NFL Odds: Where Will Romo, Cousins Land in QB Shuffle?

If there’s anything the 2016 NFL playoffs have taught us, it’s that elite quarterback play is all you need to compete for a Super Bowl. Sorry, but the Packers and Falcons are not complete teams; they are thriving on supreme play from Aaron Rodgers and Matt Ryan.

It wouldn’t be a tough sell to convince someone that Houston was one of the more complete teams to qualify for the postseason. The lone position where they were truly lacking was QB, and we saw how that went for them.

There is good news for the Texans and other quarterback-hungry franchises, though, as some prize signal-callers could be hitting the open market when the NFL calendar flips (March 9).

As of now, there is one premier quarterback set to hit free agency in 2017: Kirk Cousins. But three others may be joining him, and a fourth may be available via trade. By my count, there is anywhere between four and seven QB-needy teams. There are also a few others who wouldn’t mind an upgrade at the game’s most valuable position.

Here’s what I see playing out for the five quarterbacks who may find themselves slinging passes in a new city this September.

Kirk Cousins

As a fourth-round draft pick in 2012, Cousins was not highly-regarded entering the league. Then he became a household name during the 2015 season. The 102nd overall pick started all 16 games for Washington, setting a franchise record for passing yards in a season and leading the league in completion-percentage along the way. Oh right, Washington also won the NFC East that season.

General Manager Scot McCloughan placed the franchise tag on Cousins the following season, forcing Cousins to prove that 2015 wasn’t a fluke. Unfortunately, the 2016 season came with mixed results. Cousins shattered his franchise record for passing yards in a season, while maintaining similar numbers in every other statistic. But the team appeared to regress as the season went on, and Washington lost four of its last six to miss out on a playoff spot. In three of those final six games, Cousins had a passer rating south of 80, and questions have been raised as to whether the team can win a championship with him at the helm.

Cousins recently received high-praise from his former offensive coordinator Sean McVay, and it is very unlikely Washington allows him to walk in free agency. If Cousins plays 2017 under the franchise tag, he will make just under $24 million. The two sides will continue to work towards a long-term extension, but that may not come until 2018 when the price would be $34 million to tag Cousins for a third-straight year.

If Washington comes to the asinine conclusion that they would be better off without Cousins, he’ll be highly coveted by a number of teams. Here are the odds for where Cousins will play in 2017.

Washington: 1/9
San Francisco 49ers: 33/1
New York Jets: 50/1
Houston Texans: 50/1
FIELD: 30/1

Tony Romo

To the naked eye, trading Tony Romo seems like the most intelligent move for Jerry Jones and the Dallas Cowboys. Dak Prescott led the team to an NFC-best 13-3 regular season record. Though they ultimately fell short, he also rallied the ‘Boys back from a big deficit against the Packers in the Divisional Round of the playoffs. The rookie QB may have lost the game, but it came at the hands of Aaron Rodgers’ brilliance. Tony Romo was then and Dak Prescott is now, right?

Not exactly. First of all, there are many in the organization who believe Tony Romo would have won the Green Bay game and feel he is the better option to win now, which the team certainly appears capable of. It’s also not a bad idea to have an insurance plan should anything happen to Prescott. Second, there is a lot of guaranteed money left on Romo’s contract. If the Cowboys released or traded their all-time leader in passing yards, it would result in $19.6 million of dead cap in 2017. This means Dallas would only save $5.1 million by getting rid of him. If they cut ties post June 1, Dallas would only eat $12.7 million in 2017, while the remaining $8.9 million counted against the 2018 cap.

All of that being considered, it’s more likely than not that we will see Romo back in Dallas in 2017. It might not be as a backup, either. Of course, if Jerry does decide to part-ways with Romo (likely after June 1) there are a number of teams that would be blowing-up the veteran’s phone.

Teams who are ready to win now would covet Romo’s services. Included in that list would be the Texans and the Broncos. The Jets – just one year removed from going 10-6 – could also be in the mix.  The Texans and (especially) the Jets may have some difficulties affording the 14-year vet, but a deal could be worked out. Other franchises like Chicago and San Francisco, which are likely to draft QBs in 2017, would love to have a mentor in place for their rookies. The big question is whether Romo would want to spend his last couple years in a rebuilding situation.

Dallas Cowboys: 3/4
Houston Texans: 7/1
New York Jets: 9/1
Denver Broncos: 18/1
Chicago Bears: 22/1
San Francisco 49ers: 30/1
FIELD: 25/2

Jimmy Garoppolo

With Tom Brady suspended for the first four games of the 2016 season, the NFL got its first real look at Jimmy Garoppolo. The third-year pro performed admirably in his two starts, going 2-0 and posting a passer rating of 119.0. It hardly looked like New England was missing Brady.

But Brady isn’t done yet, and it doesn’t sound like he’s ready to hang them up anytime soon, either. Garoppolo is entering the final year of his rookie contract in 2017, and it seems smart for the Pats to trade him now before they lose him for nothing in free agency the following year. Unless they truly believe he is the heir to the throne.

While a bevy of teams would love the services of Garoppolo in 2017, especially at a cap hit of less than $1 million, only a couple will be willing to send the necessary return – reportedly a first and fourth-round pick.

