Payton’s Plays – NFL Week 3

Welcome back to Payton’s Plays! This week, Gary is eschewing the spread and focusing on moneyline value in Week 3 NFL action. What teams does the Glove love this time around? Take it away, Gary … 

The spread got me last week, y’all. I knew the Giants were going to beat the Saints. I sure didn’t think New Orleans would keep the G-Men’s offense outta the endzone. If they played 100 times that would happen once. Who Dat got lucky.

The Chiefs just let me down.

But I’m not gonna waste your time with excuses. In betting, like in sports, you gotta have a short memory and move on. You can’t let emotions get in the way. Keep it straight-up analytical.

Speaking of straight-up, that’s how I’m betting this week.  Sometimes, I just don’t wanna have to worry about my team easing off in garbage time, and we got some good options in the moneyline in Week 3.

Minnesota at Carolina (-320)

Pick: Carolina 

The Vikings got a real good win last week over my boy Aaron Rodgers. Sam Bradford finally played like a no. 1 overall pick. But everyone’s overreacting to one game and Adrian Peterson got hurt. Bradford and his one receiver aren’t on Carolina’s level.

Jonathan Stewart is out for the Panthers, too, but Cam Newton is going to get it done at home on Sunday. Minny has a great D but Carolina can run the ball against anybody because Cam is a beast. Kelvin Benjamin is beasting himself in the passing game.

Carolina hasn’t lost at home since November 2014. They’re big favorites and -320 isn’t going to get you a huge payout, but we’ll still be a little better off on Monday morning. Know what I’m sayin?

San Francisco (+350) at Seattle

Pick: San Fran

I’ma balance out my picks with an upset special, San Fran over Seattle. This just ain’t the same Seattle team we’re used to seeing. Their offensive line might be even worse than last year. Russell Wilson is the man, don’t get me wrong, but he’s trying to play through a high-ankle sprain. You ever tried to do that? Not fun. San Fran’s defense has some players up front. Navorro Bowman is still one of the best in the biz. Wilson’s gonna be runnin (slowly) for his life. The Seahawks are gonna have the same problems scoring that they did against the Fins and the Rams.

Are the Niners gonna be able to score? The Hawks D is legit, no argument there. Chip Kelly always finds a way to put up some points, though. And when a Beaver gives props to a Duck, you know it’s true. I’m not saying this one is a lock, but the Niners are barking like live dogs. +350 is real nice value. Seattle almost got picked off by Miami at home in Week 1, after all.

Photo credit: Inside Sports (via Vimeo).