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The 4 Best Player Props to Bet in Chiefs vs Raiders on Oct 4

Michael Harrison

By Michael Harrison in NFL News

Published:


Kenneth Walker III TD celebration
Sep 14, 2026; Kansas City, Missouri, USA; Kansas City Chiefs running back Kenneth Walker III (9) celebrates after scoring a touchdown during the second half against the Denver Broncos at Arrowhead Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jay Biggerstaff-Imagn Images
  • The undefeated Chiefs and Raiders square off in a fascinating AFC West tilt Sunday afternoon
  • I’ve selected four NFL player props that I love to wager on for this grudge match
  • See the odds and picks for Chiefs vs Raiders for Week 4 NFL action

The Kansas City Chiefs (3-0) take on the Las Vegas Raiders (3-0) in a Week 4 AFC West divisional tilt Sunday at 1:25 PM PT / 4:25 PM ET on CBS at Allegiant Stadium. Prop bettors have plenty of markers to target in this afternoon affair.

The Chiefs rely on Patrick Mahomes and Kenneth Walker III, who averages 21.7 carries and 120 rushing yards per game. Meanwhile, Kirk Cousins leads the Raiders, feeding tight end Brock Bowers to the tune of ten receptions for 116 receiving yards in the tight end’s first game of the season last week. Keep reading for my Chiefs vs Raiders preview and NFL player props picks.

Top Player Prop Picks for Chiefs vs Raiders

Kenneth Walker III Over 86.5 Rushing Yards (-115, BetMGM)

Walker operates as the lead back atop the depth chart for the Chiefs, and this game environment sets up beautifully for his rushing profile. He has exceeded 86.5 rushing yards in at least five of his last seven games, dating back to last year’s postseason.

He matches up against a Raiders defense that yields 116.3 rushing yards and 316.7 total net yards per game to opposing offenses. Given his established historical baseline and a role that commands heavy backfield touches, Walker presents an incredibly reliable yardage floor.

Kirk Cousins Under 33.5 Pass Attempts (+104, Kalshi)

Prediction Markets
Cousins Attempts O/U
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Kalshi
Cousins Under 33.5 Pass Attempts
49%

Fading passing volume against this defense is a highly effective target. Opposing offenses facing the Chiefs convert on only 32.3% of their third-down opportunities.

This defensive resistance naturally suppresses the total number of offensive snaps and limits overall play volume. Historically, Cousins has failed to exceed 33.5 passing attempts in his last five contests. The combination of restricted game opportunities and his individual statistical tendency makes the under an appealing target.

Patrick Mahomes Over 234.5 Passing Yards (-115, BetMGM)

Patrick Mahomes has recovered nicely from an off-season injury to his ACL and LCL. He has exceeded 234.5 passing yards in the last two weeks, and has met that threshold in 13 of 15 career meetings vs his AFC West rivals.

Mahomes has a deep set of pass-catchers available on the depth chart to help clear this number, led by future Hall of Fame tight end Travis Kelce and Rashee Rice. With these primary targets dominating the target share, his individual track record holds strong appeal.

Kenneth Walker III Anytime Touchdown (59¢, Polymarket)

Prediction Markets
Anytime TD Pick
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Polymarket
Walker III 1+ TD
59%

Given his massive workload of 21.7 carries per game, Walker acts as the primary red zone efficiency driver for the Chiefs. When a player commands this elite level of usage, finding value on the touchdown board is essential for boosting your return.

Polymarket prices his Anytime Touchdown shares at 60 cents for “Yes,” which presents an attractive payout profile compared to traditional sportsbooks. With the Raiders yielding 316.7 total net yards per game, the Chiefs should control the field position battle, giving Walker multiple opportunities to find the end zone. That’s something he’s done on four occasions in the first three weeks of the campaign.

Michael Harrison
Michael Harrison

Sports & Entertainment Writer

Michael "Hound Dog" Harrison is well known in the sports industry as the resident statistician for the SC with Jay Onrait Show. He has worked at TSN for over 20 years, is the CEO of his "All Bets Par Off" weekly golf betting videos and his HDOG POD, along with several others.

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