NFL Picks Against the Spread for Wildcard Weekend

• The NFL Playoff bracket is set
• Six games are played on Wildcard Weekend spanning from Saturday, January 11 to Monday, January 13
• See below for SBD’s best NFL picks against the spread for the first round of the NFL Playoffs

We have made it to Wildcard Weekend. The plan for betting this weekend is simple: just pick the winner. It is easier said than done, but the winner in the Wildcard Round has gone 26-5-1 (83.9%) against the spread since 2018.

Keep reading for all my NFL picks against the spread for Wildcard Weekend.

Wildcard Weekend Picks Against the Spread

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Odds as of Friday, January 10 at ESPN BET. Be sure to claim the best ESPN BET promo code before placing your NFL Playoff bets.

ATS Pick #1: Bills -8.5 vs Broncos

The Broncos have had a great season and made the playoffs in Bo Nix’s rookie season. Their reward for clinching a playoff spot is a trip to Buffalo to take on the 2-seed. Since the NFL Playoffs expanded to 14 teams, 7-seeds have struggled in the Wildcard Round. Five of the eight 7-seeds have lost by at least 12 points. Yes, the Packers upset the Cowboys last season, but I do not trust the Broncos as much as Green Bay’s team last season.

The NFL odds list the Bills as 8.5-point favorites. The line has moved from Bills -7.5 to -8.5 vs the Broncos and the line could continue to move as we get closer to kickoff. If the game hits Bills -9, favorites of nine points or more are 13-3 against the spread in the NFL Playoffs. It is also worth noting that the Broncos have only won two games against current playoff teams and one of them was last week vs Kansas City’s backups. All signs are pointing to the Bills in this one.

Buffalo’s defense has been a problem for them this season, but they are getting healthier in the secondary. They still struggle to stop the running game, but luckily for them, the Broncos do not pose much of a threat on the ground. The Broncos defense, on the other hand, is one of the top units in the NFL, but they have been exposed by some good offenses at times this season. The Bills spread the ball around, so Pat Surtain should have less of an effect on this game. The Bills do not have a true No. 1 wide receiver for him to lock down. I trust Buffalo to score enough points in this one to win and cover the 8.5 points.

• NFL Wildcard Weekend Pick: Bills -8.5 (-110) 

ATS Pick #2: Eagles -5 vs Packers

Despite some uncertainty, both starting quarterbacks should be good to go in this game. Both Jalen Hurts and Jordan Love were full participants in practice. Plus, the betting line shows that both quarterbacks should play. The line opened at Eagles -3.5 but then moved to -4.5 and is now at -5.

The Eagles are a complete team, and I believe Saquon Barkley and the running game. The Packers have been good against the run this season, so even if they stack the box and can limit Saquon, I like Philadelphia’s matchups on the outside with AJ Brown and Devonta Smith especially with Jaire Alexander moving to the IR. The Packers will also be without Quay Walker and Christian Watson which will impact them.

Since 2018, the winner in the Wildcard Round is 26-5-1 (83.9%) against the spread 👀

Moral of the story: pick whoever you think will win the game to cover the spread this weekend ✍️ pic.twitter.com/NKjLwh1SrQ

— SportsBettingDime (@SBD) January 10, 2025

Philadelphia has an elite defense that is especially good against the pass. The Packers have had success leaning on Josh Jacobs and the ground game this season, but I believe the Eagles front seven will be able to limit Jacobs. This Week 1 rematch has a chance of being a great game, but the Eagles should win and cover the spread.

• NFL Wildcard Weekend Pick: Eagles -5 (-110) 

ATS Pick #3: Buccaneers -3 vs Commanders

The Buccaneers are heading into this game red hot. Tampa Bay has won six of their last seven games and needed a win last week to get into the playoffs. Even though it was closer than many anticipated, they got the job done against the Saints and escaped with a win. I like that they essentially already played a playoff game before this game.

This should be a high-scoring game, but I give the edge to the Buccaneers when it comes to the spread. With Bucky Irving and Rachaad White, Tampa Bay’s rushing attack has been elite to end the season. Washington’s defense has struggled against the run, which should continue in this game. The Buccaneers defense has not been anything special, but I trust them more than the Commanders.

The rushing game edge is a big one, especially in the playoffs. Even in a potentially high-scoring game, the Bucs will be able to control the game and limit Jayden Daniels’s opportunities. Baker Mayfield and the Buccaneers also have a lot more playoff experience than Jayden Daniels and the Commanders. I am comfortable laying three points with the Buccaneers at home.

• NFL Wildcard Weekend Pick: Buccaneers -3 (-110)