Ravens vs Falcons Picks, Predictions and Prop Bets to Target for SNF
By Chris Amberley in NFL News
Published:
- The Ravens and Falcons square off tonight on Sunday Night Football
- I’m predicting a big game for Zay Flowers, even with Lamar Jackson ruled out
- See the Ravens vs Falcons picks, predictions and prop bets to target for SNF, below
The Atlanta Falcons host the Baltimore Ravens at Mercedes-Benz Stadium on Sunday Night Football at 8:20 PM ET. Broadcasting live on NBC and Peacock, this matchup offers near-endless options for NFL player prop bettors.
With star quarterback Lamar Jackson officially ruled out due to an ankle injury, Tyler Huntley steps under center for the Ravens. This absence dramatically alters the offensive outlook for Baltimore.
Navigating these shifting dynamics requires a data-driven approach to uncover the best betting value on the board. Let’s break down the Ravens vs Falcons picks, predictions and prop bets to target for SNF, below.
Ravens vs Falcons Player Props
Huntley’s passing yards prop bumped up slightly from its 177.5 opening to 179.5, while his passing touchdown line remains flat at 0.5. On the other side, Michael Penix Jr has seen his numbers stay steady across the board since opening, sitting at 212.5 passing yards and 1.5 passing touchdowns. Bettors looking at NFL passing yards props will want to monitor these numbers closely until kickoff.
Derrick Henry saw his rushing numbers dip from their opening marks. His rushing attempts moved from 20.5 down to 19.5, and his rushing yards dropped from 85.5 to 81.5. On the Atlanta side, Drake London’s reception line shifted down from 6.5 to 5.5, with his receiving yards ticking down slightly to 78.5 from 79.5. Mark Andrews had his receiving yards adjust upward from an opening of 31.5 to 33.5.
Baltimore vs Atlanta Anytime TD Odds
Bijan Robinson saw his anytime touchdown odds shorten from -200 to -228, while his first touchdown odds tightened from +260 to +240. London also experienced movement, with his anytime touchdown odds shifting from +170 to +117. Henry’s anytime touchdown odds drifted from -205 to -151 across traditional markets, though sharper value exists on alternate exchanges for those shopping NFL TD scorer odds.
BAL vs ATL Player Prop Picks and Predictions
Pick 1: Zay Flowers 70+ Receiving Yards (+108/48¢ at Kalshi)
Targeting Zay Flowers to eclipse 70 receiving yards is an absolute misprice given his dominant early-season usage and Atlanta’s defensive vulnerabilities. Flowers has surpassed this mark in every game he has suited up for in 2026, exploding for 150 yards against Indianapolis in Week 1, 84 yards against Dallas in Week 3, and 118 yards on 8 catches (10 targets) against Tennessee in Week 4. That puts him at an eye-popping 117.3 receiving yards per game on 7.3 targets and 6.0 receptions per contest.
Even with Huntley stepping in for an injured Jackson in Week 4, Flowers remained the undisputed focal point of Baltimore’s aerial attack, commanding a 38.5% target share and running crisp routes across every depth tier.
The matchup could not be more ideal. Atlanta’s defense boasts the NFL’s stingiest run-stopping unit (allowing a league-low 48.3 rushing yards per game), which will force Baltimore to lean heavily on its passing game.
The Falcons rank 30th in pass defense, surrendering 276.5 passing yards per game. Atlanta has yielded 280+ passing yards in three consecutive outings (287 to Carolina, 312 to Green Bay, and 286 to New Orleans).
With the Falcons stacking the box to contain Baltimore’s heavy ground front, Flowers will face single coverage on intermediate routes and perimeter crossers all afternoon. He has topped 80 yards in 100% of his 2026 appearances, making plus-money on a 70-yard threshold exceptional value. New users can claim the Kalshi promo code for a bonus to use on this game.
Pick 2: Kyle Pitts Over 24.5 Receiving Yards (+105 at BetMGM)
This 24.5-yard number sits at a bargain basement level, offering a prime buy-low spot on Kyle Pitts as Atlanta’s offense reaches full throttle under Penix Jr. After quiet Week 1 and Week 2 games, Pitts showed an immediate spark once Penix opened up downfield concepts, peaking with a season-best 3 catches for 47 yards against the Saints in Week 4 while running routes on over 75% of dropbacks.
In an Atlanta offense that has poured in 80 points across its last two games (35 vs. Green Bay and 45 vs. New Orleans), Pitts’ role as a seam stretcher in the intermediate passing game is trending sharply upward.
Baltimore’s defense presents an inviting schematic funnel for opposing tight ends. While the Ravens clamp down near the boundary and limit explosive rushers, their defense ranks in the bottom half of the league against the pass (229.0 yards allowed per game) and consistently concedes soft spots between the numbers to accommodate their two-high safety shells.
Pitts’ vertical profile means he can eclipse a 24.5-yard threshold on a single catch; he already logged grabs of 20+ yards in Week 4 alone. At plus-money this line is the sharpest tight end prop on the board. Grab the BetMGM promo code to tail this wager.
Ravens vs Falcons Prop Bets to Target
Pick 3: Michael Penix Jr 220+ Passing Yards (-104/51% at Novig)
Since taking over the starting reins in Week 3, Penix has transformed Atlanta’s offense into an aggressive, vertical machine. In his start this season against the Packers, the southpaw went 18-of-25 for 256 yards and a touchdown, averaging a clean 10.2 yards per attempt.
He followed that up in Week 4 by completing 15-of-20 passes for 223 yards and another score against New Orleans. That gives him 479 passing yards across his two starts—an average of 239.5 yards per game while completing 73.3% of his throws—clearing the 200-yard benchmark by 20+ yards in both outings.
Game flow also strongly favors Penix’s volume. While Atlanta’s rushing attack with Bijan Robinson and Brian Robinson has been productive, Baltimore’s defensive front is built to stuff interior runs, allowing just 100 yards per game on the ground.
When facing Baltimore, opponents routinely abandon early-down power runs and transition into spread passing concepts. Dallas (276 yards) and New Orleans (252 yards) both comfortably cleared 250 passing yards against this Ravens secondary over the past three weeks. With Atlanta operating in the Mercedes-Benz Stadium dome where Penix averages 10.6 yards per completion, hitting 200 passing yards represents a remarkably stable floor.
Pick 4: Derrick Henry Anytime Touchdown (-127/56¢ at Kalshi)
Henry finding the end zone is the single most bankable prop in football right now. Through four weeks of the 2026 campaign, “The King” has scored a rushing touchdown in all four games, racking up 7 total rushing touchdowns (3 vs. Colts, 1 vs. Saints, 2 vs. Cowboys, and 1 vs. Titans). He is averaging 22.3 carries and 93.5 rushing yards per game, handling an overwhelming 90%+ share of Baltimore’s goal-line work.
Whenever Baltimore enters the red zone, the offensive play sheet funnels directly into Henry’s hands, where he regularly converts goal-to-go situations this season.
Even though Atlanta’s rush defense has suppressed yardage totals between the 20s, Baltimore’s offense leads the NFL in red-zone scoring efficiency, averaging 29 points per game. Considering Henry has found paydirt in every game this season and already has multiple multi-touchdown performances, laying -127 for him to score at least once is a standout play. Before making any wager tonight, scan the best prediction market apps to find the top price.
Sports Writer
As SBD's resident Swiss Army Knife, Chris covers virtually every sport including NFL, PGA, NBA, MLB, NCAAB, NCAAF and the Olympics. A true grinder, he'd rather pick off small edges in the player props market than swing for the fences with a 5-leg parlay.
