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Stephon Gilmore Still Favored to Win NFL DPOY, Donald’s Odds Improve to +400

Eric Rosales

by Eric Rosales in NFL Football

Updated Mar 29, 2020 · 4:19 PM PDT

Stephon Gilmore on the field
New England Patriots cornerback Stephon Gilmore is the betting favorite for NFL Defensive Player of the Year. Photo from @NBCSBoston (Twitter).
  • Patriots’ corner Stephen Gilmore is the betting favorite for Defensive Player of the Year
  • Rams’ Aaron Donald in close pursuit, with 49ers rookie Nick Bosa in position to surprise
  • Read below for the odds, analysis and our pick for NFL DPOY

Like many of his opponents on the field, it appears Patriots’ cornerback Stephon Gilmore is also squeezing the competition off it, as he closes in on the NFL Defensive Player of the Year award.

In the latest edition of the NFL DPOY odds, Gilmore’s odds have shortened down to a season-low +300, as he’s looking to join Deion Sanders (1994) and Rod Woodson (2009) as the only defensive backs to take home the honor in the last 25 years.

NFL Defensive Player of the Year Odds

Player Pos Team Odds
Stephon Gilmore CB NE +300
Aaron Donald DT LAR +400
Nick Bosa EDGE SF +800
TJ Watt EDGE PIT +800
Minkah Fitzpatrick DB PIT +1000
Khalil Mack EDGE CHI +1400
Shaquil Barrett EDGE TB +1400
Chandler Jones EDGE ARI +1600
Jamie Collins LB NE +1600
Joey Bosa EDGE LAC +1800

*Odds taken December 4

Hot on his heels is Rams all-world defensive tackle Aaron Donald, who himself has climbed from +1000 odds on Nov. 13, down to +400. As we head into Week 14 action, is it a two-horse race, or is there a long shot in the field you should be targeting?

Gilmore Dominant All Season

Gilmore has become the most important piece for the league’s most impressive defense in the NFL this year. With his ability to neutralize some of the best receivers in football, the rest of the defense can wreak havoc across the field, at every level, knowing there’s little chance of getting burned for their actions.

Considered the best cover corner in football, Gilmore has the stats to back it up. He has four interceptions on the year and 13 passes defensed, to go along with 30 solo tackles and one touchdown.

Perhaps the best way to look at the work he’s put in, however, is that he’s outscored his opposition on the year, surrendering zero touchdown passes to his covers on the season. Gilmore has never given up more than five receptions or 65 yards receiving in a single game. Better yet, he’s pitched a shutout four times – most notably cooling down Cowboys’ wideout Amari Cooper.

Receiving Stats vs Gilmore this Season

Week Opponent Player Receptions-Yards-Touchdowns
1 Steelers JuJu Smith-Schuster  4-43-0
2 Dolphins DeVante Parker 0-0-0
3 Jets Robby Anderson 2-11-0
4 Bills John Brown 4-68-0
5 Redskins Terry McLaurin 3-51-0
6 Giants Golden Tate  0-0-0
7 Jets Robby Anderson (second meeting) 0-0-0
8 Browns Odell Beckham 4-49-0
9 Ravens Marquise Brown 2-22-0
10 BYE N/A N/A
11 Eagles Nelson Agholor 1-5-0
12 Cowboys Amari Cooper 0-0-0
13 Texans DeAndre Hopkins 5-64-0

*figures courtesy Pro Football Focus

Even after Deshaun Watson torched the Patriots’ defense with a three-TD performance in a 28-22 Texans win on Sunday Night, New England’s defense still boasts an incredible 8-20 touchdown pass-against-to-interecption ratio. While there are many talented players that are contributing to the Patriots’ historic-level defense (including the McCourtey brothers, Jamie Collins, Kyle Van Noy and Donta Hightower, to name a few), Gilmore is the front man of the band.

Donald a Victim of Own Success

It’s virtually impossible to quantify just how incredible Aaron Donald is – and he’s the current two-time Defensive Player of the Year. Last year might have been the closest we’d ever get to measuring his greatness, because his numbers were insane. Donald led the league with 20.5 sacks from his defensive tackle position, while racking up 41 QB hits, and leading the NFL with 25 tackles for loss.

This season, with the 2018 Super Bowl-finalist Rams in danger of missing the playoffs, Donald is still having what many defensive players would consider a career year, but far from his world-shattering 2018 season. He still leads the league with 17 tackles for loss, but his 9.5 sacks and 18 QB hits are figures that have been cut in half. Basically, offenses have decided that double-teaming Donald is a must.

Dark Horses and the Best Bet

There are four weeks left in the season, and a lot can still be determined. While I wouldn’t blame you for taking Donald, or an outside flier on electric DB Minkah Fitzpatrick (+1000) who’s breathed life into the Steelers’ defense and positioned them for a playoff berth, the two best defenses in the NFL right now are New England and San Francisco, and it’s not exactly that close.

It makes sense that if both teams continue down that route, someone from one of those teams should take home the honor. Here’s the thing: if Nick Bosa can move up from 15th on the sack list (currently at 8.0), and San Francisco closes out strong – think top seed in the NFC – there’s an outside shot that the shoo-in for defensive rookie of the year could complete the DPOY double.

He’ll get every chance to showcase: three of the 49ers’ final four games are against the Saints, Rams and Seahawks.

Gilmore’s last real shot at sealing this award is likely this weekend against the Chiefs. He’ll be matched up with Tyreek Hill, Travis Kelce and Sammy Watkinss/Mecole Hardman at key points in the game with reigning NFL MVP Patrick Mahomes not afraid to go after anyone. If Gilmore pitches another gem, the Pats finish with Cincinnati, Buffalo and Miami.

Barring a collapse, I think New England’s defense comes extremely close to setting the record for fewest points allowed in a season, and their cover corner locks down the award.

The pick: Gilmore (+300)

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