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The Patriots are NOT Super Bowl 53 Favorites for the First Time in 2018

Eric Rosales

by Eric Rosales in NFL Football

Updated Jan 6, 2023 · 6:11 AM UTC

Tom Brady throwing
Tom Brady and the Patriots host Aaron Rodgers and the Packers in Week 9. (Photo by Keith Allison (Flickr)
  • Patriots no longer betting favorites for Super Bowl 53
  • NFC powerhouse Rams move into top ranking
  • Are there other teams worth investing in?

Don’t look now, but there’s a new hombre listed as the favorite to take Super Bowl 53.

Average Odds to win Super Bowl 53

After a business-as-usual win over the Houston Texans to start the season, the Patriots wilted in the 100-degree heat in a rematch of the AFC Championship against Jacksonville.

Vegas has taken notice.

In this town, luck can change that quickly.

This is officially the furthest the Patriots have been from that familiar perch atop the Super Bowl 53 odds, and there still may be some sliding to go.

If New England stumbles any more, not only will the front-running Rams create some separation, but surging teams could pass them, including an AFC West squad looking like a juggernaut right now.

Let’s unwrap the latest odds:

Super Bowl 53 Odds

Team Odds to win Super Bowl 53
Los Angeles Rams +600
New England Patriots +650
Jacksonville Jaguars +1000
Minnesota Vikings +1000
Kansas City Chiefs +1400
Atlanta Falcons +1400

*Odds taken September 18th. Follow the link in the table to see odds for all 32 teams.

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Are the Patriots still a good bet?

As long as the team has Tom Brady and Bill Belichick, the Pats will be in the conversation for Super Bowls. But there is work to be done.

The Jaguars exploited many Patriot weaknesses.

A fearsome pass rush coupled with aggressive cover men disrupted Tom Brady’s rhythm, and he wasn’t able to find his short routes with usual precision.

Blanketing Rob Gronkowski left Chris Hogan and a bunch of castoffs trying to make plays, with little success.

While the team waits for Julian Edelman’s return from suspension, it came as little surprise they traded for embattled but talented receiver Josh Gordon, after he’d just used up his ninth life in Cleveland.

Defensively, they could not stop the speedy Jags on shallow crossing routes, or contain them over the top. Part of that had to with an inability to pressure Jags QB Blake Bortles, who passed from absurdly clean pockets.

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Other teams have been able to do that to the Patriots before, but they literally made no adjustment to stop it all game.

But the Pats have been in early season ruts before. Trent Dilfer once buried the team … in 2014. This after a Week 4 drubbing at the hands of the Kansas City Chiefs.

Of course, Brady and the Patriots were able to cobble together some more wins, a division title, and … oh yes, a freaking Super Bowl title!

So sitting at 1-1 and rolling into Motown to face the winless Detroit Lions, there’s still plenty of time to turn things around. With the longer odds, a bet now is a great value add.

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Rams worthy of the top spot – for now

They’ve ripped apart the Raiders, and laid waste to the Cardinals, and the Rams still haven’t really found their offensive rhythm. That’s how scary good they are.

Todd Gurley has been solid and hasn’t really had a signature game yet, while Jared Goff is working to get rolling with Brandon Cooks and Robert Woods. They’re going to be just fine.

What’s frightening – and what has them ranked so high – is that suffocating defense. The Rams didn’t allow the Cardinals to cross midfield until their last possession of the game, with the outcome decided eons ago.

In the second half against the Raiders and this game against Arizona, the Rams D has allowed zero points, and a measly 11 first downs on 16 possessions. And they haven’t hit their full stride yet either.

It’s hard not to imagine them ascending all the way to the title game.

Patriots vs Rams Statistical Comparison

1-1 Record 2-0
23.5 (T-13th) PPG 33.5 (5th)
345.5 (20th) YPG 398.5 (7th)
102.0 (18th) Rushing YPG 115.0 (13th)
243.5 (18th) Passing YPG 283.5 (10th)
25.5 (20th) PPG Allowed  6.5 (1st)
403.0 (28th) YPG Allowed 266.0 (3rd)
135.5 (27th) Rushing YPG Allowed 74.5 (5th)
267.5 (23rd) Passing YPG Allowed 191.5 (6th)
0 (15th) Turnover Differential +3 (2nd)

Vikings, Chiefs climbing the Super Bowl 53 ranks fast

Outside the Rams and Patriots, the Vikings appear to be the most complete team to challenge in the NFC.

Minnesota (+1000 average odds) is a work in progress, but Kirk Cousins showed he has the ability to shoot it out with the best of them. They have the talent and roster to claim that top spot if they take the showdown with the Rams in Week 4 – that game is a must watch.

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And don’t sleep on the Chiefs (+1200 average odds).

Pat Mahomes is the two-week MVP, and it’s his ability that has unlocked a combination of the Greatest Show on Turf 2.0, coupled with the ’07 Patriots. They are equipped to score at will, which is good, because they will likely be outscoring their defensive woes every game this season.

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