NFL Public Betting & Money Percentages for Falcons vs Panthers Thursday Night Football
- The public is all over Atlanta in the Falcons vs Panthers public betting splits ahead of Thursday Night Football in Week 10
- 81% of the spread wagers and 81% of the spread money is backing the Falcons as 2.5-point road favorites
- Below you’ll find a comprehensive breakdown of the Falcons vs Panthers public betting splits before TNF
Nothing says Thursday Night Football in November quite like a Falcons (4-5, 1-3 away) versus Panthers (2-7, 2-3 home) matchup. These two division rivals put up 71 combined points in their first meeting two weeks ago, but bettors are not expecting a repeat performance in the NFL public betting trends.
As we’ll explore, the under is currently garnering the majority of the money wagered on the total, as nasty weather is expected tonight. As far as the spread is concerned, early money was on Carolina when the line opened Atlanta favored -3, but ever since it dropped to -2.5 the action has been almost exclusively on the Falcons.
Falcons vs Panthers ATS Betting Splits
As of early Thursday afternoon, 81% of the spread bets and 81% of the spread handle is on the dirty birds. Atlanta is one of just seven teams with six victories against the spread so far this season and is 5-1 ATS in their last six contests in Carolina.
They’re 3-1 against the spread on the road this season, but before you go racing to the window to bet on the Falcons consider the following. Marcus Mariota is 3-8 ATS in his career as a road favorite, and Atlanta failed to cover in its only game where they were laying points in 2022.
That contest just happened to be against the Panthers in Week 8, who would have pulled off the outright upset if DJ Moore hadn’t taken an unnecessary unsportsmanlike conduct penalty after a heroic Hail Mary TD, or if Eddy Pineiro hadn’t blown two game-winning kicks.
Carolina is just 3-6 against the spread this season, but two of those covers have come in the last three games. As noted in the Falcons vs Panthers picks, Carolina has covered in three of the past five meetings between these divisional rivals.
Atlanta vs Carolina Total Betting Splits
As mentioned earlier, the under is getting the most action when it comes to the total. 62% of all money wagered is on under 41.5, and that money is coming from only 48% of the over/under bets. That means big-money bettors are backing a low-scoring affair, and there are plenty of trends to support that.
The @Panthers game Thursday night weather:
On and off rain with winds 20-30 mph. Bring the rain gear! #KeepPouning pic.twitter.com/KGVxf2JMlV— Brad Panovich (@wxbrad) November 9, 2022
For starters, it’s going to be rainy and windy tonight in Carolina. Charlotte, NC was under a wind advisory this afternoon, with gusts reaching 40 mph. Come game time, those gusts are expected to fall to 20 mph, but it’s been proven that winds north of 15 mph significantly affect passing production and kicking efficiency, which reduces scoring. As a result, passing game unders are showing tons of value in the Falcons vs Panthers player props.
Atlanta and Carolina are already two of the league’s bottom-eight teams when it comes to total offense, and both have seen a large percentage of their games fall short of the total lately. The under is 4-2 in the Falcons’ last six outings and 5-3 in the Panthers’ past eight games.
Since the beginning of last season, outdoor divisional games have gone under at a 63% clip (56-33). The under has been hitting even more frequently in that scenario in 2022, as the under is 20-6 in outdoor divisional matchups (77%).
Falcons vs Panthers Moneyline Betting Splits
The moneyline betting splits aren’t quite as lopsided as the spread, but it’s close. 73% of the moneyline tickets and 70% of the handle are currently on Atlanta.
The Falcons can move into sole possession of first in the NFC South with a win tonight, and DVOA has them ranked 16 spots higher than Carolina heading into Week 10.
Atlanta is dealing with more serious injury concerns in the Falcons vs Panthers injury report, as number one corner AJ Terrell is out. Atlanta grades out 29th against the pass per DVOA, so Terrell’s loss would be huge if Carolina was fit to take advantage of it. Unfortunately, the Panthers boast the league’s worst passing game grade per DVOA.
After getting benched last week, PJ Walker is back under center but will likely be on a short leash. Walker threw for over 300 yards in the dome against the Falcons two weeks ago but is 25th among QBs in passing grade per Pro Football Focus. He’s 1-3 this season as a starter and boasts an underwhelming 57% career completion rate in 14 games.
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As SBD's resident Swiss Army Knife, Chris covers virtually every sport including NFL, PGA, NBA, MLB, NCAAB, NCAAF and the Olympics. A true grinder, he'd rather pick off small edges in the player props market than swing for the fences with a 5-leg parlay.
