Post-NFL Draft Super Bowl 53 Odds: Chargers Emerge as Contenders

• How did the 2018 NFL Draft change each team’s odds to win Super Bowl 53?
• Who were the biggest winners of the draft?

The 2018 NFL Draft got started on Thursday, April 26th with Baker Mayfield’s name being called first by the Cleveland Browns and wrapped up on Saturday, April 28th with Washington making Trey Quinn this year’s Mr. Irrelevant.

Of course, the true winners and losers from the draft won’t be determined until we actually get to see how each teams’ new players perform on the field and we get a sense of the height of their ceiling. But we can at least look at how the 256 players selected influenced each team’s odds to win Super Bowl 53.

Popular 2018 NFL Draft Winners

Of the three teams most commonly referred to as “2018 draft winners”, only the Los Angeles Chargers saw their odds to win Super Bowl 53 get shorter – or in this case, their implied probability improve.

Green Bay Packers

In his first NFL Draft as a GM, Brian Gutekunst was a magician for the Packers. First, he fleeced the Saints in the first-round by moving back from no. 14 to no. 27, while also receiving a 2018 fifth-round pick and New Orleans’ 2019 first-round selection. Gutekunst then moved back up to no. 18, only having to part ways with the 27th-overall pick and a third and sixth-rounder – they received Seattle’s seventh-round pick in 2018, as well.

So basically, the Packers moved back four spots in the first-round to turn a 2018 third-round pick into a 2019 first-rounder, and still got the player they wanted in Jaire Alexander.

Packers’ 2018 Draft

Gutekunst continued addressing Green Bay’s secondary needs with Josh Jackson in the second round. The additions of Alexander, Jackson, and Tramon Williams (free agency) will surely bolster what was the 23rd-ranked pass defense in 2017.

Add two-time MVP Aaron Rodgers, who only played in seven games last season, back under center, and this has the potential to be the best Packers team we have seen since 2010.

One sportsbook is awfully bullish on the Packers, offering them at +750 to win Super Bowl 53. If you’re looking to bet Green Bay to win Super Bowl 53, you can get them at +1601 elsewhere.

Los Angeles Chargers

Chargers GM Tom Telesco didn’t have to make any moves in the first-round for his team to be considered draft winners, as he just simply got lucky that the best safety of the class fell to him at no. 17.

The only real hole on LA’s roster was at safety, after the team decided to not bring back Tre Boston. But that hole has disappeared as Florida State standout safety Derwin James was surprisingly still available when the Chargers were put on the clock.

Chargers just got the steal of the draft in Derwin James

— Danny Kanell (@dannykanell) April 27, 2018

James is an elite athlete who has shown to be a force against the run and has the ability to cover man-to-man. He is going to add yet another special talent to the third-ranked scoring defense from a year ago.

Chargers’ 2018 Draft

The Chargers’ average odds to win Super Bowl 53 went from +2800 on April 25th to +2600 on April 30th, overtaking the Chiefs for the shortest odds in the AFC West. The move also results in LA now possessing the fifth-shortest odds to win the Super Bowl among AFC teams.

The shortest odds for LA are +2065, while the longest on Philip Rivers and Co. are +3000.

New York Giants

Some may not agree with taking a running back second-overall, but Dave Gettleman told us all along that he wanted the best player available. And it’s awfully tough to argue that Saquon Barkley wasn’t at least one of the best players available in the 2018 NFL Draft.

Where Gettleman really scored big was in the second round when he selected UTEP guard Will Hernandez. The 22-year-old is a monster who will immediately help out the Giants’ 26th-ranked rushing attack from 2017.

Giants’ 2018 Draft

With a respectable offense in place, expect a much better showing from the Giants defense, as well. The unit suffered from being on the field so often, and were consistently worn down as the game went on – a result of New York ranking 31st in average time per drive.

In spite of their positive draft, the Giants remain a bit of a long-shot to win Super Bowl 53, possessing average odds of +4700.

Popular 2018 NFL Draft Losers

As was the case with the winners, the odds movement at online betting sites doesn’t match the teams who the public has labelled draft losers. Only the Seattle Seahawks saw their Super Bowl 53 odds get longer – or in this case, their implied probability decrease.

Seattle Seahawks

When will the Seattle Seahawks learn that you need an offensive line to win football games? After not receiving much compensation for moving from no. 18 to no. 27, Seahawks GM Jon Schneider followed by taking running back Rashaad Penny in the first round.

Yeah, Penny led the nation in rushing yards last season with 2,027 on 7.4 yards per tote, but it’s going to be awfully tough replicating that kind of production when he’s meeting a defender in the backfield on nearly every play.

Seahawks’ 2018 Draft

Continuing to ignore their biggest flaw has resulted in Russell Wilson taking too many hits and their offense being pretty mediocre over the last two seasons. The pick also left many scratching their heads because both Sony Michel and Derrius Guice were still on the board.

The Seahawks hate protecting Russell Wilson so Rashaad Penny makes sense.

— Trevor Sikkema (@TampaBayTre) April 27, 2018

Seattle saw their average odds to win Super Bowl 53 go from +3100 before the draft to +3600 afterwards. Even sportsbooks know that failing to add any help up front is going to result in Aaron Donald and Ndamukong Suh feasting on Seattle’s backfield twice in 2018.

If you do want to bet the Seahawks, one sportsbook has them at +5400.

Oakland Raiders

It’s safe to say Jon Gruden was a little rusty after spending nine years away from coaching. He and Reggie McKenzie got fleeced in moving down from no. 10 to no. 15, only receiving additional third and fifth-round picks in the 2018 Draft.

On top of that, they also used the 15th-overall selection on a pretty raw tackle in Kolton Miller, who many did not have coming off the board in the first round. As much as I liked the Arden Key (third-round) and Maurice Hurst (fifth-round) picks, Oakland blew it in the first round.

Raiders’ 2018 Draft

Oakland’s average odds to win Super Bowl 53 got a touch shorter, going from +2900 before the draft to +2800 after the draft.

Pittsburgh Steelers

Another major head-scratcher from the first-round came when the Steelers took safety Terrell Edmunds with the 28th pick.

First of all, Pittsburgh’s pass defense was already a strength (fifth against the pass in 2017). Second, the team already shored up their secondary by signing Morgan Burnett in free agency. And finally, Edmunds was commonly the fourth-ranked safety in the 2018 class, and some experts were giving him a third-round grade.

I can appreciate Pittsburgh looking after their future in the third-round, but it’s hard to see how the Steelers got any better this season after the 2018 NFL Draft.

Steelers’ 2018 Draft

In spite of the public’s negative assessment of Pittsburgh’s draft, the back-to-back AFC North champs saw their average odds to win Super Bowl 53 go from +1000 to +980.

To see how the 2018 NFL Draft influenced the odds of all 32 teams to win the Super Bowl, check out our Super Bowl 53 Odds Tracker.