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Nick Bosa’s NFL DROY Odds Get Even Shorter After Week 12; Is There Any Reason to Bet Against Him?

Eric Rosales

by Eric Rosales in NFL Football

Updated Apr 2, 2020 · 12:04 PM PDT

Nick Bosa pointing on the field
Nick Bosa is the overwhelming favorite to take home NFL Defensive Rookie of the Year. Photo from @NBCS49ers (Twitter).
  • DROY favorite Nick Bosa’s standout effort against the Packers shortened his odds to -350
  • Bosa has helped retool a poor 49ers defense in 2018 to one of the elite ones this year
  • Read below to see if Bosa is a lock for DROY, or if there are other contenders worth watching

Spearheading another mammoth performance by the 49ers’ defense, Nick Bosa was a star on Sunday Night Football as San Francisco routed Aaron Rodgers and the Packers.

Piling up a sack, a fumble recovery, and generally thrashing any game plan Green Bay had in mind is nothing new for the second overall pick in last year’s NFL draft. Already the overwhelming favorite to take home the NFL Defensive Rookie of the Year award, his latest effort continued to shorten his NFL DROY odds.

2019 NFL Defensive Rookie of the Year Odds

Player Team Pos Drafted Odds
Nick Bosa SF EDGE 2nd Overall -350
Devin Bush PIT ILB 10th Overall +375
Josh Allen JAX EDGE 7th Overall +700
Brian Burns CAR EDGE 16th Overall +1400
Darnell Savage Jr GB S 21st Overall +2500
Devin White TB LB 5th Overall +3000
Ed Oliver BUF DL 9th Overall +3000
Quinnen Williams NYJ DL 3rd Overall +5000
Dexter Lawrence NYG DL 17th Overall +6000
Clelin Ferrell OAK EDGE 4th Overall +6000

Odds taken November 27.

Heading into Week 12, Bosa was already at -275 to take the trophy. Now, he’s at -350 and still pulling away. Is there any chance that this award isn’t wrapped up yet?

Bosa’s Play Not Rookie-Like

Perhaps the greatest compliment that’s been paid to Nick Bosa is that his in consideration for NFL Defensive Player of the Year. He was the arguably the best defensive player in football after picking up seven sacks in his first seven games and doing things that were above the athletic grade and knowledge of a first-year player.

While he was held without a sack for his next three games (a streak he broke against Green Bay), his play did not fall off, nor did he hit a wall. According to Pro Football Focus, Bosa’s grade through 12 weeks of his young career is 89.7. That ranks him third among all edge defenders in the NFL. He trails just TJ Watt and Khalil Mack, while grading out higher than JJ Watt and Jadeveon Clowney.

Put that to the rookie class, and Bosa’s numbers shoot to among the biggest rookie impacts all-time. In fact, in 14 years of PFF grading, only Von Miller (91.8) has a higher grade through a player’s first 12 weeks than Bosa.

Fortunate to be on a front defensive line rotation that boasts all first-round picks, it’s the rookie that’s head and shoulders above the rest. He has 54 QB pressures, over 20 clear of very talented teammate Arik Armstead in second place.

https://twitter.com/OSf49ers/status/1199040737968418817

Their ability to generate pressure out of a four-man rush has allowed ‘Frisco’s coverage to feast. A team that had just two interceptions all last season, San Fran has 11 in 11 games, while surrendering an NFL-low 136.9 yards a contest.

Allen, Bush are Big Impact Players on their Teams

There isn’t a lot to like about the disappointing Jaguars’ season, but the play of Josh Allen certainly is something to glow about. The Kentucky product has fit right into “Sacksonville”, matching Bosa’s sack total with eight, and making a name for himself on a roster that boasts Calais Campbell and Yannick Ngakoue.

He only trails Campbell for the team lead in pressures, and he’s forced a couple of fumbles along the way as well.

Bush’s case is built into more of the team framework, as Pittsburgh’s defense has carried them from a 1-4 start into the playoff mix in the AFC. His 49 solo tackles and two interceptions don’t exactly cover the scope of his capabilities.

Bush’s responsibilities include stopping the run, going sideline-to-sideline to cover tight ends, backs and receivers and putting pressure on the QB. Essentially Ryan Shazier’s replacement, Bush has helped the Steelers rediscover their defensive chops just in time to make a postseason run.

Bosa’s Storyline Too Strong to Pass Up

In any other year, Allen and Bush would be fitting winners of the DROY award. But Bosa has helped lift the 49ers to the best record in the NFL through Week 12, and he’s made highlight-reel plays along the way, and is arguably already the most important player on the 49ers. Allen may match him in sacks, but Jacksonville is off the NFL radar. And as good as Bush has been, Minkah Fitzpatrick has been the showstopper and the real force behind that resurgent Steelers’ D.

Bosa has been pegged as DROY since about Week 3, and his season could not have played out any better. Barring an injury, he’s the winning bet, and it’s not actually even close.

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