Ravens’ Super Bowl & Division Odds Fade BADLY After Lamar Jackson Thumb Injury

The Baltimore Ravens’ championship aspirations absorbed a devastating blow in Week 8. Following a lopsided 36-10 loss to the Buffalo Bills, the franchise confirmed that two-time MVP quarterback Lamar Jackson suffered a severe thumb injury requiring surgery. With Jackson now in danger of missing the remainder of the 2026 season, prediction markets responded with swift, unforgiving adjustments. 

The table below lists the latest Super Bowl odds for all 32 teams at prediction market Kalshi as of 4:49 pm ET, Nov 1.

Updated Super Bowl Odds (Week 8)

Baltimore’s Super Bowl odds plummeted, fading from 6¢ down to just 2¢. San Francisco continues to sit atop the board at 16¢ (+525), followed by the Buffalo team that just shredded the Ravens (13¢ / +669)

Ravens AFC North Odds Take Huge Hit

In the NFL Division odds, Baltimore was still trading at 23¢ (+335) heading into Week 8. But the loss to Buffalo, coupled with the injury to Jackson and victories by the Pittsburgh Steelers (6-2) and Cincinnati Bengals (5-2), led to the Ravens’ divisional odds cratering almost as badly as their Super Bowl odds. Baltimore is now trading at just 14¢, and is likely still on the decline as markets react.

Cincinnati is the odds-on favorite at 53¢ with Pittsburgh second at 30¢.

Jackson’s value to Baltimore cannot be overstated. Everything the Ravens construct offensively flows through his unique dual-threat playmaking ability. His absence strips Baltimore of its offensive engine and places an overwhelming burden on backup quarterback play and the defense.

Without Jackson manipulating linebackers in option looks and extending passing plays outside the pocket, opposing defenses can aggressively load the box against Derrick Henry and the ground attack.

QB2 Tyler Huntley Injured As Well

The catastrophic injury could not come at a worse juncture for Baltimore. The team’s backup QB, Tyler Huntley – who had been serviceable in relief of Jackson this season while the latter missed three games due to a separate injury – also left the Week 8 loss to Buffalo with a toe injury. Huntley’s knock thrust undrafted rookie Joe Fagnano under center for the remainder of the game.

Though Fagnano was borderline electric in preseason, his performance against Buffalo left a lot to be desired. The Maine/UConn product went just 10-of-21 for 91 yards, no touchdowns, one INT, and three sacks. With no real threat of a passing game, Baltimore managed just 76 rush yards on the day.

The extent of Huntley’s injury is still unknown. Whether it’s Huntley or Fagnano the rest of the way, though, the Ravens appear to be dead-in-the-water. The statistical disparity for Baltimore with and without Jackson in the lineup is staggering. Since he took over as the franchise starter in Week 11 of the 2018 season, the Ravens have compiled a 79-33 record (.705 win percentage) in the 112 regular-season games he has started. With Jackson under center, Baltimore’s offense operates as one of the most explosive units in football, averaging 28.2 points per game and 382.6 total yards per game, including 175.6 rushing yards per game and 207.0 net passing yards per contest.

When Jackson is sidelined, Baltimore turns into an entirely different, punchless team. In the 20 regular-season games the Ravens have played without Jackson starting over that exact span, they have plummeted to a 7-13 record (.350 win percentage). The scoring output craters by more than 10 points per game, dropping to just 17.7 PPG, while total offense shrinks to 312.9 total yards per game and net passing production falls off a cliff to 158.4 yards per game.

Without Jackson’s generational playmaking and run-pass friction to keep secondaries and linebackers honest, Baltimore’s entire offensive baseline fundamentally collapses.