting the Pats’ win total for 2018, 11 did seem like a good number. The hectic off-season in New England that saw the team lose many key members of their roster and coaching staff, along with the rumors of discontent that continue to swirl, seemed to be signaling the beginning of the end to the Patriots dynasty. The public wasn’t buying it, however.
Patriots 2018 Projected Win Total
| Opening 2018 Win Total | Odds | Current 2018 Win Total | Odds | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sportsbook 1 | 11 | -135o/+105u | 11 | -155o/+125u |
| Sportsbook 2 | 10.5 | -200o/+170u | 11 | -135o/+115u |
| Sportsbook 3 | 11 | -135o/+105u | 11.5 | -120o/-110u |
Public Betting the OVER on Patriots 2018 Win Total
While some sportsbooks have stuck with 11 wins and are just offering shorter odds for the OVER than when they opened, the money has pushed the totals up by half a win each.
Despite a soon-to-be 41-year-old quarterback, a tight end who may (or may not) be more interested in dirt biking, and a big question at left tackle, people are buying the Pats’ two decades of success.
So what are they seeing?
Patriots’ Personnel Issues Aren’t as Bad as They Seem
| Patriots 2018 Key Additions | Patriots 2018 Key Departures |
|---|---|
| Isaiah Wynn (OL) | Nate Solder (OL) |
| Sony Michel (RB) | Dion Lewis (RB) |
| Jason McCourty (CB) | Malcolm Butler (CB) |
| Jordan Matthews (WR) | Danny Amendola (WR) |
| Adrian Clayborn (DE) | James Harrison (LB) |
It was a classic Belichick move when they let left tackle Nate Solder walk to the New York Giants. There was no way New England was going to match that contract and potentially hamstring their future.
Instead they held their ground, and selected Isaiah Wynn out of Georgia. Despite his smaller stature, there are plenty who believe you can pencil Wynn in as the long-term solution at left tackle for New England.
Pats had a lot of success with Matt Light and he was not a typical left tackle in terms of height. Its balance, feet and length that matters most and Wynn has those qualities.
— Michael Lombardi (@mlombardiNFL) April 27, 2018
Even if he’s bumped inside, Trent Brown could fill in for Solder.
And they continued to plug holes in a Patriot-like way through the 2018 NFL Draft and free agency. Sony Michel at 31st overall (and Rex Burkhead) will replace Dion Lewis. Duke Dawson won’t fill Malcolm Butler’s shoes, but the rookie could man the slot, with Jason McCourty inheriting Butler’s old role opposite Stephon Gilmore.
The Patriots also addressed their pass rush (Adrian Clayborn) and run defense (Danny Shelton) in under-the-radar ways.
Ever-Evolving Picture at Receiver
Bigger questions face Brady and his pass catchers.
Both Danny Amendola and Brandin Cooks are gone. While this has some worried, Brady has done more with less. Someone among Jordan Matthews, Cordarrelle Patterson, Kenny Britt, and Phil Dorsett will step up to take some of Cooks’ targets, and will likely fit in the offense a little better.
Julian Edelman’s return helps offset the loss of Amendola. In the four games Edelman is slated to miss due to suspension, Braxton Berrios may get a chance to work with Brady.
Locks: Julian Edelman (won't count against initial 53-man roster due to four-game NFL suspension), Chris Hogan, Jordan Matthews, Cordarrelle Patterson
On the bubble: Malcolm Mitchell, Kenny Britt, Phillip Dorsett, Riley McCarron, Braxton Berrios
— Boston Sports News (@BostonSprtsNews) July 19, 2018
Gronk is…Gronk. Rob Gronkowski will be (health-permitting) his usual dominant self now that he’s re-committed to football. There may be a question of depth behind him, but New England has figured things out on the fly before.
Patriots’ 2018 Schedule
The biggest reason for the Patriots’ win totals rising isn’t who they play. It’s where they play them.
New England gets Deshaun Watson and the Houston Texans Week 1. Watson was almost too much to handle last season, but will he be rusty coming off a torn ACL?
While they’ve historically had issues with the Kansas City Chiefs, those have mostly come in Kansas City. This year the Chiefs are visiting Foxborough. Same with the Packers and Vikings. Both could have been favored if the games were on their turf.
The hardest road games the Patriots will face will be Week 2 in Jacksonville, Week 14 in Miami (historically a tough place to play for them), and Week 15 at Pittsburgh.
Patriots Win Total Betting Advice
New England went 6-2 at home last year and 7-1 on the road. In the previous three years, their home records were 6-2, 7-1, and 7-1. A similar mark has them halfway more than halfway to their 11 projected wins in 2018.
| Source | Prediction |
|---|---|
| Mike Reiss (ESPN) | 11-5 |
| Pete Prisco (CBS) | 13-3 |
| USA Today | 11-5 |
| Patriots Wire | 12-4 |
Even if they drop two of their tougher games against the Vikings, Packers, Chiefs, or Texans they’re still staring at a home slate that includes Indianapolis, Miami, New York, and Buffalo.
Going 6-2 at home and 6-2 on a road schedule that includes three divisional games and trips to Jacksonville, Detroit, Chicago and Pittsburgh is very makeable.
Ahead of training camp, and barring any major injuries, an 11+ win season for the Patriots seems in the cards.
It’s business as usual in Foxborough.
Bryan has spent the last decade working in the sports industry. From the sidelines in the OHL and Rugby League to behind the scenes at TSN, Bryan has a wealth of experience with a soft spot for props and parlays.
