Philadelphia Eagles vs New England Patriots Odds, Picks & Predictions
- Philadelphia is a 4-point favorite in the Eagles vs Patriots odds on Sunday
- Jalen Hurts is 3-9 against the spread as a road favorite in his NFL career
- Check out the latest Eagles vs Patriots odds, picks and predictions below
Year 24 of the Bill Belichick era in New England kicks off on Sunday, as the Patriots host the Eagles. Massachusetts sports betting officially launched earlier this year, which means this is the first time New England residents have been able to wager legally on their team in their home state. Let’s break down our Week 1 Eagles vs Patriots picks here.
Pats fans will have the added incentive of backing their team as a rare home underdog in Week 1, as online sportsbooks opened Philly as the short road chalk in the NFL odds.
Let’s further analyze the Eagles vs Patriots odds and provide you our prediction for Sunday’s NFL Week 1 battle.
Eagles vs Patriots Odds
| Team | Spread | Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Philadelphia Eagles | +4 (-110) | -198 | O 45 (-110) |
| New England Patriots | -4 (-110) | +164 | U 45 (-110) |
The Eagles are currently listed as a 4-point favorite, in a contest with a total of 45. Philadelphia had been bet up as high as -5 just a few weeks ago, but New England money brought the number down to where it lies.
At their current price, Philadelphia is drawing 66% of the spread tickets per the NFL public betting trends, despite a horrible recent track record as road favorites. More on that later.
Odds as of September 9 at BetMGM. Get a BetMGM promo code to bet on the NFL this weekend.
Philadelphia Eagles Betting Analysis
The Eagles enter 2023 with a very similar roster that earned them a Super Bowl berth seven months ago. Sure they lost names like Miles Sanders, Javon Hargrave and C.J. Gardner-Johnson, but they did well to replace those players with comparable talent in free agency.
Philadelphia also resigned plenty of their own leaders from 2022, and rewarded MVP runner-up Jalen Hurts with a $255 million contract. Hurts threw for 3,701 yards and 22 TD in 2022, while rushing for 13 additional scores. The Eagles ranked third in both total offense and scoring, and expectations are high for his offense yet again in 2023.
Jalen Hurts 2023 hype video. 👀
I am ready to run through a brick wall! 🔥pic.twitter.com/INeqZcUyIT
— Word On The Birds (@WordOnTheBirds) September 9, 2023
Perhaps the biggest change to this team is at the coordinator positions. Both Shane Steichen and Jonathan Gannon earned head coaching jobs after last year’s success, leaving Philly with new coordinators on both sides of the ball.
It will be fascinating to see how the Eagles offense runs with a new play caller, and whether or not they continue to lean as heavily on Hurts’ legs. Hurts rushed 165 times during last year’s regular season, and you have to expect a slightly more cautious approach this year, especially early in the campaign.
Hurts and Co. will be tested on Sunday, as the matchup versus the Patriots’ defense is no joke. That side of the ball is New England’s bread and butter, and giving Belichick months of time to game plan should lead to tough sledding for the Philly attack.
New England Patriots Betting Analysis
The Pats will count on their defense to keep this game close given their lack of talent on offense and some injury concerns. Mac Jones and New England were the seventh-lowest-scoring team in 2023, and his top two receivers are dealing with injuries.
Report: New #Patriots WR JuJu Smith Schuster's knee reportedly 'Could explode at any point' and is a 'Mess' according to @AlbertBreer
The Pats signed JuJu to a 3-year $33 million contract over keeping Jakobi Meyers, who signed a very similar contract with the #Raiders… pic.twitter.com/rxRcUYyuqc
— Dov Kleiman (@NFL_DovKleiman) September 4, 2023
JuJu Smith-Schuster’s knee is reportedly a mess, while DeVante Parker is questionable with his own knee issues. That could force New England and new OC Bill O’Brien into a more run-heavy approach, which wouldn’t be the worst thing. Targeting the Pats’ running back could be an approqch in the Eagles vs Patriots props. Philly’s defensive strengths lie in their pass rush and secondary, and if there was one vulnerable area for the unit in 2022 it was in rush defense.
The Eagles ranked 29th in EPA (expected points added) versus the run last season, while the Pats were fourth. New England was also third in EPA against the pass, and bolstered their secondary by taking corner Christian Gonzalez 17th overall.
Eagles vs Patriots Prediction
On paper, this looks like a lay-up for the Eagles in the Eagles vs Patriots picks. Philly is ranked 12 spots higher per overall DVOA heading into the season, and just posted a 16-2 record with Hurts under center in 2022.
The fact the Eagles are only laying 4 points in the Eagles vs Patriots odds and should send warning bells off in your head, especially when they’re drawing the bulk of the spread tickets. That means sharps are likely betting the other side, and there’s a few reasons why.
Eagles vs Patriots 2023 DVOA Projections
| Team | Total DVOA | OFF DVOA | DEF DVOA |
|---|---|---|---|
| Philadelphia Eagles | 6 | 4 | 9 |
| New England Patriots | 18 | 20 | 12 |
First, give Belichick this long to scheme and he’s going to come up with something juicy. Second, Hurts has performed poorly against the number throughout his career as a visitor. He’s just 3-9 ATS as a road favorite, and 6-13 against the spread as a visitor overall.
Furthermore, teams that lose the Super Bowl have struggled out of the gate the following season. The previous Super Bowl loser is 4-19 ATS in Week 1 since 2000, including 0-3 over the last three years.
Eagles vs Patriots Picks: New England Patriots +4 (-110)
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As SBD's resident Swiss Army Knife, Chris covers virtually every sport including NFL, PGA, NBA, MLB, NCAAB, NCAAF and the Olympics. A true grinder, he'd rather pick off small edges in the player props market than swing for the fences with a 5-leg parlay.
