Payton’s Plays: NFL Week 13
I had another ho-hum 1-1 record last week. That’s two in a row. And that’s not good enough. I want wins.
If you bet on the NFL I know you hate those 3.5-point lines as much as I do. So many games are decided by a field goal. Well they used to be, anyway. Now that hardly anyone can bang through their extra points with any consistency, you’re seeing a lot more strange margins: 16-12, 22-16, 14-5? What is this, lacrosse?
That’s a philosophical question for another day. My point is that the decline of kickers and the weird scorelines make me less nervous about taking 3.5-point lines. I’m more confident taking the better team in a 3.5-point game than I used to be. Wouldn’t ya know it, that’s just what I’m doing this week.
Kansas City at Atlanta (-3.5)
The Falcons just trucked Arizona at home. They’re staying put to host the Chiefs, who are coming off an emotional win in Denver. This game is going to look a lot like that Atl/Ari game. The Chiefs don’t have the horses to keep up with Atlanta, and they don’t have the defense to stop Matt Ryan. (It’s solid, but not better than Arizona’s.) Marcus Peters is a good corner, but he doesn’t travel, so Atlanta can get Julio Jones away from him. And even if they can’t, they’ve got other weapons now. Taylor Gabriel is straight speed!
Atlanta is down two of its best defenders (Des Trufant and Adrian Clayborn), but KC hasn’t been able to find much of a pass game all year and the run game is trending down. Andy Reid’s safe approach on offense is going to backfire against this Falcon team.
Pick: Atlanta (-3.5)
Tampa Bay at San Diego (-3.5)
Those were two nice wins in a row for Tampa over Seattle and KC. Big ups to Famous Jameis. He’s balling out. But don’t jump on Tampa as an NFC powerhouse. They’re not gonna be this good consistently. Winston goes back and forth between great games and bad ones. When he puts together a couple solid months, then I’ll start buying in.
But Jameis is only half the story here. The Bucs held the Seahawks to five points because they got after Russell Wilson all day. They went through Seattle’s o-line like it was a kindergarten class playing red rover, which they basically are. San Diego’s big-men up front aren’t the best in the league, don’t get me wrong. But they’ll better than what Seattle had to offer, and Philip Rivers knows how to get the ball out quick anyway. The Chargers are unlucky to not be in a better spot in the standings right now, but they’re still in the playoff hunt at 5-6 and will be playing desperate, knowing they probably need to win out to make the postseason.
Pick: San Diego (-3.5)
