- Week 8 kicks off with Washington vs Minnesota on Thursday Night Football (Oct. 24)
- Our TNF props were 2-1 last week for +0.76 units (+1.24 units for the season)
- Minnesota has a history of bullying bad teams like Washington at home
Another winning Thursday Night Football props card in Week 7 has us at +1.24 units for the season, and we’re looking to carry that momentum over to the Redskins clash with the Vikings in Week 8 (Oct. 24th, 8:25 PM ET).
Throughout the Mike Zimmer era, Minnesota has feasted on bad teams at home, and with 1-6 Washington in town, the Vikings are poised for another massive output.
Prop #1: Vikings Over/Under 3.5 Touchdowns
All odds taken Oct. 23.
Minnesota’s splits against bad defenses compared to good defenses is quite drastic. They average just 11 points per game this season against top-13 ProFootballFocus-graded defenses, but 34 points per game versus bottom-15 units.
— Minnesota Vikings (@Vikings) October 20, 2019
The Redskins are currently the 16th-ranked defense, but if we take away last week’s mud bowl result, they allow an average of 28 points per game. They’ve surrendered 30 or more points in four of seven games this season, and three of the four opponents who hung 30+ on them all rate worse than the Vikings offensively.
Pick: Vikings Over 3.5 touchdowns (-117)
Risk: 1 unit to win 0.85 units
Prop #2: Kirk Cousins Over/Under 241.5 Passing Yards
Revenge will be on Kirk Cousins’ mind every time he drops back to pass on Thursday Night. The Redskins didn’t consider him worthy enough to be paid like a big-time starter, so you know there’s nothing Cousins would like more than to stick it to his former team.
With 337 passing yards and a 141.4 passer rating today, @Vikings QB @KirkCousins8 became the first quarterback in @NFL history to have at least 300 passing yards and a passer rating of 130-or-higher in three consecutive games. #NFL100 #MINvsDET pic.twitter.com/ICiYtKO7wr
— NFL345 (@NFL345) October 20, 2019
After a slow start to the season, he’s thrown for at least 300 yards in three straight games and leads the NFL in passer rating and yards per attempt. Washington is PFF’s 14th-worst coverage unit, and ranks 20th in sack rate and 23rd in QB hit rate. Cousins will have all day to rack up a ton of yards.
Pick: Cousins Over 241.5 passing yards (-113)
Risk: 2 units to win 1.66 units
Prop #3: Dalvin Cook Over/Under 3.5 Receptions
After target totals of 5, 8 and 6 in Weeks 4 to 6, Cook has seen just two passes thrown his way in each of the last two games, and his receiving skills likely won’t be in demand Thursday Night. Cook leads the NFL in rushing yards this season and has historically performed much better on the ground at home. He averages seven more rushing yards per game at home than on the road, and his yards per carry climbs to nearly 6.0 in games that the Vikings win by double digits.
Dalvin Cook is a cheat code
No one better at creating a whole lot of something out of nothing pic.twitter.com/Xe8MgmidVc
— Nick Olson (@NickOlsonNFL) October 21, 2019
He’s in line for a huge game as a 16-point home favorite, but he’ll likely do most of his damage on the ground, while Cousins exposes the Washington defense with Minny’s receivers and tight ends.
Pick: Cook Under 3.5 receptions (-113)
Risk: 1 unit to win 0.88 units
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