Payton’s Plays – NFL Week 5

You win some you lose some. Alls y’all can do is learn from your mistakes and move forward. That’s just as true in betting as it is in balling.

I’ll cop to it. I tried to take a couple cake games last week and got burned. Julio Jones is the undisputed man right now and Carolina is not what I thought they were. This week I’m gonna up the degree of difficulty to earn back some trust. Here’s how I’m playing Week 5.

Six-point teaser: Pittsburgh (-7 vs NYJ); Green Bay (-7.5 vs NYG)

[Editor’s note: in a “two-team teaser,” the bettor picks two teams to win against the spread, but gets to “tease” the line down closer to even. In this case, Gary is teasing the lines down by six points, meaning Pittsburgh is -1 and Green Bay is -1.5 for the purposes of his bet. If both teams win by two or more points, the bet will cash.]

Both Big Apple teams need a win this week in the worst way. Neither one is gonna get it.

Eli Manning hasn’t won a big game since my former teammate Antoine Walker hung’em up back in 2012. Since then, the G-Men are an ugly 13-21 straight up on the road. Green Bay’s the better team all around, and there’s the added bonus that their wide receivers aren’t crying on the sidelines. Only reason I’m not taking them straight against the spread is their weak pass D. They let the Lions claw back after racing out to a 31-3 lead, and I don’t want to get back-doored again. So tease the line down to 1.5 and you’re laughing.

Pittsburgh is the perfect team to pair them with. The Jets are also in a do-or-die game, but that doesn’t worry me too much: Ryan Fitzpatrick hasn’t won a big game ever. New York’s D doesn’t have it anymore, not enough to stop the triple B’s anyways. A little history for y’all: since 2013, the Steelers are 15-5 straight-up when they’re favored at home. And since we teased that line down to one, all you gotta do is win by a measly two, baby.

Pick: Pittsburgh (-1) and Green Bay (-1.5)

Tennessee at Miami (-3.5)

Jump on this one while you can. The game might move to Tennessee because of Hurricane Matthew. That would move the line in the Titans’ favor. Even if it stays in Miami, it’s going to be played in brutal weather. That means a low-scoring game, so getting more than a field goal is a great start, regardless of the matchup.

But I like the matchup for Tennessee, too. They want to run the ball and DeMarco Murray looks like the guy that dominated the league a few years ago. The Dolphins barely have a run game at all. Ryan Tannehill can string together some nice throws on any given Sunday, but he’s crazy inconsistent and the wet weather will make passing crazy hard.

If you take the Titans at +3.5, you’re either going to get them as a home underdog or in a rain storm where their good ground game and solid defense will keep it tight.

Pick: Tennessee (+3.5)