Payton’s Plays: NFL Week 12

Ties man. I hate ties. And I don’t mean the things that go around your neck. I took the Pats (-13) at San Fran last week and the game finished 30-17. It’s better than a loss on the old pocketbook, and the Fins came through against LA, so I came out in the money at the end of the week. But I still hate pushing, especially when I’m betting against my Niners as big dogs. If they’re going to get embarrassed, I better get something out of it!

This week I’m picking games with half-point lines so there won’t be any more of this push nonsense. Unless we get some rule changes before Sunday. (Half a point for hitting the upright on an extra point?? Haha. Kickers need all the help they can get.)

A bunch of teams were hit hard by injuries on Sunday and that’s led to some juicy lines. I’m jumping on these now before they swing.

Tennessee (-3.5) at Chicago

The Bears were bad when they were healthy, and now Jay Cutler is out again. They’re down to Matt Barkley at QB. They also lost tight end Zach Miller and linebacker Leonard Floyd on Sunday. That doesn’t even scratch the surface of all their injuries and suspensions (Eddie Goldman, Alshon Jeffery, Josh Sitton, etc). They battled the Giants hard last week but they just don’t have the man-power to last 60 minutes.

That’s really bad news facing the Titans. Tennessee loves to pound the rock. DeMarco Murray is one of the best backs in the league and his o-line is playing pretty good in front of him. I’ll even give QB Marcus Mariota some love, even though he’s a Duck. (Go Beavers!) Mariota’s really upped his game lately, working some magic with Delanie Walker.

The Titans aren’t as bad on the road as they used to be. They beat Detroit and Miami on the road already this year and battled San Diego and Houston pretty close. I’m gonna back them to get by the banged-up Bears.

Pick: Tennessee (-3.5)

Seattle (-5) at Tampa Bay

As a Niners fan, I’ve got my issues with the Seahawks. But you gotta ignore those sort of emotions when you’re betting on football. Seattle is going on its patented second-half surge. The last two weeks, they beat the Pats in Foxborough and them stomped on the Eagles at home. They look just as good as Dallas in the NFC now that Russell Wilson is back to being healthy. Their running backs got hit hard by injuries last week but Thomas Rawls is still holding the fort for next week.

Tampa got a nice win over KC last weekend, but this is not a good team. They’re outclassed by the Seahawks almost everywhere on the field (except offensive line). Last week’s game has some people thinking that the Bucs are a legit contender. They’re not. Don’t expect a repeat of last week when Seattle comes to town. Jameis Winston’s sure not gonna throw for 330 yards against the Seattle secondary, especially if Michael Bennett is back in the lineup. (Either way, their defensive front is gonna be in Winston’s face all day.)

On offense Seattle is gonna roll. Doug Baldwin is doing his thing again in the second half of the season. Jimmy Graham looks like the guy that used to rack up the stats in New Orleans. Wilson has been playing at an MVP level the last two weeks.

These early east coast start times are tough for west coast teams, but Tampa is so bad at home (1-4 on the year). Gimme the Seahawks. Oh, and happy Thanksgiving.

Pick: Seattle (-5).