Cubs vs Pirates Expert Picks, Predictions & Splits (July 26)

• The Pirates face the Cubs today looking to avoid the three-game sweep
• I’m backing the over given the favorable matchup for the Pittsburgh bats
• See the top Cubs vs Pirates expert picks, predictions and splits for July 26th, below

The Chicago Cubs (58-45) conclude their series against the Pittsburgh Pirates (53-51) this afternoon at 1:35 PM ET at PNC Park. Chicago enters as the road underdog in the MLB odds despite dismantling the home favorites 11-0 yesterday. In that decisive victory, the offense exploded for 16 hits.

Now, Pittsburgh looks for a bounce-back performance. They will rely on offensive cornerstones like Bryan Reynolds and Nick Gonzales to ignite a lineup that was silenced yesterday. From a betting perspective, this matchup presents an intriguing spot for the home favorites trying to avenge a shutout loss. Below, you can check out my favorite Cubs vs Pirates expert picks, predictions and splits for July 26th.

Cubs vs Pirates Expert Picks and Predictions

Prediction Markets

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Kalshi

Pittsburgh to Win

54%

Over 8.5 Runs

53%

Predict

After analyzing the matchups, my primary Moneyline Pick is the Pittsburgh Pirates (54¢ on Kalshi). The starting pitching matchup heavily tilts in favor of Pittsburgh. The Pirates hand the ball to Braxton Ashcraft, who boasts a 3.95 ERA and a 1.17 WHIP across 116.1 innings. Meanwhile, the Cubs counter with Jameson Taillon, who struggles with a 5.38 ERA and a 1.32 WHIP. Kalshi’s 54¢ price offers a better payout than standard sportsbooks currently listing Pittsburgh at -125.

My Over/Under Pick is Over 8.5 runs (53¢ on Kalshi). The Over has cashed in 62.9% of Pittsburgh’s matchups this year. Taillon allows over five earned runs per nine innings, meaning the offense should find plenty of scoring opportunities. Chicago also showed their lineup has high run-scoring upside yesterday, making a high-scoring affair probable. Kalshi’s 53¢ price for the Over is a valuable discount compared to the -120 market standard. Don’t forget to claim the Kalshi referral code to score a bonus to bet on MLB.

When looking at MLB player props, my Top Player Prop is Braxton Ashcraft Over 5.5 Pitcher Strikeouts (-113 at Polymarket). Ashcraft sports an elite 10.06 K/9 rate per the MLB batter vs pitcher stats. Averaging 5.82 innings per start, his mathematical baseline puts him comfortably above six strikeouts. Backing him to eclipse this mark offers excellent betting value.

Jameson Taillon vs Braxton Ashcraft Stats

Ashcraft has put together a stellar 2026 campaign, boasting a 13-7 record across 20 starts. His 3.53 FIP suggests he has pitched even better than his traditional metrics indicate. His ability to miss bats is his greatest weapon, highlighted by a 10.06 K/9 rate. Over his previous 10 outings, he has maintained pristine control with a 2.00 BB/9.

Conversely, Taillon has had a turbulent season. Sitting at 6-8 with a 5.38 ERA, his 6.40 FIP points to vulnerability against quality contact. While his .250 opponent batting average is respectable, his 1.32 WHIP indicates that traffic on the basepaths remains a consistent issue.

Taillon has logged a 6.02 ERA over 49.1 innings in his last 10 starts. Averaging under five innings per start recently, he frequently exposes the bullpen early. Against a lineup hungry to bounce back, Taillon’s recent inability to pitch deep into games could prove costly.

Cubs vs Pirates Stats

The numbers highlight a significant offensive mismatch. Pittsburgh ranks first in the league in home batting average (.272) and first in home runs per game (5.51). Their lineup consistently hits the ball hard at PNC Park, boasting the second-best home OPS (.798).

Chicago sits 19th with a lackluster .236 road batting average and an average exit velocity that falls to the bottom half of the league. They rely heavily on taking walks rather than overwhelming opponents with sheer contact. Chicago’s tendency to swing and miss creates an ideal environment for Ashcraft’s strikeout props.

Cubs vs Pirates Odds

Odds as of July 26, 2026, from Caesars. Claim the Caesars promo code now to start betting on MLB.

Cubs vs Pirates Splits

Analyzing the MLB public betting splits reveals clear support for the home team. Pittsburgh is drawing 64.7% of the betting tickets and commanding 80.5% of the total money wagered on the moneyline. This indicates larger bankrolls are heavily backing the home side.

The total runs market displays a similar consensus. Anticipating a high-scoring affair, 68.6% of the betting tickets are backing the Over. The money percentage also favors the Over at 60.8%. Both the casual ticket counts and the heavier money percentages are unified, perfectly mirroring my predictions for Pittsburgh and the Over.