That’s a steep price, but may be the best option for teams that don’t have a ton of cap space heading into next season. Houston has a little over $24 million, but some of that will go towards re-signing standout corner A.J. Bouye and safety Quintin Demps. Unfortunately, the Texans can’t cut Brock Osweiler in the offseason to alleviate cap space, as it would cost them more money to part ways than keep him on the roster. Their first-round pick is late enough (25th) that they likely wouldn’t miss out on any generational talent by trading it. Come 2018, they can rid themselves of the $72-million man without much dead cap and use the space to give Garoppolo a new contract.

The New York Jets and Buffalo Bills (should they separate from Tyrod Taylor) are in similar situations to Houston, but both possess much higher picks in the draft. If either are to send the Pats an offer, it may contain their 2018 first-rounder instead. Although, I can’t see New England wanting to give any of its divisional foes this kind of talent at quarterback.

The other team that could make a big move on Garoppolo is the Cleveland Browns, who have a ton of picks stored up. Hue Jackson’s squad possesses the first and 12th overall picks, along with two more early selections in the second-round. They could opt for more quantity, too, by trading out of the top spot. I can see them packaging some of those picks to acquire the franchise quarterback this city has been waiting for since Bernie Kosar left in 1993.

Houston Texans: 7/2
Cleveland Browns: 4/1
New England Patriots: 9/2
New York Jets: 6/1
Buffalo Bills: 8/1
FIELD: 6/1

Tyrod Taylor

Hey Buffalo, do you remember Todd Collins? How about Alex Van Pelt and Rob Johnson? Ringing any bells? No? Maybe the more recent Trent Edwards and J.P. Losman?

You get the picture. It’s no secret that the Bills haven’t had a franchise quarterback since Jim Kelly. Sure, there have been decent years with Doug Flutie, whom ownership mistreated, and Drew Bledsoe along the way, but both were nearing the end of their respective careers when they landed in Buffalo. They weren’t pieces to build around long-term.

The Bills finally have a young, promising quarterback, and ownership doesn’t want him around because he isn’t your traditional pocket passer. I’m going to be blunt here: releasing Taylor would be dumb. You know that top-ranked rushing attack the Bills possessed in 2016? That had a lot to do with Tyrod and his fleet-footedness. Instead of getting rid of him, the Bills should surround him with more weapons. Sammy Watkins is a great receiver, but missed half the season due to injury; Taylor was left throwing to Robert Woods and Marquise Goodwin for most of the year, and still put up decent numbers.

If the Bills do move on, there will be a number of teams interested in Taylor. Cleveland and San Francisco are the first two that come to mind. Hue Jackson and Kyle Shanahan would appreciate a mobile quarterback who also knows how to throw from the pocket. Acquiring Taylor would allow the teams (which possess the top two picks in the draft) to address one of the many other holes on their roster instead of drafting a QB.

Chicago also seems like a good fit, as Taylor could complete the power running game John Fox desires.

San Francisco 49ers: 4/1
Cleveland Browns: 13/3
Buffalo Bills: 9/2
Chicago Bears: 5/1
Houston Texans: 12/1
Denver Broncos: 18/1
FIELD: 13/2

Jay Cutler

Following the 2013 season, the Bears signed Jay Cutler to a massive seven-year extension worth $126.7 million. However, as Brandon Marshall put it, management was quickly feeling a strong case of buyer’s remorse. Is Jay Cutler a terrible quarterback? No. He’s a serviceable starter. But he’s not worth the money they’re paying him.

Now that basically all the guaranteed money has been paid out, the Bears could part ways with Cutler this offseason to alleviate $14 million in cap space. It’s going to happen, and there are a number of teams that would gladly bring in the 11-year vet at a reasonable price.

Cutler played some of his best football under Mike Shanahan in Denver, and his son Kyle is the likely new head coach of the 49ers. A reunion with a Shanahan could bring the best out of Cutler and allow San Francisco to take its time in finding the future at quarterback. The Jets may want to complete their reassembly of the Bears’ skill-group by reuniting Cutler with Marshall and Forte. Replacing Ryan Fitzpatrick with Cutler would give the Jets a better chance to win now while they figure out if Christian Hackenberg is an NFL quarterback.

The odd team on the list below is the Arizona Cardinals. But hear me out. Carson Palmer was not great last season and it cost the talented Cardinals at least a couple games. Due to the remaining guaranteed money on his contract, cutting Palmer is not an option in 2017. It might be in 2018, though. Jay Cutler is a strong-armed quarterback who loves to push the ball down the field. This fits perfectly with what Bruce Arians wants from his offense, and Arians may be able to correct some of Cutler’s hesitancy with the ball. Arizona would be a great situation for Cutler, but he may have to take backup money to make it happen.

San Francisco 49ers: 9/2
New York Jets: 5/1
Cleveland Browns: 16/3
Houston Texans: 11/2
Arizona Cardinals: 7/1
Buffalo Bills: 9/1
Chicago Bears: 33/1
FIELD: 10/1

Photo Credit: Keith Allison (flickr) [https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/2.0/].