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Opening Spread in Chiefs vs Patriots Favors New England by 2.5 in Week 14

Tom Brady in a toque
Will Tom Brady and the New England Patriots win and cover versus the Kansas City Chiefs in Week 14? Photo by Keith Allison (Flickr)
  • The New England Patriots are 2-2 in their last four games after losing to the Houston Texans on Sunday.
  • The Patriots are averaging just 18.0 points per game over their last four contests.
  • The Kansas City Chiefs are 7-1 when they score 25 points or more and are 1-3 when they score 24 or less.

The Kansas City Chiefs and New England Patriots will square off in an important clash in Week 14. While the Patriots are well ahead of the Chiefs in the standings, these are still viewed as two of the top teams in the conference. New England opened as 2.5-point favorites, and the line briefly went down to -2, before returning to -2.5. Which way will it move by kickoff?

Kansas City Chiefs vs New England Patriots Odds

Team Spread Moneyline Total
Kansas City Chiefs +2.5 (-110) +115 Over 48.0 (-105)
New England Patriots -2.5 (-110) -135 Under 48.0 (-115)

Odds taken Dec. 1

Patriots Look Awful In Loss To Texans

The Patriots started the season 8-0 but are just 2-2 after their loss at the Houston Texans on Sunday. It was a particularly ugly loss for New England as their offense – along with quarterback Tom Brady – looked awful. Their offense has completely hit the skids over the last four weeks, struggling to get anything going.

The Patriots were averaging just 16.7 points per game heading into Sunday’s affair with Houston and scored just nine points in the first three quarters. They did collect some garbage time yards and points to make things interesting but for the most part, they were muzzled.

Chiefs Impress In Dominant Win Over Raiders

The Oakland Raiders-Kansas City Chiefs matchup was billed as a showdown for first place in the AFC West but the Chiefs proved that they’re in a league of their own. They stomped Oakland 40-9 in a game where their much-maligned defense impressed just as much as their offense.

The Chiefs kept the Raiders off the scoreboard in a number of spots, forcing three turnovers while returning one for a touchdown. Oakland scored on just one of their three red zone visits. Meanwhile, the Chiefs offense was efficient, putting up plenty of points out of just 259 total yards.

Which Way Will The Line Move?

We’ve already seen a little bit of action on the Chiefs to briefly push them down from +2.5 to +2, and I’m expecting to see more of that. Bettors are going to overvalue what we’ve seen this week and put money on the Chiefs thinking that this week’s trends will continue.

The Chiefs are coming off what was one of their best efforts of the year while the Patriots are coming off one of their worst – one that played out in front of a national audience in prime time. Those memories are going to be a factor here.

Expect to hear questions about Tom Brady and the Patriots offense all week long. The media and fans will be discussing whether this team still has it or if Brady is washed up. That entire narrative should push this line more in the direction of a PICK rather than Patriots -3 by the time the game kicks off.

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